- - TOGA Trends
( http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=171845)
TOGA Trends
After 3 weeks, some trends using BRIS data.
Dirt sprints
Looking at top 3 prime power, top 2 SR last race, 45% winners [33 races]
Bet $30 Ret $97.10 +67.10
Dirt routes
20 OUT OF 27 [74%] won by top 2 prime power
Bet $108 Ret $131.80 +23.80
Turf sprints
9 0f 18 races [50%] won by top 2 ACL
Bet $72.00 Ret $93.40 +21.40
Turf routes
CC and ACL the most predictive, but no profits
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| BarchCapper |
08-03-2022 04:56 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
(Post 2821564)
After 3 weeks, some trends using BRIS data.
Dirt sprints
Looking at top 3 prime power, top 2 SR last race, 45% winners [33 races]
Bet $30 Ret $97.10 +67.10
|
The others were clear to me - this one is a little fuzzier. I'm reading it as taking the top 3 prime power, and out of those top 3 adding the filters that they also needed to be in the top 2 speed ratings last race, and have a 45% winning percentage?
If that's right - is that winning percentage filter exclusively dirt sprints?
Thanks! |
The winner ranked 1-2-3 PP AND 1-2 SR.
If the top 2 SR horse are not in the top 3 PP, no bet.
I calculated everything exclusively to dist/surf, but not all races were used. Races with a few FTS were not used, off turf with massive scratches, etc, but most "playable" races.
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| BarchCapper |
08-03-2022 05:52 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
(Post 2821586)
The winner ranked 1-2-3 PP AND 1-2 SR.
If the top 2 SR horse are not in the top 3 PP, no bet.
I calculated everything exclusively to dist/surf, but not all races were used. Races with a few FTS were not used, off turf with massive scratches, etc, but most "playable" races.
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That's more clear - thank you! |
| ranchwest |
08-03-2022 06:53 PM |
Probably a dumb question, but what is ACL? And CC?
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| CheckMark |
08-03-2022 07:10 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by ranchwest
(Post 2821605)
Probably a dumb question, but what is ACL? And CC?
|
ACL- Average Competitive Level based on the Race Ratings when finishing in the money
CC- Current Class is based on horses' most recent starts with more importance on the most recent starts at or near today's distance |
| ranchwest |
08-03-2022 07:26 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by CheckMark
(Post 2821609)
ACL-Average Competitive Level based on the Race Ratings when finishing in the money
CC-Current Class is based on horses' most recent starts with more importance on the most recent starts at or near today's distance
|
Thanks! |
| ranchwest |
08-03-2022 10:34 PM |
Is the reference here to the actual BRIS Race Rating and Class Rating? Wouldn't it be better to use the Speed Par for both measures? I find that the listed Par Race Rating and Par Class Rating are often much different from the ratings found among the horses in the field. Any thoughts?
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| Jeff P |
08-04-2022 01:53 PM |
Tom, I ran a similar query for SAR dirt routes using top 2 HDW PSR.
Code:
UDM Definition: SAR-DirtRouteTest
Divisor: # UDM Def Divisor: 999
Surface Req: D*
Distance Req: R
HDW PSR: MinRank= 1 MaxRank= 2 MinVal= -999 MaxVal= 999 MinGap= -999 MaxGap= 999
Running Style: ALL
Track: SAR
Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999 Odds Cap: None
Show on Text Report: False
Filters Applied: -DATE: 7/14/2022 to 7/31/2022
Dirt (All*) ROUTES (From Index File: C:\2022\Q3_2022\pL_profile.txt)
Track: SAR
Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 130.80 111.70 89.50
Bet -112.00 -112.00 -112.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L 18.80 -0.30 -22.50
Wins 20 32 33
Plays 56 56 56
PCT .3571 .5714 .5893
ROI 1.1679 0.9973 0.7991
Avg Mut 6.54 3.49 2.71
From there I broke the above HDW PSR rank <= 2 data out by rank for a handful of other factors and pasted the breakout data into a text file: here.
Code:
By: CompoundAP Rank
Rank P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 28.00 34.00 1.8235 10 17 .5882 1.6471 6.20
2 19.30 20.00 1.9650 5 10 .5000 1.4000 7.86
3 -24.00 24.00 0.0000 0 12 .0000 0.0000 0.00
4 0.50 16.00 1.0313 3 8 .3750 1.0500 5.50
5 -6.40 12.00 0.4667 1 6 .1667 0.4667 5.60
6 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
7 1.40 6.00 1.2333 1 3 .3333 0.9333 7.40
8 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
9 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
10 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
11 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
12 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
Code:
By: CompoundE2 Rank
Rank P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 28.70 32.00 1.8969 9 16 .5625 1.5750 6.74
2 10.20 20.00 1.5100 5 10 .5000 1.4000 6.04
3 -8.50 18.00 0.5278 2 9 .2222 0.6222 4.75
4 -2.80 20.00 0.8600 2 10 .2000 0.5600 8.60
5 -6.20 12.00 0.4833 1 6 .1667 0.4667 5.80
6 -0.60 8.00 0.9250 1 4 .2500 0.7000 7.40
7 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000 0.00
8 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
9 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
10 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
11 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
12 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
Speaking from my own personal experience here:
It's not terribly difficult to create rules based spot plays that point out +ROI areas in the past.
I'm often amazed that seemingly obvious factors are not just overlooked, but to the extent they are sometimes overlooked.
That said, most of the time, when I subject rules based spot plays to forward testing:
The +ROI is seldom repeated any time soon.
But every once in a while, the shelf life is longer than you might think.
And I ask myself:
What confounding factors are out there making that possible?
Haven't subjected this to any kind of forward testing yet.
But either way --
Tom, interesting thread. :)
-jp
. |
Dirt routes now 23 of 30 top 2 PP.
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| ranchwest |
08-04-2022 09:59 PM |
Jeff, have you analyzed the power number in combination with either jockey or trainer numbers? If so, do those findings also tend to regress to the mean? I ask because it seems to me that at Saratoga an unusually high percentage of races are won with top jocks and trainers. Admittedly, that is based on perception and not actual statistical studies.
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| stok$$ |
08-04-2022 10:46 PM |
Hi, I have a dumb question... what does TOGA stand for?
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| geroge.burns99 |
08-04-2022 10:49 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by stok$$
(Post 2821835)
Hi, I have a dumb question... what does TOGA stand for?
|
Saratoga |
| ranchwest |
08-05-2022 12:13 AM |
Or a party where people wear sheets and drink beer. :lol:
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| stok$$ |
08-05-2022 09:36 AM |
Oh, now it makes sense. Thanks :bang:
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| CheckMark |
08-06-2022 11:22 AM |
Churchill Downs shippers on the main track
Wins: 14 for 91 (15%)
Itm (WPS): 50 for 91 (55%)
Churchill Downs shippers on Turf
Wins: 6 for 48 (12%)
Itm (WPS): 13 for 48 (27%)
In conclusion, bet the CD shippers on the main track WPS but DON'T bet them on the Turf at all
Other horses to pass
main track
Parx 0 for 12
Woodbine 0 for 3
Oaklawn 0 for 3
Turf
Horseshoe Indianapolis 0 for 9
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| PalaceOfFortLarned |
08-06-2022 11:31 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by CheckMark
(Post 2822138)
Churchill Downs shippers on the main track
Wins: 14 for 91 (15%)
Itm (WPS): 50 for 91 (55%)
Churchill Downs shippers on Turf
Wins: 6 for 48 (12%)
Itm (WPS): 13 for 48 (27%)
In conclusion, bet the CD shippers on the main track WPS but DON'T bet them on the Turf at all
Other horses to pass
main track
Parx 0 for 12
Woodbine 0 for 3
Oaklawn 0 for 3
Turf
Horseshoe Indianapolis 0 for 9
|
Excellent stuff.
By chance you have numbers for MTH shippers?
Also wondering about foreign bred horses on turf at Toga. |
| CheckMark |
08-06-2022 12:07 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned
(Post 2822141)
Excellent stuff.
By chance you have numbers for MTH shippers?
Also wondering about foreign bred horses on turf at Toga.
|
You will have to check back only did those ones now can do the Monmouth shippers after weekend races have run |
| ranchwest |
08-06-2022 01:30 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by CheckMark
(Post 2822138)
Churchill Downs shippers on the main track
Wins: 14 for 91 (15%)
Itm (WPS): 50 for 91 (55%)
Churchill Downs shippers on Turf
Wins: 6 for 48 (12%)
Itm (WPS): 13 for 48 (27%)
In conclusion, bet the CD shippers on the main track WPS but DON'T bet them on the Turf at all
Other horses to pass
main track
Parx 0 for 12
Woodbine 0 for 3
Oaklawn 0 for 3
Turf
Horseshoe Indianapolis 0 for 9
|
This could possibly be related to the poor condition of the CD turf course, which was closed at the end of the season. |
| CheckMark |
08-06-2022 11:59 PM |
Here is what I have so far for Monmouth shippers up to date (to 8/6)
Dirt
23 starts
1 win (4%)
9 itm finishes (39%)
Turf
25 starts
3 wins (12%)
8 itm finish (32%)
Sorry if the numbers are wrong I was staying up late and probably missed a few lol
Hope this helps!
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| geroge.burns99 |
08-07-2022 06:26 AM |
1 Attachment(s)
here's an up to date list of shippers....
circled in RED are First Time starters...
As you can see ...
Dont bet shippers outside BEL & CD
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ranchwest
(Post 2821841)
Or a party where people wear sheets and drink beer. :lol:
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And wear pretty hats... One track I have to visit one of these days! |
| lamboguy |
09-01-2022 05:14 PM |
Acacia--GREAT CALL
in the 8th race she told all that listened that SHORT SUMMER DRESS didn't look great in the paddock. i didn't catch it myself until the mare walked out on the track and i watched her and she looked awful. i wound up playing Miceli's horse win and place and caught a $4.90 place ticket. i know it doesn't sound that great, but i was close to going in on the 2/5 horse that ran last!
thank you Acacia
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Quote of the meeting
D Wayne Lukas, after winning the 5th today with a horse he and his wife own, on them being co-owners, "I always let her have my way!" :lol:
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