The FAVORITE for the Derby should always be bet against.

Way to much stupid money goes in on the top choice or second choice creating value, in a race where there as sooo many reasons why the best horse does not win.

Pick against the favorite in the Derby and you will almost always come out looking like you know what your doing!

Since the current point system was implemented 5 years ago the favorites have won all 5 Kentucky Derbys. IMO it eliminated the "sprinter only" types that would always enter and cause chaos type scenarios.

dont forget the drug testing

To small of a sample, and I would argue the best horse didnt win a couple of those despite not being the favorite but I do agree the points system has made it a "truer" race.

I watched the race again and the stretch run twice . I take back my previous post. Smith was sitting on the turn while Castellano was whipping Bolt so Bolt was gaining . Once Smith went to whip Justify took off I think it was 3 times and he just pulled away.
I didn't see his weight . Curious if it was the same as his prior race.

That fade at the top of the stretch, and the fact, that even though hard pressed from the 5/16ths onward, Bolt D'oro was able to threaten all the way to the 1/16th pole, tells me that if Justify runs into a horse that can finish the move that Bolt D'oro made comes along, Justify will get outrun to the wire. Justify should have put 3 on Bolt D'oro at the 3/16th. MSmith scrubbed him pretty diligently as they straightened and he couldn't put a used Bolt D'oro away for another 250 yards. BDo is a nice horse, but he's 12/1 first Saturday in May.

Justify is a beautiful horse, but either a fuller pre-derby campaign would have made him a monster, or would have exposed him completely. 3 races and off to the KDerby for a horse that faded 4 paths at the top of the stretch in a 7 horse SA Derby after an uncontested :24, :24, :24.3 . NO THANKS.

An aside. Anybody notice the odds change entering the CH turn? 3/5 and 6/5 went to 4/5 and even. Late money flowed to BDo. It may have been big rebate players dutching and making their nickels, or it could have been an educated opinion. It wasn't an out of the question odds move though considering how the race went.

I dont think you can use late money at GP and SA to mean anything, its all the CRW coming in equalizing the board.

Definitely some of that going on.

I'm one of those. You gotta take it as it comes.

I think I like him stalking better than setting. KD should give him that opportunity also.

Plenty of time to think this through. Hate to see him at too short a price though as there are questions, as there always are with top-end, lightly raced 3 yos. He's gone 7, 8, and 9. Straight to the premier 10 furlong race in the land.

Thank heavens we still have a month to go. He came back to the morning works quickly after the allowance, just as he did after the maiden. The work regimen from here out will be interesting. Couldn't be in better hands. Let's see what the white haired wizard does from here.

That was why I said I think you have to be a number maker to TRULY appreciate the effort.

Here is my work chart for that race:
Keep in mind I use pace, trip and weight and these are all horses I am very familiar with:

2nd placer@21
3rd@Between21to22
4th@Between21to22
5th@21
6th & 7th were beaten 28 and 30 lengths

The 21 variant gives Justify the highest number I have EVER given a 3yo in a race before the KD. This has me quite impressed and zero doubt about the number. My concerns are that will he be ok after an effort like this? And he has never raced on any other track than SA so has never shipped either.

If the SA Derby Justify shows up at Churchill a big good luck to the rest. If anybody can get him there at his best it's definitely Baffert. Of course there is always the post position draw and trip with 20 horses to overcome as well.

21 was the variant for SA that day??
Seems high to me

It does. I believe there was only one other route on the card that day and it was restricted to fillies. Even the Oaks fillies hit the 3/4 pole a half second faster. I'm skeptical of some of the very high speed figures created for the Santa Anita Derby. Brisnet gave it the highest in points series history in spite of the race being the 19th slowest in race history. It was 12 points higher than American Pharoah's Ark which was the 11th fastest in race history. Equibase rated the race a 108 which is very par for that prep over the last decade. Par for the Santa Anita is still plenty good enough to contend for roses.

The 21 variant is only relative to my numbers. My 21 wont match Timeform's or Beyer's 21. I don't use anybody elses par charts or times. My only reason for showing the variant was because the race lined up as perfectly at it gets including pace, trip and weight which some others leave out and require additional adjustment.

The problem is people are not looking at the big picture.

Lets say you believe the varient should have not been close to what the chief figure makers made, lets just say it was 20, and you believe it was much closer to say 10. That gives Justify a figure more in line with a good race but close to par for the race, nothing special.

When you do that you have EVERY other winner that day going backwards off their better figures.

You would have midnight bisou with an 80ish figure. Folks, been watching the Oaks for a long long time, thats a good filly right there, she is not a 80 figure horse.

So every dirt winner more or less would go backwards with winning efforts (at leas the ones with established form).

Not how it works. Justify ran really well, the numbers support it. He may flop in the Derby for a variety of reason, but he is a fast horse.

If I'm not mistaken, there was only one other dirt route that day and it was the Oaks. Have fun putting together figures using comps from a stakes restricted to fillies and a couple sprints. Getting a really big picture, Unique Bella ran a 6F fraction in 1:10.4 at the track this year and won the race. That was two seconds faster than Justify's plodding to the pole. Maybe he's just playing like American Pharoah did in the rebel but I doubt it against a horse like Bolt.

There was two others, and both races featured horses (non maidens) who had established form.

One was Midnight Bisou and other young fillies (they usually go forwards, not backwards) and one start alw race.

How good do you think McKinzie is at 8.5F? Bolt ran him dead even, earned a solid figure, then in a race with a distance that Bolt should have moved forward with figure wise second off a layoff he got drubbed 3 lengths and more or less paired figures up.

There are solid arguments why Justify may not win the Derby (pedigree, experience, large field with random trouble, foundation) but the idea he just is not that fast is no one of them.

I would argue if anything Beyer has the race too SLOW, I dont think Midnight Bisou went backwards, along with all the other fillies in the race. I think Timeform is spot on with the figures they gave. I have no idea about Bris.

The derby is not going to verify the figure, it will take more races from the entire field to know how good or bad the figure was.

*Bump* Some hilarious posts in this thread!!!!

Glad I was an early Fanboy.


https://emojipedia-us.s3.amazonaws.c...mugs_1f37b.png

:ThmbUp: LOL Nice early call here

I went to the Belmont this year along with 90-100,000 other people. There were people who took a spot along the paddock fence when the arrived so they wouldn't miss Justify. I have a few complaints about the day and I think I'll probably blog about them.

The biggest stat:

- 7 favorites won, none over 8/5

- 3 longshots over 10-1

- 2 between 5/2 and 9/2

- 1 straggler between 5-1 and 9-1

Over 50% of the winners were low price favorites. You had to work hard to make money.

The track is starting to have that run down Pimlico field. On the third floor grandstand pigeons had obviously taken over some of the rafters, given some areas totally covered in pigeon crap.

The lines for food and drink were long, as were the lines at the betting machines. If there is one thing I'll never get past, it's some idiot with a $10 voucher finally deciding to handicap a race at the window. Or five young guys standing around the machine arguing what to bet.

They had a loud music show inside the facility. It may have attracted more college kids than the races.

One other thing I'd say. You can't see shit without binoculars down the backstretch so you're reduced to watching the chicklets.

I got my glimpse of Justify passing the eighth pole and walked out with a $2 win ticket on him as a souvenir. A long, long day.

Thank you very much MadV.... When I saw him on Feb. 18 his performance gave me goosebumps (chills), however, you know in Horse Racing as brilliant as they can be they are at the same time such fragile animals that you just don't want to be associated with jinxing one of them..... :headbanger:

Horse of the Year
 

Alright!!!!!!