The Mystery of Pace Figures
 

Well the big debates used to be on picking pace lines. Now that has seemed to have faded. There has been a lot of movement for using the last race or the next to last race. It's a kind of pace form idea. But that's not my problem here. My problem is in reading the tea leaves of pace. One hears lone pace or early pace or in the lead at the second call or ability time. All great concepts after the race. What about before the race? Can that lone speed hold out? Or can the closer far behind at the second call catch up? If you think you have a handle on this, please explain reading the tea leaves.

Thanks

BTW, I use key race(similar distance and same surface) for my pace selections.

Now that you have Pace View in your tool box, perhaps you'll discover some answers to your questions

Pace handicapping can be used in two ways; predicting the future...and understanding the past. I use it mainly to understand the past...because understanding what really happened in the past is, IMO, of paramount importance if we are to endeavor to make predictions about the future.

Without thorough pace analysis, the horseplayer misses too many things about the conditions which affected the horses' prior races...and he can't make the most accurate prediction possible concerning the state that these horses find themselves in today.

I am checking it out. A simple Pace View power pick play, picked 3 out of 9 races. That's good without using anything else. And to study pace was why, I bought it. But pace is still a mystery to me.

I'm hearing that it explains how a speed figure was earned. And this is good information. But it is still mysterious to me.

Don't worry, Al...you are still a young man. You'll eventually figure it out. :)

I don't know. All I can say is that I factor pace in a comprehensive formula, but believe the true have of pace might be getting a picture of today's race in a way that doesn't involve numbers. And young, I'm not.

If you are going to get into projecting pace, I think it also makes sense to get comfortable categorizing running styles. Horses will typically only run as fast early as required to get the desired position. Pace figures are measuring how fast they had to run to get that position, but not necessarily how fast they could have run if desired or whether they are comfortable sitting off the pace and finishing well.

I look at speed points, raw early fractions and "class" of the early types.

Well said. I'm with you. I think there is some value in the latter, but the former is the most important.

This is actually quite brilliant.

Welcome back, Thask.

Isn't this just the opposite of what he stated?

Yes but you were sharp enough to know what I meant :)

As Dave said, this is absolutely BRILLIANT.

This is why it's important to know everything about each line.

1) Who was in the race that this horse ran in?
2) What form were they in?
3) Who was out clean from the gate?
4) Who was bumped, rated, choked or ortized?
5) How was the track playing for that race?
6) How was the wind a factor for that specific race?
7) Was there a timer malfunction? (not kidding)
8) Was the run up, the true run up?
9) What were the motivations of the competition that day?

etc etc etc etc.

By understanding all those components, then one can truly understand what each running line and corresponding pace line/speed fig/performance fig means.

Each running line is a chapter of a horse's life and what was happening ALL AROUND the horse's life.

To credit and compliment what Thaskalos said, without thorough analysis of the past, the human brain can't possibly make the best possible guestimate of today's situation.

I think a concept that causes many confusion is that of a horse running independently of its jockey (its "preferred running style"), rather than at the direction of its jockey. You seem to be asking if a way exists to accurately predict the interactions of various preferred running styles (and the pace figures associated with them) in an upcoming race, using "pace lines" from previous races.

In (really) broad brush scenarios, yes. Whether that information will provide you with useful foreknowledge of the race winner is another situation entirely, and one in which I tend to agree with CX Wong's opinion (as stated in Precision) that there is little credible support for the use of "pace analysis" as a predictor.
https://www.amazon.com/Precision-Sta.../dp/1432768522