Holy Bull Stakes PPs
 

Can Maximus Mischief come from off the pace to win? Looks like 3-4 horses will be vying for the lead into that first turn. Definitely don't love MM's post. Pry going to get strung 4-5 wide unless he is sent hard.

I'm interested in going back to watch replays of Harvey Wallbanger. Might be live coming off that layoff, and should have plenty of pace to run into.

Saturday
 

AM Thunderstorms
77°65°
40%
E 10 mph

He'll be asked to break and be on/near the lead.

It could be a really hot pace, but it could also be a relatively easy opening position for Jose and MM...
Fed Case and Come on Gerry also possibly on the lead.

Hard to play against Maximus Mischief and appears to like the track. Killer workouts... GP 19 January, 58 flat 5f breezing, 12 January 46.4 4 f breezing. Gets Jose Ortiz.



I'll probably pass the race but use him as a single in horizontals.

I wasn't impressed with the final clock in Remsen but cannot ignore the final 3/8th ran in 36.6. The Bris 117 LP supports the effort. The chalk will be very tough to beat with a similar effort. I'm highly skeptical a Harlan's Holiday over Songandaprayer will enjoy Derby distance but that's a bridge to cross another day.

I suspect the :6: will be coming late and would be the next logical play should the :8: not fire his best shot here. I could see the :1::2::7: spice up a tri or super play. The rest would need to show solid improvement to hit the board.

Pletcher comes out w/a nice one . . .
 

Interesting jockey switches in this one.

Ortis (15%) goes from Mihos to Maximus Mischief; JohnnyV (18%) goes from Federal Case to Mihos and Castellano (22%) gets the irons on Federal Case.

Not for certain how it went but it appears that Ortiz picked up the mount on MM, that opened the door for JohnnyV on Mihos and Castellano picked up Federal Case. Why would JohnnyV go from Federal Case to Mihos? I fully expect Javi to be tough on that Pletcher horse.

Agree . . . hard to deny the Into Mischief colt in this one.

:8:
:2:
:1:

So many potential factors but one would think he had an option to stay the horse. Mihos is the stakes winner but he benefited from a hot pace in the Macho Man going 3/4 in 1:10.2 then the final 1/4 in a relatively soft 26.6 after allowing a 2.5 length (half second) adjustment.

The raw clock for Federal Case was a full second faster in spite of a softer pace to the 3/4. He ran the final 1/4 in relatively decent 25.1.

Castellano is hot and his horse does measure well here. I will certainly use him in the gimmicks and wouldn't be that stunned if he did pull an upset. The chalk has been able to walk around the track like his pedestrian 1:14.6 six panel call in the Remsen. He should get some pace pressure here. As such, I doubt I can confidently single the :8: but he will get the most use.

updated
 

Scattered Thunderstorms
77°66°
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:4: Everfast 30-1: Best races have been near the front, try that here and might get vanned off. Toss.

:5: Harvey Wallbanger 15-1: ML a little low. Late runner gets to far back and might clunk in to the super.

:10: Going for Gold 30-1: Still a Maiden. Interesting to see in here but not that interesting. Prep for MSW.

:3: Epic Dreamer 15-1: Jockey change does not matter. Dream away.

:9: Gladiator King 30-1: Best was in the slop. Has to send from the outside, to much for this one.

:2: Federal Case 6-1: Pletcher and some fast works. Step up in class is logical. Will not get the slow fractions this time, and needs dramatic improvement.

:7: Come On Gerry 20-1: Improved on the stretch out and gets a test today. Not on top, but could be in the super.

:6: Mihos 5-2: Got a real good trip in last and the other in the race did not. The tables are turned this time.

:8: Maximus Mischief 1-1: Three wire to wire wins. All were very soft for the first fraction. Plenty of other speed in here. Looks a little vulnerable or could very well be the best. Hopes he sends and gets ran down.

:1: Garter and Tie 12-1: Would love to see that ML, but will not. Has ran just as well as the favorite and ran a much better race in last than Mihos. Gets a nice set up and can win here.

For a race where I dislike the favorite :8:, and have been waiting to bet against the 2nd choice :6:, this is still a tough task.

You've got the :1::2::3: all potentially hoping to leverage a mediocre effort and an inside post into a contending role...

You've got the closers :5: and the :6:, where in spite of the :5:'s higher odds, the :6: has the edge in proven-recency, and in jockey. Their value is going to be equal at best, and the :5: is potentially a 'dud'.

The most interesting playable horse is the :7: Come on Gerry.
First question is the pace scenario, and whether he can survive the 1st turn...
3 outside speeds trying to cross over, and the :2: trying to break and dictate, and the :3: simply trying to dictate a pocket.
If :7: can break on top and get over next to the :2: (thus securing a decent path and forcing the :8::9::10: to work or be wide), or if the :7: has a yet unseen pressing/stalking dimension, he has a chance (and the talent) to contend at a big price. Neither of those two scenarios is high percentage.

I'm looking at a small multi-race to the singled :7:, and some light vertical exotics that use the :5: and/or :6: with friends, but not the :8:.

Prefer to either hit, or see the :8: win with fanfare.

police release sketch of pace suspect
 

https://i.imgur.com/XHs4QMZ.jpg

Castellano likely to 'play' the 1st-turn on the :2: Federal_Case...
:7: Come_on_Gerry has an opportunity to establish forward position.
Favored :8: Maximus_Mischeif will be sent hard to cross over on the lead.

The short run to the 1st-turn adds to the complexity of this pace scenario where the performance and tactics of more than half the field affects(red arrow emphasizing possible pressure) one another's pace projection.

:2::8::10: exacta box

Looking at the will pays, I don't think I can do a win on Maximus. I am now only considering the :1: or :6:

Exactas

:6::8: / :1::2:

:1::2: / :6::8: