Two-year old paddock handicapping
 

Two questions I'm hoping to get you all's insight into:

1) What are the most important things (physicality, behavior, etc.) to look for when handicapping two-year olds (in particular two-year old first time starters) in the paddock and walking ring?

2) Perhaps a more general question, but are there any trainer-intent observables you look for as well in the paddock or post-parade? For example, if a trainer has two horses entered and spends more time with one than the other is that a potential signal. If the trainer leaves the saddling to someone else vs. doing it on their own, etc.

As always, appreciate any thoughts you might have on these questions. Hoping to find some way to pick a winner for once in the two-year old races! :D

I use Sire Ratings in order to see how well the Sire/Damsire/Broodmare Sire does for FTS but also for on Turf, Synthetic, and Off Track plus seeing if the pedigree shows any specialists on Turf Sprints/Routes or Stamina Index "1"'s


In the walking ring here is what to look for a good 2yo:

Little sweat: A lot of it= toss!
The horse has bounce in step and is playful with caretaker
Nice "car-like" shine to his/her coat
Ears up with being alert to all surroundings with head held high
If the horse's tail or mane is braided= connections have high hopes for it today!
Legs are looking sharp and clean; Watch and see how the horse behaves with stepping around
Has good muscle especially in the legs neck and butt area(s) but not too much
Not overly fat anywhere and is fit (looking for smaller well bred horses)
The horse warms up well with the outrider and does not act up at any point of a warm-up
The horse shows no aggression or anger to anything; Is calm cool and collected :cool:

I probably missed a few things above but that is what I can think of right now

Another thing to note is seeing how much the horse went at auction because if the Sire has a big stud fee and the horse is sold for less; there is definitely something wrong that drove down the price of this horse

Also, look at the workouts I like to see evenly spaced out workouts for horses prepping for their first race and like to see sharp times too which helps their chances today!

If a trainer has 2 entered (uncoupled) always take the higher-priced horse as this will put you at a bigger price vs the shorter price that everyone else is on plus this horse wins more often than not!

Hope this helps sorry lots of info :)

This is awesome. Thanks much, Checkmark! A lot of good stuff to digest here.

You are very welcome CBY!

I tried to stuff as much knowledge that I knew (or at least "figure") what to look for in 2yo horses

You can go to websites like OBS SALES and watch the two year old in training videos. I look for a long stride and I like to see horses that did their furlong or two without the rider using the whip - the less active the rider, the better. I also watch the gallop out and I look for confirmation, such as muscularity, nice size hind and neck, etc.

Cool. I didn't realize this, Pandy. Thanks for the info. I'll check this out.

maybe you could post a link?
I could not find any video at obssales.com
OTC workouts redirects to equibase, which is not video


that site led me to some good links that I was unaware of though.
thanks
thoroughbreddailynews.com

https://www.obssales.com/aprresults/2022/

Broken down by Hip #er with all Sex/Sire/Dam/State/Consignor/Buyer/Price

Next to the horses Hip #er you can see videos on Walk as well as video on workouts!

same as most

is a shoe or tooth falling off?

is short odds and looks awful?

otherwise all you have is stats and limited works videos. These have to also be very mispriced, or you end up betting a brilliant sales work, at low odds, without knowing if the horse is a racehorse.

There is a lot to physicality. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. Study it like it is of the utmost importance. It is. Study from mentors like Bonnie Ledbetter and Joe Takich.

If you see a negative sign or even a rare and questionable sign, downgrade the horse significantly.

I recommend getting as much of a look as possible. If you can get a good view of the walk in from the barn, do it! Then watch the paddock and the post parade. The warmup is also important if you think you can still get down a wager.

It makes a lot of difference to be on track.

My best super scores have been on young maidens with a lot of 1st'ers in the field based solely on physicality and body language.

Thanks, CheckMark!

This is good advice. Thanks!

Agree. Thanks!

I like looking at muscling in hindquarters and horse attitude/professionalism

I consider betting action -> will-pays and early action
I watch previous races if they have them



the following has some 'handicapping' ideas (a podcast with nothing to see)

Thanks for sharing this, Dave. I'll take a listen. Appreciate your help!