At-the-track advantages
 

I managed to find some old threads about visually handicapping physicality in the paddock and warmups, etc., with the mixed opinions you'd expect. But I'm still intrigued by the possibility that actually showing up at the track and paying attention gives you a potential edge over the track feed player.

My local track happens to be Laurel, which might be a good case as an overlooked track (most folks there play simulcast elsewhere, it seems). Last Sunday had a pretty good turnout, and there were maybe a dozen people studying the horses in the paddock. Lets say a third of those were hired hands for syndicates and whatnot. Say another third were looking at the horsies and another third were garden variety punters. That puts you in a small club of pretty good company.

But what do you look for? Even I thought I could discern some useful differences in a maiden race. Some horses would even look at you funny in the eye, whereas others seemed more focused. Some where sweaty and worked up and gnashing at the bit, while some were moping around like Eeyore. But for experienced runners, they came in different shapes and sizes but less varied behaviors that were pretty hard to assess as favorable or unfavorable to their prospects of running well 10 minutes hence.

I know we've covered this before, but with all the data sources and number crunching and whales and robots and Bayesian methods and whatnot, it just seems really compelling to look for an edge by studying the animals in person, literally just out of arm's reach, and a good bit out of sight of the video. And you might even catch some useful bits of information on the video.

All that said, I really only get to the track a few times a year, but I'd like to make the most of it when I do. How do you leverage your presence at the track for success at the windows? How do you handicap and wager differently at the track than you do remotely?

I don't put much weight on most of the things you mentioned. For me the advantage of being at the track does not happen on race day. It happens in the mornings during the week. You get to know each horse and how he is being brought along, how he performs in gallops and works. Times are relatively meaningless unless you know HOW he did it.
Non-race days on the backside is where you get the biggest advantage being at the track.

Good point about the older horses. They are hard to visually analyze. A horse that's raced 70 times is not going look that eager but he may love to run nonetheless.

Maidens or younger horses in general, I guess you could void a bet if a horse is very washy and really looks ragged, earns pinned back, badly washed out. However, my general rule of thumb, if I plan on betting a horse and it's a longshot, I don't really care how it looks. I'd prefer the horse to look great, but I'll still bet it. If the horse is 2-1 and looks terrible, I will void my bet.

The bottom line, there are a few people who are very good at paddock viewing but most of us aren't. Many horses that look great run poorly, that's the truth. And horses that are badly washed out do win their share of races.

As far as at-the-track inspection of horses, I don't know if it's still in print, but you might try to find a copy of the hardcover book The Body Language of Horses by the late handicapping author Tom Ainslie and body language specialist Bonnie Ledbetter. I would think that there also must be other more recent video references on the subject by other individuals available from outlets such as American Turf Monthly magazine or Gambler's Book Club in Las Vegas.

when you watch works its important to know who the horse has worked with. then you have to know how much water the horse drank after the work, then most importantly you have to know if the horse left food in his feed tub the morning after the breeze and more importantly how he ate the second day after the work.

on the day of the race when you look at horses in the paddock and on the track you have to be able to differentiate between a horse that is relaxed or nervous.

if you are looking at older horses you have to follow the horse from prior trips to the paddock and take great notes and know what you are comparing.

some of these things you can take for granted when you are dealing with top notch trainer's that have a history of knowing what they are doing like Baffert and Pletcher. but everyone knows that and the price on their horses are very low and tough to make money betting on.

Another writer who focuses on the physicality of horses is Joe Takach.

Step one is to go to the top of this page and click on the word "Home" in the middle of the green banner across the top. On the home page scroll down on the far right until you see the box titled "Horse Race Reading Room" and click on "Joe Takach Articles". On the drop down list, click on "Adding Physicality".

If you want to go further with those concepts after reading those articles, since physicality is a visual thing, take a look at this:

http://gamblersbookclub.com/BEAT-THE...l#.VcrNKJdyWns

This DVD bills itself as a method to analyze the physicality of horses via streaming video, but that is difficult if not impossible due to the fact that the guys at TVG are much more interested in promoting their Pick 10 tickets than actually looking at live animals.

The DVD does however present a wealth of visual examples of the good and bad physical aspects of horses discussed in the articles. The DVD really drives home the things discussed in the articles. But you have to be at the track, at the paddock, to see that.

My view is that physical analysis of a horse isn't going to give you a winner in and of itself, but it can eliminate a horse that you considered a contender based on the PPs, or cause you to double check a horse you had written off. But you can't do it via the live feed. You gotta be there.

Here is an article from drf about the subject:

http://www.drf.com/news/eye-beholder-what-look-race


You can buy the Body Language of Horses on Amazon for a penny. Ledbetter also has a video with Chris McCarron on sale at American Turf Monthly.

I believe Paul Mellos had a video on body language but right now the only Mellos video I see is his trip handicapping video.

Here's another about Takach.

http://www.drf.com/news/using-physic...avoid-bad-bets

Thanks for the sources. Looks like there's something there worth learning and applying during an occasional day at the track, or even via the track feed. But it sounds like the real advantages of in-person presence and inspection come cumulatively, over time. Even listening to Maggie Wolfendale, she's always saying, "compared to last time I saw him..."

Another good one I've found from the horseplayers now website. Caton Bredar has a nice video on there site and youtube about physicality. I also remember viewing a video where Jeremy Plonk also discussed it and even had some helpful videos showing the post parade.

Extreme example- back in the early 1980's there was this multiple grade 1 mare on the S CA circuit named Avigaition & she'd come out to the walking ring shivering & dripping sweat around her middle, but she'd go out & run her race. Only if you had seen her before would you know that it's no big deal.

Now if you had something like that today the TVG talking heads would say it was an autotoss without knowing that. Only if you're on track do you get a feel of how someone looks from race to race, is there something new with the way they're acting ? Have they always been calm in the ring & now they're grinding that bit like there's no tomorrow ? Wild eye ? Ears flat when they've been forward before ? Dappled out when the coat had been dull before ?

It's obvious that the on-track viewing of the animals is a huge advantage. But it's a huge inconvenience to us as well...so, we elect to downplay its importance. :)

:1: I attended a seminar where he was one of the speakers. He's a true horseplayer character and passionate about physicality etc. I still use some of the things he mentioned.

I've mentioned this before ..... look up a thread with the Trainer's Edge in the title or search YouTube.

:2: I agree with your advice.

That's the key - to take note of any change, positive or negative.

I have said this many times before as I used to subcribe to his services back in the day. When he observed that a winner was exhausted by the race, he almost never repeated his performance in his next start, usually as the favorite.

Gallop outs. You can watch them completely.

Come backs, or whatever you call it when the horse comes back and gets unsaddled.

I use Gallop Outs a lot and they work. I've seen a horse reel off 3 straight wins, gallop out great each time except for the last. When that horse comes back dropping or at the same level, goodbye, throw him/her out and 90% of the time, they lose.

Now, I've seen many horses gallop out poorly all the time. In those cases, you just ignore the poor gallop out. Important to take notes.

2) I was at AQU this past winter. Watched a horse being walked down for the next race. There's something about watching them walk without the saddle. This horse was bowing his neck, full of muscle,etc. I ran in to see who the 4 horse was. It was Pletcher FTS who was dead on the board. He dominated with an awesome performance going 2 turns. Paid $15 bucks in a 7 horse field.

Just 2 examples of the benefit of being on track.

Oh, 1 more....

Franco went down in an accident this past winter. I heard the EMTs talking on the walkie talkie. One EMT said: The guy on the 2 said get me up, I gotta get dressed for the next race, I have a winner.

It was a Violette FTS who dominated. Paid $8 bucks. I heard the conversation and tripled my bet. I already had the horse singled in all wagers as I knew he was live but the EMT conversation affirmed my thoughts.

Crazy stuff happens at the track. Love it.