Del Mar meet is set to open July 18, 2020
 

Saratoga gets too much attention around here. Let's talk Del Mar.

The fair has already been cancelled. The governor of CA has gone on record saying he doesn't think there will be live attendance at football games in September in his state. Del Mar is HEAVILY reliant on on-track business both in terms of handle as well as non-wagering revenue. Is it even feasible for them to run without fans?

They really should run Del Mar without fans if its possible. If summer racing was relocated to Santa Anita, there would be so many oppressive days with temps hovering around 100.

While Del Mar is indeed heavily reliant on the $20 margaritas to come out ahead, perhaps with less competition, bigger handle can help make up for it. At least a casino isn't needed to be open in order for Del Mar to operate.

I also think there is a lot more community support for racing at Del Mar than there is at Santa Anita, and that will surely factor into a decision to race.

in todays world without sports gambling and people staying in their homes, tracks like Del Mar or even Saratoga at Belmont will out do prior handles without a live crowd. non handle revenues will be missing from this equation though.

The issues are: (1) San Diego County has to approve it (that's what's holding up SA and GG right now), and (2) the Governor has to allow what would be a massive movement of people from LA to San Diego County.

I could see both these questions going either way. Obviously Del Mar is lobbying hard to open.

How much does DEL MAR receive from ADW wagering. The extra handle helps minimal. The adw's get the bulk of the revenues. Do I have the facts correctly stated?

What number do you consider a "massive movement of people"?

Del Mar is lobbying to open, so they must feel they can make the economics work, at least over the long term.

Everyone associated with horse racing who will have to relocate from LA County to San Diego County. That's probably over 500 people who live on track, plus hundreds of horsemen and racing officials.

As of right now most schools and colleges plan on reopening in August and September. How anyone can believe that there will be zero spectator participation in anything by August is strange. Thirty days from now opinions will dramatically change.

So you don't know? Even if it were 1,000 people it should hardly be a concern or a problem.

Decisions made about Del Mar will be based on which way the political winds are blowing. Fear is so prevalent that rational decisions made based on safety might be political suicide for the decision makers.

I have some insider knowledge of this particular decision. While announcements have not yet been made, decisions have. Schools are highly likely to remain closed in the fall, especially in the cities in California.

Saratoga thread closed, so....

NYRA plans to move forward with Spa meet....

https://wnyt.com/saratoga-county-ny-...rce=zetaglobal

You are obviously a very sharp guy and from your other comments I know you follow what's going on in the economy too. I understand the upside of not having to compete with other tracks and other sports gambling. But millions of people are now unemployed, have reduced hours, or are feeling vulnerable at their jobs. That is almost certainly going to be a drag on handle. I'm not sure anyone knows what the net of all this will be, but during the 2008 recession the handle dropped sharply.

Setting aside the nightmare that got us into this mess, we are probably going to learn a few things about how reducing tracks would impact handle per track and how other sports gambling impacts racing.

The good news is that July is still a long way off. The environment in terms of new virus cases could look a LOT different (better) by then if some of the projections are correct.

Still, unless it gets to the point where things are good enough for fans and tourism so the local economy can salvage something from the year, I'm not sure I see the net upside other than the hope that fanless Saratoga would handle a lot more than fanless "Saratoga at Belmont", which I find somewhat suspect.

I feel really bad when I read these stories in upstate NY media. The authors are clearly big homers, hoping beyond hope that this thing they live for every year in their remote region will still happen, and looking for every tea leaf they can attach to.

NYRA has to have contingency plans for anything, but the reality is as of now NYRA can't even stage a maiden claiming race without fans at Belmont. They are WAY away from any actual decision to run big races at Saratoga, no matter what the local boosters in upstate NY media say.

Can you state your opinion without condescension?

This thread is not about Saratoga. It’s about Del Mar.

Why seemingly everyone from coast to coast is obsessed with Saratoga and NYRA is beyond me. Start a new thread about Saratoga.

I want everyone’s opinion on how a grassroots effort led by horsemen in LA county has been completely ignored, keeping Santa Anita from opening. What does that do for Del Mar? Are they supposed to be hopeful they exist in a racing-friendly county like Los Al does? Can an entire state’s industry be held up like that with no recourse?

I’d ask the person with the most knowledge on NY racing to weigh in, considering he lives in CA.

Sorry - the Saratoga thread was shutdown. I didn't want to start a new one, same topic, but you're right.

If the decision has been made why do you qualify as highly likely? Wouldn't it be a done deal if the decision has been made?

There are reasons why some options are kept officially open. Some conferences that everyone knows will be cancelled are still officially on. There are lots of flights scheduled in the late Spring that the airlines know they will cancel.

The information I have is that some major education decisionmakers in California have already decided to keep schools closed in the fall. But the announcement won't come until later on.

That DOES mean that there is a slight, theoretical chance that the decision will reversed. But nobody thinks that will happen.

The stories coming out of upstate NY local media have a pathetic tone. The media is in total denial up there. That's not my doing.

Please read the WNYT article, then you'll realize it isn't full of rah-rah.

Absolutely ridiculous.

Does anyone know when a final decision has to made on whether Del Mar can run and whether it will be with or without fans?

We all know the models being used to project the virus are dependent on what governments do, how people respond, and a lot of subjective assumptions that often turn out to be wrong, but mid July is a long way away.

Here are the projections for CA.

This model is essentially saying that by early July CA will be done with new cases of the virus. In fact, it's saying things will great by the end of May. If that's even close to accurate. Del Mar will be probably running in July and may even be allowed to have fans.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...ica/california


The same is true of NY and Saratoga.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...erica/new-york

Again, these models could be way off. Also, changes in policy to loosen things up and balance economics vs the virus could push these dates out further by exposing more people in May and June, but if they are even close to right we are not that far away from some good news in May.

Not at all. We are going to be distancing here for a LONG time. That's true even if we partially "re-open".

Get used to distance learning, at least in California.

Del Mar running is completely at the discretion of the San Diego County health department. If they authorize it, Del Mar can run.

Del Mar running with spectators isn't happening, as we will still be distancing, but it would be the same health department plus Gavin Newsom who would have to sign off on that.

I'm not sure how you define a "long time," but eventually a vaccine(s) will hit the market. I assume you agree?

That would be great but it would be the first coronavirus vaccine ever. The last time there was a big push for a vaccine was during the AIDS crisis. Still waiting. The good news is that the smartest scientists in the world are all trying to make this happen sooner than later.

That isn't actually true -- check out this article (can't believe it hasn't received more press)….

"Scientists around the world are competing to develop a vaccine to stop the coronavirus, and in this race, a laboratory at Oxford University has a big head start.

...scientists at Oxford’s Jenner Institute had already proved in previous trials that similar inoculations — including one last year against another coronavirus — were harmless to humans.

That has enabled them to leap ahead to the next step and schedule tests involving more than 6,000 people by the end of next month.

the first few million doses of their vaccine could be available by September."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/w...#link-2efc59ae

I think there is a difference in being effective and being harmless to humans. Both are obviously necessary. I should have stated that an effective coronavirus vaccine has never been developed.

It sounds like the Montana lab was practically drowning (in the air) the rhesus macaque monkeys in virus exposure, and they all stayed healthy (small sample size). I believe those type monkeys are used b/c the similarity in their gene makeup and immune systems relative to humans. Give the TV media a day or two, and this study will get a lot of air time, I suspect.

My uninformed guess would be that better treatments are available before a vaccine and then the risk of catching it and having severe complications or dying will be reduced enough that attitudes will change.

DEL MAR and SARATOGA set to open Mid July
 

ALCON:
IMO, if both tracks open in July they will be WITHOUT the attendance of the general public. The ability of a racetrack to maintain "social distancing" is NOT feasible , the normal course of business from standing in line to wager, concession stands even using the rest room are FACTORS that will cause local,state and other health officials to recommend racing without the general public. The governor of New York CUOMO has stated "New York will open in phases , with at LEAST 14 days between each phase". The widely recognized incubation period of coronavirus is 14 days. Saratoga opening in July (since we all are offering our opinion/guess) , based on CUOMO plan , my guess/opinion is NO. I do not have an guess/opinion on Del Mar, however even if I'm WRONG on Saratoga both (Saratoga and Del Mar) will run without the general public

HOPBET

Anyone who agrees with him! :lol:

Unconfirmed report - Santa Anita will be opening for racing soon, as their petition was approved. Can anyone confirm?

Not sure if Santa Anita's particular petition was approved (or even directly considered) at today's board meeting. What was approved was a plan for economic recovery in LA county. It appears that some people are jumping to the conclusion that Santa Anita will be one of the first places in line to reopen. Not sure that's the case, but positive news nevertheless.

This is right. If something comes a long that significantly reduces the death rate, social distancing will become unnecessary. Until then, it is.

There were some good results announced from Gilead on their trials for a drug that I believe treats late stage very serious cases.

I listened to an interview with Mike Milken yesterday (the junk bond guy). He's doing a ton of work tracking all the investment going into treatments and vaccines and how much promise they are all showing. He was very optimistic that some good treatments are on the horizon and not nearly as far off as people think.

class, did he say anything about vaccine maker, Novavax?

Dr. Fauci anounced some good news on the treatment front this morning.

If you want to be an optimist about getting back to some semblance of normal, this is where you want to focus your attention.