Santa Anita Derby
 

Boy did Baffert screw me by changing out Maymun for Wynstock. In what was a predictable race is now chaos. Two clear betting favorites in Imagination at 8-5 and Stronghold at 9-5.

:1: Curlin's Kaos 20-1 ML Get this horse back in with Cal breds! Was no match for Stronghold last time and won't be again today. TOSS

:2: Tapalo 5-1 ML Dueled with Imagination every step of the way back in December and is working fast for this. Don't like that the jock has never rode him but can give the top two all they can handle. SOLID!

:3: Stronghold 5-2 ML I was all over him in the Sunland Derby and he ran a great race. The advantage he has over Imagination is that he will run his race no matter what unlike Imagination. THE PICK

:4: Imagination 8-5 ML The problem here is that if Wynstock does get the lead he isn't going to challenge him until that one gets passed. Baffert knows Wynstock is a one dimensional horse. This horse has heart and will be tough to keep out of the trifecta.

:5: Wynstock 8-1 ML Without the lead he is a claimer with the lead he can be tough to run down. Just worked 46 flat so expect him to gun it to the lead and hope for the best. I just don't think he can withstand the pressure at this distance. Either put him on top or toss him out of the top three altogether. I lean towards the latter.

:6: Tessuto 10-1 ML Rispoli, his only rider chose the :2: over him. That should be all you need to know. TOSS

:7: McVay 5-1 ML I will streak across a racetrack naked if this one is third choice or 5-1 or below. He has lost to Baffert's Wine Me Up, Maymun, Nysos, Imagination. Still a maiden and they need to drop him into a maiden race that does not have a Baffert horse in it. The trainer is ice cold this meet. Christina Blacker was talking this one up like he was Secretariat, not sure how she came to love him so much last race. TOSS

:8: E J Won the Cup 15-1 ML Has to have the lead and isn't getting it without expending too much energy. Probably runs last! TOSS

The play here is to split the favorites with the :2: or put him on top of the two favorites. :3::2::4:

I see :5: Wynstock having a legit shot in here. Not getting 8/1.

This is an extremely weak Santa Anita Derby, and very telling of the times.

Still confused about Dettori coming back to America to get a Derby horse, and now a year later is on a Baffert in his last chance to get to the Kentucky Derby this year.

Probably be on the :2::5: and :8: in some form or fashion.

Disinterested here lately......
 

Haven't really been paying much attention to "Road to KY Derby" news.
What I do know, however, is that betting a future on a Baffert horse
is like playing the Daily Double. (A) The horse needs to get there and win
(B) Getting there is complicated when the trainer faces being barred.

What a nightmare........:eek:
Wager accordingly. I'll pass.

:4:Imagination, :3:Stronghodl, :2:Tapalo

Dettori on a heater.

Won 6 in a row.

May need to rethink wagers in the Santa Anita Derby. ;)

logical

Good news, I don't have to streak across the track naked. McVay is currently 18-1. How could the idiot ML guy put him 5-1. Matt Carothers this morning was talking him up like Secretariat also. What is with TVG and their infatuation with this horse.

Don't know if he's fast enough but the :6: looked good on the track.

It's a million dollar colt from the Tapit sire line. Hasn't ran like a million bucks yet but sometimes they pop. Not one I'm playing on top but wouldn't be stunned against this somewhat weak field.

:4:-:3:-:5:-:8:-:7:

TVG was fawning all over the :7: right before the race, one guy picked him to win and he ran right where he should have, next to last. The horse should have been 50-1. Stronghold and Imagination gave us a thrilling stretch run. Neither horse ever quits!

Good day for guys like the :8: in either Santa or Bluegrass to boost tris under Chalk.

Bluegrass = cool

Santa = had chips on :2:
Cold tote, 10-1 speed quit

Using the top two as KEYS, this was an easy "riding the coattails super" that paid over $375.00