Mudders
 

So I'm at Arlington for closing weekend on Sunday and the rain is coming down all day. The dirt is muddy or sloppy and 3 out of 4 turf races go on the dirt. I'm thinking "What a day to make some coin on the horses with great mud pedigree" and of course, I'm as cold as ice on the picks. I had Brisnet PPs which have mud starts and percentage winners, and those stats were meaningless. My buddy had other PPs which gave different figs and those too were worthless. I'm wondering if you all have methods which can prove of value you wouldn't mind sharing.

A simple explanation from a trainer in Vancouver B.C. (where rain is a big factor in sucess) told me: Mudders are those horses that dislike the mud LESS than their counterparts. For a long time I always thought it was the footing BUT........

ON THE WHOLE, very few horses will move up when they have a hard time seeing what is ahead of them and that's why the "clean silk syndrome," of those out of the gate quickly, is often enough to set up the entire day. If you look at most of the replays, even those that move up on really off going, do it from a part of the track where the spray from the pace setters does not overwhelm them.

There are a number of courses where first out of the gate wins when it is off......all day.. Speedy types improve a lot.

yesterday I was playing Arlington and it was soaked. speed was the key. I picked 3 or so in a row just based on e1 and e2 times. short prices........but one of the horses set a new track record. It was speed favoring as hell. reminded me turfway park back 4 or 5 years ago.

There were several that ran that had never performed in the mud before. Just defaulted back to early speed..........it worked pretty well.

Try Breeding
 

There are plenty of publications that deal with off track sires same as truf sires. Of course some horses show in the PP's how they fair on the off track. One of my all time favorites were Cure The Blues horses and his off spring seem to pass on the trait. Check out Http://Breedingwinners.com. Look under "list of top sires"

Of course like others say if you see is winning go with it. Even thou its raining the track is playing fast and is dominate over everthing including breeding. I would also suggest if you play breeding look for a price.

Track composition plays a big role in whether speed carries or not in slop. Belmont, a track with a lot of sand, tends to be very speed favoring in the slop. Hawthorne is another where off tracks help early speed. I consider Arlington to be more closer-friendly in slop/mud since the track has a lot of clay.

Here is what I could find of the winners sires off track ability that day:

1) French Deputy N/D
2) Lake Austin 20%(2-10)
3) Devils Bag 13%
4) More than ready 19%
5) Forest Wildcat 16%
6) Foresty N/D but out of Storm Cat who is 18%OT.
7) Bankers Gold 14%
8) Holy Bull 16%
9) Distorted Humor 23%
10) Joyeaux Dancer 11%

This is data for last 3 years. These look pretty formidable to me but since I did not handicap AP, I dont know how the other horses sires OT ability compared. I love playing Distorted Humor horses at a price on off tracks.No handicapping required.

being a mudder is an individual's trait

I tallied up the winning sire's percentage off track winners on Sunday's card, excluding those with very few starts, and averaged them. I came up with a 17% win rate on the off going.
I did the same with the last place finishers of all ten races Sunday at AP. Again I had to drop three figs due to either no starts, or too few (including a 50% hit rate) and came up with 15%. Now while this is a small sample, I submit that there is limited correlation between a sire's mud percentages and ability in racing on the off track of it's progeny.
However, I too like to bet Distorted Humor offspring in the off tracks.
I would like to see what the database guys could come up with over the long term.

Regardless of pedigree, you won't really know if a horse can handle the off track until they run over it. PP's of a horses ability on an off track usually are the best indicator of what a horse can do. Below is a list of pretty successful slop sires. Just the ones I like a lot, as many have solid off track peds.

Mr Prospecter
Carson City
Not For Love
Storm Cat
Gone West
Polish Numbers
Citi Dancer

Anything with these in there blood gets extra consideration on an off track from me. There are many, many more however. And often, like I said, until they run one on it, you don't really know what you will get.

in the simulcast era...i tend to avoid muddy and sloppy tracks. Particularly if there are other major tracks with a card where conditions are fast and firm. IF I play under these terrible conditions ....I spread more than usual in the exotics. Still key rather than box....but perhaps use additional entries that may have more chance on poor surfaces.

That is what the MAJORITY think so it behooves one to learn how to handle these tracks as there is LESS EDUCATED money in the pools. I do my best in the most terrible weather since I have made it a specaialt

P.S. you really think furosemide (Lasix) makes a difference? Wow

Breeding
 

Most people that play breeding have horses that they like and don't play based on stats alone everyone can see those stats now. A way to start if you are intersested, is by hand or data base keep track of the horses on your circuit ,brood mare sires,and sires of the winners at your track and if track is slow or fast ,truely muddy and slow. The reason I put brood mare sires first is its harder to see.

This is alot of work especially if you have weather. I'm in California so it wasn't as hard but still hard. I don't do that anymore but I did do it.

My goal now is to find (which I have yet to do) a few sires, brood mare sires or mares (back in generations) that or automatic plays (at a decent price).

I am very intersest in the works by Wm. Lathorp " Modern Conduit Mares" which I leaned about on this board and the works of Bruce Lowe as updated by Robert H. Murphy. Lowe's work has been maligned by many Breeding experts and I think wrongly so.

The reason I like other peoples works is I not trying to reinvent the wheel I just like breeding and want a way to use it in my everyday handicapping.

I can still use the old way and sometimes do.

Slop and multi-race exotics. Check out these payoffs on races 6-8 at Arlington.

Race 6, $12.80 winner in a 5 horse field
Race 7 $6.40 favorite in a 9 horse field
Race 8 $7.00 second choice in a 6 horse field (taken off grass)

The $2 P3 payoff?? $467.60. Keep in mind the track was sloppy all day, so it wasn't a matter of the rain hitting in the middle of a P3 sequence. The 8th was taken off the turf but the scratches were announced long before the race. The public did do a pretty good job, betting the winner down to the 2nd choice in that race. Small pool (under $6K) probably had a role. Slop + small pool = inefficient market

Track Conditions
 

You almost have to be there. I know we can't always so we must rely on the best information we have. I have been at the track ,it was raining track listed as "fast" on the board. Look slow and muddy to me. Big races I am sure they try to list as fast no matter what is really going on. But what can we do, the best we can and move on.

the pools were small because brisnet and its affiliates weren't able to bet arlington today