GOAT creep
 

Since 2015, we have had 3 "the GOATs:"

American Pharoah

Arrogate

now Justify

I do not mean runners up on the GOAT list, I mean horses heradled as THE GOAT.

It is verboten to disagree with their GOAT status. Even after Arrogate began running decidedly unGOATishly, his GOATness was not challengeable.

I can't remeber such a period, even back in the 70s. Secretariat's being the GOAT has never been able to be challenged, but even at the time Slew's and Affirmed's statuses were challenged. There is still a sizeable "Alydar" was better crowd. Fager was never really granted GOAT status, some still insist Damascus was better. Sunday Silence was never labeled GOAT, and even here just recently the "Easy Goer was better argument" was advanced. Sunday was so dismissed he had to go to Japan. The Bid was never the GOAT. Kelso and John Henry were never the GOAT.

It has never been suggested that Gun Runner was the GOAT, and for the most part saying he was a better horse than the GOAT Arrogate will get you castigated. Chrome certainly has never been offered GOAT status. Nyquist who tied 5 historical precendents, which likely will never be do e again, was mocked and still is.

Most of those who insist tmost fervently that American Pharoah was the GOAT, insist with no irony that Arrogate was also the GOAT, and now do the same with Justify. Perhaps their hostility stems from cognitive dissonance?

Anywho, the GOAT is starting to become whatever horse that Santa Anita Baffert fan boy clocker, who keeps getting breeding kickbacks says they are. They also all have gaudy figs and either slow times or in Arrogate's case to have gone from a good horse to a great horse to a horse that couldn't beat Gunnevera in 13 months.

GOAT creep just struck me as funny...

I've never heard any of these horses claimed to be anywhere close to GOAT type status. Anywhere.

Arrogate ran some top end races that will be remembered for years, but AP will never likely breach anybodies Top 10 list of any credibility, and Justify has only ran 4 races in his brief career.

Where are you hearing such talk?

I know

Notice its never prefaced by any articles?

Arrogate though, his 4 race streak is as impressive a set of 4 races as I have seen, and after that Dubai race he was at the top of my list the last couple decades. Dubai seems to get him, but man he was really good. Dusted a horse like Gun Runner multiple times.

If Arrogate can lose the San Diego then Justify can lose the preakness, which would be a heck of a lot less shocking (foot bruise, quick turn around, etc).

Correct, Justify could just become another FuPeg, or even Barbaro.

Nobody knows just yet, as he sure didn't beat much in those early races.

Coincidentally
 

Bloodhorse posted this article today, it is a 40yr old reprint:

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...s-triple-crown

I think one reason that horses were so rarely even mentioned in GOAT company was because it was based on the opinions of trainers and owners to a large extent, they'd compliment Slew, but they were pretty stingy after that. And the public debate was muted by the slow speed of communication.

I think what is happening now is largely a function of irrational exuberance and the Star of Bethelhem effect, and I don't think it is a coincidence that it all begins with the same trainer and the same clocker. I'm a transactions lawyer, there are no coincidences when money is involved.

Star of Bethlehem effect:

"Do you hear what I hear?" says the night wind trainer says to the baby lamb clocker. "Do you see what I see?" says the baby lamb clocker to the fig maker shepard boys. "Do you know what I know?" say the shepard boy fig makers to the mighty king internet echo chamber. "Listen to what I say" says the mighty king internet echo chamber to itself.

People had heard of American Pharoah, Arrogate, and Justify before they broke their maidens. They were heradled as phenoms after their MSWs, and GOATS after their first major races. People weren't even willing to say Slew was equal to Secretariat after he swept the TC undefeated.

We know Slew was a great horse because he raced against another TC winner. We know Affirmed was a great horse because he raced against another TC winner and Spectacular Bid. American Pharoah raced against Dortman, Frosted, and Keen Ice--there is not a hall of famer among them. I doubt you can string together 10 graded stakes wins from all combinec. Arrogate raced against 2 hall of famers, but a career of 4 great races and 3 meh-to-bad races does not great make. It is too soon for Justify, but he fits the Star of Bethlehem pattern, so much so that the lead story at Bloodhorse right now is how the skies parted and the sun came out to bless him while he trained today.

That is not organic. And it is why some people, a miniority apparently, are pretty cynical about it all.

GOAT: Greatest of All Time

You don't even have to type the whole statement into Goolge
 

You want to play that game? I do nothing but research for a living, I can post article after article until PaceAdvantage and CJ ban me right along with LoneF.

The following searchs took me two and a half seconds.

In fact on Google, the second autofill choice for American Pharoah is "American Pharoah Greatest of All Time"


https://www.google.com/search?q=amer...obile&ie=UTF-8

Additionally, you can listen to the race calls of Justify's SA derby, American Pharoah's BCC, and Arrogate's DBW.

Caveat: Ok, you're right Arrogate has to share GOAT status with Man O'War. I am almost cetain I remember posts and threads here saying Arrogate was Man O'War right, right along with the DWC announcer, but it may have been Thorograph. You can find umpteen Justify may be the best, is going to be the best etc. throughout the TC forum here. Umpteen "Best I've ever seen and I'm olds" for all three. PaceAdvantage and/CJ over in the TC forum just jumped on someone who said American Pharoah wasn't all that.

Here's another:

https://www.google.com/search?q=arro...obile&ie=UTF-8

Bob Baffert himself said Arrogate was the best horse since Secretariat and that Justify is the equal of Arrogate, thus the co-best horse since Secretariat--before his KY Derby.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/h...507-story.html


http://www.star-telegram.com/sports/...210638054.html

Wanna know the difference between Bafferts 3 greatest horses ever, and Point Given, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, War Emblem...they aren't still at stud.

Do you guys not read what each other writes? Its not even allowed to say Justify is slow, or at least not fast. That's some pretty powerful dogma.

Just a few things. First, I can't ban anyone here. I don't have that power. Never have and don't want it.

Second, who did I jump on about American Pharoah? I'm trying to figure out what that means. I honestly don't recall. I want to see what you consider jumping on someone

Third, you can pretty much say what you want around here within reason. But that doesn't mean when people make statements others can't give their opinions too.

What I find funny is the "Justify is slow" camp is still up and running apparently despite him dusting the field in the Derby after pressuring a very, very fast pace. But hey, everyone is entitled to an opinion and I hope they back them up at the windows. I know I do mine virtually every single day.

Yup, no bias here.

Maybe Justify runs very poorly, gets pulled, etc, on Saturday you can toast yourself with a drink, cmon here and have a good laugh at all the supposed fanboys.

What's the big deal? The Europeans do this every year.

Regardless, Arrogate's Travers was one of the greatest performances of all time. He followed that up with there consecutive devastating wins.

For four races, there weren't very many horses who ever walked the earth that could beat him.

There were only three horses on dirt since the turn of the century that could compete with the legends of yesteryear: Arrogate, Rachel Alexandra and Ghostzapper.

All three were greats.

Rachel only at 3, and the other 2 for only a few month span.

Compared to the greats of yesteryear who showed greatness over a far longer period of time.

At least Rachel and GZ were explicable why their terms were short or limited to a specific year's campaign. I put an asterisk beside every Baffert "great."

The Greatest American racehorse of all time.

In this year of 2018.

There are still only 2 (and those two are interchangeable)

1. Man O war
1A. Secretariat


Justify??

LOL.

Allan

No one except the original poster said Justify was one of the greatest horses of all time. You're arguing against the breeze.

Its a much better narrative though for the "see I told ya so" crowd.

No one is saying that about Justify, at least the professionals that I follow.

I have to say this so someone doesnt link a article from Mike Battaglia.

All the GOAT's had long careers.

I wouldn't worry about it. The people that actually win, need "fans" like this. I read a lot of it and realize why 90% of the people lose. How does any of that crap help a person handicap? People go on and on about this horse or that horse. I mean, WTF does GOAT really mean? Its fan boy talk.........there's one every year! According to some of the fanatics.

If one can't pick up the form and figure out who the chalk is in these races and if one doesn't know who these horses are what chance do they have at being a handicapper? Yet, people go on about them like they are giving valuable information. I mean, I admire these horses but i understand you are not going to make much hay with them....unless they lose. But somehow the media, the public touts and the fans think its a secret. Its like that in other sports too. I love betting the NFL, like I don't know Tom Brady is good.....everyone does.....but only the sophisticated gambler realizes you make your ROI when he loses. Some people never can get past the obvious and they are stuck on it. This week, its wow, they (the Cavs) have LeBron James. Why are they getting an ass beating??/lol..yeah, and their defense has stunk for 2 years but they play in a weak ass conference. The "GOAT" will get it done! Should I hold my breath on that?...:lol:

If one cant figure out who the chalk is and then see past that........one has no shot at betting. There was a paid "expert moron" on ESPN just now saying everyone defected from the Preakness because Justify is in..........Really? Like this has not been the norm for years now. Its the reason the drunk that owned California Chrome cried on TV after he lost the Belmont. They rest and come back now if they lose the derby. That's what people do now....they lose and skip. But this year its out of "fear".??????? Its a riot! Arrogate was good, Pharoah was good but it makes you squat at the windows.....and furthermore, its hard to compare these 4 and 5 race wonders to horses that won 20 to 30 starts.

I wouldn't get all worked up about it, its meaningless, hilarious and never gets it done at the windows.

Excuse me now, I have to read why Bolt D' Oro is the best thing since Real Quiet because he ran a 103.....whatever the hell that means.......he actually won nothing! :bang::cool:

Some very knowledgeable people think CITATION was better than Secretariat.

Secretariat LOST FIVE TIMES. Unbelievable as that may seem.

I think a case can be made that Arrogate's World Cup win was a GOAT race. Considering the trip, the stage and the horse he beat, it was the kind of effort you would see from a GOAT. But that effort, seemingly, took so much out of him that you can't call him the GOAT. But on that night, he was the best I've ever seen.

Its too bad what happened to him after Dubai, his 4 race streak were as good as I seen from a horse in 25 years. Fast, legit, over came trouble. Those 4 wins were not hype.

When he was right he dusted a horse like Gun Runner, not once, but twice. Ran down a completely loose California Chrome. Yea.

The thing is, he isn't comparable to a horse like Affirmed, who had all those wins over Alydar at 2 and 3, and then beat up on everyone, ran fast times, and defeated Spectacular Bid at 4.

He obviously isn't comparable to Secretariat. Or Citation. Or Swaps.

Indeed, he really isn't even comparable to a horse like Cigar, who won 16 races in a row over mostly top competition.

4 great races is not a career. Arrogate was a flash in the pan by traditional racing standards.

I get it, there is no horse that can ever compare to any horse before, oh lets say 1982ish....they are all flash in the pan because they will never race as much.

I said 25 years so I could get away from that discussion.

As my moniker would hint, there's at least one other who I think vies with those two for all-time supremecy.

Game on Dude had a traditional career.

So did California Chrome, really.

It's still possible to do it.

But how do you know his performances weren't artificially enhanced? It's not pulling out of thin air when his trainer had 7 drop dead not too long ago.

You could play that game with any horse from any era. Certainly testing wasn't nearly what it is today 25 years ago. It gets exponentially worse as you go back in time.

Yes and no. Worse testing, but far worse drugs too. Arsenic tonics, for example. Ok. Not sure how that's supposed to help. EPO, cobalt, we know how that truly works to make a horse keep right on rolling.

There are cheats today as well as those who don't cheat. Same as in years past. When we KNOW a trainer is a cheat like we do with Baffert, then it's more than reasonable to be suspect of all his horses' performances.

I don't want to be lumped in with that assumption. Nothing would surprise me either way with any trainer these days.

CITATION won 27 of 29 races as a two and three year-old combined.

19 of 20 in his THREE YO year alone!

No one has ever come close to that. Not even Man o' War!

He far exceeded Secretariat, who won 16 of 21 at two and three combined.

Citation's five year old season is actually underrated too

He set a world record in the mile and would have set two other world records and one track record except he got beat by Noor (one time by a nose).

Citation's owner wanted have the first horse in history to win one million dollars.. and ran him as such, imagine if he would have been a little more patient what the career would have looked like..

Arrogate, Gun Runner, and California Chrome were the best and most consistent of a thoroughly bad group of American older horses over the past 3 seasons.

These horses routinely beat up on horses like Breaking Lucky (1 for 14 lifetime on dirt), Neolithic (non-stakes winner eligible for NW3X), Hoppertunity (a 7yo), Keen Ice (3 for 24 lifetime), Mubtaahij (1 for his last 16), and Win The Space (winless in 2 years, 0 for last 11), and Dortmund (winless since 2015).

Arrogate defeated Gun Runner while that one was clearly a cut below his peak and his stamina suspect. Exaggerator blitzed Gun Runner a couple of times, too, in 2016. In fact Gun Runner's fastest efforts were his final 2 career starts (probably had more left in the tank, should have stayed in training).

California Chrome was never a fast horse and arguably his career was resurrected by the sheer fact that he stayed in training while stronger rivals (Shared Belief) fell by the wayside. The ride he got in the 2016 BC Classic was criminal. If I didn't know any better, I'd say Espinoza got his breeding right to American Pharoah personally from Baffert in the paddock right before the race. From the 5/8 pole to the 1/4 pole he did nothing but look around for Arrogate while floating himself wide.

Gun Runner suddenly got good when he started getting sent to the lead in relatively paceless races in short fields. He had to out-duel Collected a couple of times who was decent for about 4 races, faced claimers in a pair of his stakes wins, and hit the 110+ Beyer range a couple of times. Sounds like Collected should be mentioned in the "great" category himself considering those credentials.

Not sure why the Dubai World Cup holds any real significance in terms of historical importance. It is perennially a weak field made up of turf horses, old horses specifically trotted out during the Dubai carnival to fill races, and decent NA starter or two. Arrogate was bumped at the start and wrangled back and because he collars Gun Runner, he's Secretariat. California Chrome has the saddle slip all the way back into bucking bronco territory and he still wins off by open lengths, I guess he's better than Affirmed.

This is a pretty good analysis IMO.

Spalding, just out of curiousity what horses would you consider as great this Century here in the u.s.?

Not enough consistency and definitely not enough of the best of the sophomore crops returning to race at 4 and 5 years of age to witness (or designate) as "great".

There have certainly been several "one offs" that put horses on the path, but none that I can see showed the requisite repeatability. Arrogate's Travers, Candy Ride's Pacific Classic, Frosted's Met Mile, Quality Road briefly at 3 and briefly at 4, Aptitude's Jockey Club Gold Cup, Midnight Lute's Forego, and obviously a handful of Ghostzapper races scattered across 3 racing seasons fit the bill. Tiznow was superb at 3, comfortable versus his elders without much foundation, but injury derailed any further development and he won on sheer guts late at 4.

A couple of 3yos would have been interesting to see develop: Point Given, American Pharoah, Afleet Alex, Bernardini, Smarty Jones, and Empire Maker.

Among those with a bit of consistency, I don't think we're seeing anything from the 3 discussed in this thread (Gun Runner, Arrogate, California Chrome), that we haven't seen already from horses like Mineshaft, Curlin, Congaree, Medaglia D'Oro, and Lemon Drop Kid.

There is no other explanation for the 7 horses that dropped dead.

Thanks for responding.

This is why I wanted a reference because the definition of great and its usage can lead to much different perceptions.

I generally use great as an adjective to describe something that was much better than average, memorable, or deserving of highlighting to separate from others in similar range.

Under your usage its a much more limited word to be used.

For example, I had a great breakfast this morning. I would remember the place I went and the food I had should anyone ask when or where I had a great breakfast. I could use this description more than once a year should I run into the same type of quality. Its not only reserved for the select few. I have a much broader definition of great.

Likely my great is probably closer to your average. Like Inside Information, who really had a brief career of 17 starts and only 6 grade 1 wins, I would consider her great. A horse like Midnight Lute who 13 starts and 3 grade 1 wins was great IMO.

Usually "great" as applied to an athlete means an all time great, not simply someone who delivers a great performance.

Well, you added "all time" as an adjective to make great more than it is.


According to Dictionary definitions, this is the meaning of great:


ADJECTIVE

1. of an extent, amount, or intensity considerably above the normal or average.
   "the article was of great interest" · [more]
   
   synonyms: considerable · substantial · pronounced · sizeable · [more]
   
   
   
   
2. of ability, quality, or eminence considerably above the normal or average.
   "the great Italian conductor" · [more]
   
   synonyms: prominent · eminent · preeminent · important · [more]
   
   
   
   

As we see, above normal or average is what great is known to be.



I prefer to use excellent and then elite as being above great to mention further and better performances for horses and athletes.

I cant tell you how many times great is used with athletes, I dont except that premise and can record a weeks worth of talk shows on espn and have it uttered 50 times, at least.

Are we gonna have ANOTHER Triple Crown winner?

One High Echelon-like win in a Triple Crown race does not a GOAT candidate make.