A Final Version
 

What can I offer as a final version for success at the racetrack. Perhaps nothing. Perhaps after 44 years and over 300,000 iterations of a proposed system some insights.......A set of 11 rules as: (1) Play up to 4 races a day taken from up to 3 racetracks.......(2) Eliminate races w scratches....(3) Eliminate Maiden races......(4) Eliminate races w less than 7 entries.....(5) Eliminate races w 7/8 entries if the lowest ML is less than 5:2.....(6) Gain expertise on the Win slot before venturing into exotics.....(7) Build a portfolio that breaks down into: 55%,9%,20%,9% and 7% for Win, Round Robin, Exacta, Trifecta and Supers respectively (a $3,240 portfolio for up to $129.60 daily wagering)........(8) Use 2 15:1-6:1 ML horses in a downward direction which provides for 50% plus premiums........(9) Give favor to potent overlays by wagering more on them......(10) Increase wagers after monthly success.... (11) Monitor progress w records as: Daily logs, Matching expected versus actual results, Ongoing hit ratio, Ongoing $2 Win mutual and Ongoing ROI.

good for you, keep on winning and keep up the good work

If these rules work for you keep on following them.

More than this I have to say that generic rules like play up to 4 races a day, eliminate races with scratches or maiden etc are completely artificial and unless you can come up with some data to support them they should be viewed more as a fallacy rather than anything else.

The complexity of the game requires an in depth understanding of it going far beyond what you are presenting here. What is the most important component for the creation of a successful horse gambler, is the development of a meta-handicapping process to allow for flexibility and adaptability to any possible racing event rather than the reliance to rigid rules that all of them are candidates for exceptional activity.

It is wonderful that race fans have different views on Thoroughbred Racing. I have read your response and differ on a few points. Let me explain: No matter how you do it the field has to be reduced to manageable levels, i.e. No scratches, no Maidens, 4 races/da, etc. And it is done quickly. The game is not that complex if you consider the formula: hit ratio x average ongoing $2 win mutual = FP. if FP=2.8 or better you are home free. No requirement for how you do it. No computer simulations or algorithms, Beyer Speed Figures, trip handicapping, etc. ...just old-fashioned selections (maybe 2 per race). The rules should be rigid so that the opportunity to be consistent is available and predictability is possible. Thus we approach investment and overcome gambling. Take the last 10 days at PA and Turf Paradise and apply my rules. Data: 25x2=50 tickets, 5 hits, average $2 mutual= $48.98and ROI > 100%.

I don't quite understand what you are saying in rule #8...nor am I clear on how you arrive at a final selection. I will say that you seem to have a lot more faith in the ML than I do...

Rule #8
 

I am a longshot player who believes that over a duration of 2 months I can average from $2 win wagers a mutual of $32. Rule # 8 helps me to do that. Only ML odds of 15:1, 12:1, 10:1, 8:1 and 6:1 are acceptable for play. I need them to go to post at a 50% premium or better. Starting at 15:1 and going downward I look for that to be the case and select the 2 most potent overlays. In races with 11-12 entries I will accept 3 selections. I am OK with someone's line since the goal I seek is achieved.

Any scratch or just late scratches..?

Rule (2)
 

The scratches I speak of are those after the program is set.

Don't bet Maidens
 

:confused:

they are my favourite

fffastt

I am not 100 % against betting on Maiden races. However, to reduce race population I would rather a claimer with win experience.

Curious what the reason is for this rule?

The Rule. Simple. After program scratches....do the remaining odds possess the original ML odds?

I always appreciate when people share their methods, especially when they go against the norm. A couple of questions.

1. Is it 4 races from all three tracks, or a max of 4 races per track?

2. Why the limit on races? I know that you had indicated to make things manageable, but what if I would manage more tracks?

3. You are living in the deep end of the pool. High mutuels, but low hits rates. How is this working for you?

4. Have you experimented with some other separation/handicapping factor to distinguish the better of the high ML horses?

Again, thank you for sharing!

Let me see if I understand... if you were able to calculate your own odds line the scratch rule wouldn't be necessary, is that right?

I consider it a win when I share my ideas on Thoroughbred Racing, especially when they are appreciated. Thank you for accepting them. The answer to 1........4 total races from 2-3 racetracks. The answer to 2.......If more than 3 racetracks are considered then more than 4 acceptable races are produced and a 1 win day becomes unprofitable. The answer to 3........ Great! As long as the operator is in focus and adheres to the rules of play, use money management strategies and is the keeper of records. The answer to 4...... Handicapping from past performances as in Dan Geer's book, "Pro-rated Longshots" we are alerted that his yearly workout produced a ROI of 15% on an average $2 mutual of $26. His methods require more labor, purchase of the Racing Form and create numerous selections. I seek and return a 30-40% on a $2 average mutual of $32.