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- General Handicapping Discussion (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=2)

- - 2017-2018 HONG KONG (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=140560)

AltonKelsey

06-03-2018 02:17 AM

Big steam on the 12. race 4...

Turns out it was all steam, no substance

Nitro

06-03-2018 02:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey (Post 2324660)

Big steam on the 12. race 4...

Turns out it was all steam, no substance

Not my kind of steam. Plus a bad post. ;)

Nitro

06-03-2018 02:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2324659)

R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T…..3-8-14 W/ 2-10-11 …....2:15 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #4 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 8-14-5-10
Dutch Win, Passed only 11% margin
Quin - $14.50 –
Solid action on the Top 2 finishers

Nitro

06-03-2018 02:56 AM

R#5 - 1600M C3 (8F)T.……3-5-9 W/ 6-8-14 …....3:05 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #1 – Watch Live tote activity)

Nitro

06-03-2018 03:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2324665)

R#5 - 1600M C3 (8F)T.……3-5-9 W/ 6-8-14 …....3:05 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #1 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 3-6-5-7
Dutch Win, Passed only 24% margin
Quin - $23.60 –
Solid action on the Favorite

Nitro

06-03-2018 03:31 AM

R#6 - 1600M C3 (8F)T……....1-5-10 W/ 3-9-4 ……3:40 AM EST –

(Also of interest are: #8 – Watch Live tote activity)

Nitro

06-03-2018 03:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2324671)

R#6 - 1600M C3 (8F)T……....1-5-10 W/ 3-9-4 ……3:40 AM EST –

(Also of interest are: #8 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 5-3-4-13
Dutch Win, Passed only 41% margin
Quin - $30.00 – Tri Bx- $525.60
Solid action on the Winner

Nitro

06-03-2018 03:58 AM

R#7 – 1600M G3 (8F)T……....2-1-8 W/ 3-4 ......4:10 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #5 – Watch Live tote activity)

Nitro

06-03-2018 04:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2324675)

R#7 – 1600M G3 (8F)T……....2-1-8 W/ 3-4 ......4:10 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #5 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 8-2-4-3
ALL of that one!
Dutch Win, Passed only 26% margin
Quin - $11.20 – Tri - $139.40
Solid action on the Winning Favorite

Nitro

06-03-2018 04:27 AM

R#8 - 1000M C3 (5F)T…..…6-3-1 W/ 12-5-13 ………4:40 AM EST

Nitro

06-03-2018 04:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2324678)

R#8 - 1000M C3 (5F)T…..…6-3-1 W/ 12-5-13 ………4:40 AM EST

Results - 6-12-13-9
BIG Dutch Win, with 169% margin
Quin - $11.80 – Tri - $111.00
Solid action on the Winner (Early & Late)

Code:

 

LOW        MID        HI        TOT        TOT        PRF %

5.2        8.0        9.0        BET        PRF         

$12        $18        $20                           

$260        $180        $160        $600        $1010        169%

$1610        $1620        $1600

Lemon Drop Husker

06-03-2018 05:04 AM

R9

:6: looks good Nitro. :ThmbUp::)

Nitro

06-03-2018 05:05 AM

R#9 - 1400M C3 (7F)T.….….2-5-7 W/ 9-1-3 ….….5:15 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

Lemon Drop Husker

06-03-2018 05:11 AM

Not gonna lie. That :2: looked amazing and ready.

Nitro

06-03-2018 05:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2324684)

R#9 - 1400M C3 (7F)T.….….2-5-7 W/ 9-1-3 ….….5:15 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 7-8-3-6
Nice Dutch Win, with 87% margin

Solid action on the Winner

Code:

 

LOW        MID        HI        TOT        TOT        PRF %

2.2        5.2        15.0        BET        PRF         

$6        $12        $32                           

$350        $180        $70        $600        $520        87%

$1120        $1120        $1120

Nitro

06-03-2018 05:39 AM

R#10 - 1200M C2 (6F)T.......12-5-14 W/ 3-6-8 …….5:50 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #1 – Watch Live tote activity)

Lemon Drop Husker

06-03-2018 05:44 AM

You 3 horse 'Dutched' and didn't play any exotics losers and thus somehow won?

Come on man.

Lemon Drop Husker

06-03-2018 05:47 AM

R10 Sha Tin

:8: Lockheed

Nitro

06-03-2018 05:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker (Post 2324688)

You 3 horse 'Dutched' and didn't play any exotics losers and thus somehow won?

Come on man.

I only make 3-entry Dutch Win bets when the profit margin is higher than 50%. I will occasionally play some Quinellas if there's anticipated value.
Try reading my opening post

Nitro

06-03-2018 06:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2324687)

R#10 - 1200M C2 (6F)T.......12-5-14 W/ 3-6-8 …….5:50 AM EST

(Also of interest are: #1 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 4-14-5-6
Dutch Loss, but Passed with only 10% margin

Late Heavy action on the LS Winner !!

Dutching Results: 3 for 3 with 50% or better profit margins and a 112% O.A. Profit

A Good night (morning)

Nitro

06-23-2018 10:56 PM

HONG KONG - SHA TIN SUN 6/24/18

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I thought I would stop by and post a few live selections from another competitive card.
It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with 8 races on Turf & 2 on Dirt:
(from top to bottom) -
(2)-Class2, (4)-Class3, (3)-Class4 & (1)-Class5

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM SUN EST

Current Hong Kong Weather: https://www.google.com/search?q=Hong...hrome&ie=UTF-8

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who might appreciate the value of the LIVE tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url...gRedirect=true

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause substitutions among the Top 3 pick, but currently they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

Nitro

06-23-2018 11:29 PM

Quote:

It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with 8 races on Turf & 2 on Dirt:
(from top to bottom) - (2)-Class2, (4)-Class3, (3)-Class4 & (1)-Class5

Correction:
(1) G3 Stakes - (2)-Class2, (3)-Class3, (3)-Class4 & (1)-Class5

Nitro

06-24-2018 12:46 AM

R#1 - 2000M C4 (10F)T…..1-2-7 W/ 5-8 ….….1:00 AM EST -
(Also of interest are: #10 – Watch Live tote activity)

Nitro

06-24-2018 01:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2333074)

R#1 - 2000M C4 (10F)T…..1-2-7 W/ 5-8 ….….1:00 AM EST -
(Also of interest are: #10 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 7-2-9-1
Dutch Win, but Passed with only 26% margin
Quinella - $12.10
Solid action on the Top 3 choices

Nitro

06-24-2018 01:22 AM

R#2 - 1400M C5 (7F)T….. 3-8-2 W/ 5-6-7 …..…1:30 AM EST –
(Also of interest are: #4 – Watch Live tote activity)

Nitro

06-24-2018 01:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2333079)

R#2 - 1400M C5 (7F)T….. 3-8-2 W/ 5-6-7 …..…1:30 AM EST –
(Also of interest are: #4 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 10-5-8-4
Dutch Loss, but with 59% margin
Quinella - Out
No action on the Big LS Winner @ 88/1

Nitro

06-24-2018 01:52 AM

R#3 - 1800M C3 (9F)T…..2-1-5 W/ 3-4 .......2:00 AM EST -

Nitro

06-24-2018 02:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2333084)

R#3 - 1800M G3 (9F)T…..2-1-5 W/ 3-4 .......2:00 AM EST -

Results - 1-2-3-5
Dutch Win, but Passed with only 12% margin
All of that one - Quinella - $10.60
Late action on the heavily Favored Winner

Nitro

06-24-2018 02:22 AM

R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)D…..1-2-3 W/ 4-9 …....2:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #10 – Watch Live tote activity)

Nitro

06-24-2018 02:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2333091)

R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)D…..1-2-3 W/ 4-9 …....2:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #10 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 3-12-2-1
Dutch Win, but with 57% margin
Quinella - Out
Solid early action on Winner

Code:

 



LOW        MID        HI        TOT        TOT        PRF %

1.9        3.7        11.0        BET        PRF         

$6        $9        $24                           

$330        $200        $88        $610        $350        57%

$960        $940        $960

Nitro

06-24-2018 02:52 AM

R#5 - 1400M C4 (7F)T.……3-7-1 W/ 8-12-2 …....3:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 – Watch Live tote activity)

Nitro

06-24-2018 03:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2333095)

R#5 - 1400M C4 (7F)T.……3-7-1 W/ 8-12-2 …....3:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 – Watch Live tote activity)

Results - 8-12-5-1
Dutch Win, but Passed with only 30% margin
Quinella - $24.70
Winning Favorite took all the late action – Moved into my top 3

Nitro

06-24-2018 03:27 AM

R#6 - 1600M C3 (8F)T……....5-1-11 W/ 10-6-7 ……3:35 AM EST –

fellowmen

06-24-2018 03:31 AM

Hi Nitro would you be so kind to jump ahead and post your winners in the pic 3? Don't think i can stay awake for the whole card. And thank you for the 3rd race i played the 1-2 over 1-2 over 3-4 ten times so i have $260 left of their money to play with

Nitro

06-24-2018 03:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fellowmen (Post 2333098)

I would like to help you out, but because I only use the tote action to make my picks I only play on a race by race basis.

Nitro

06-24-2018 03:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2333097)

R#6 - 1600M C3 (8F)T……....5-1-11 W/ 10-6-7 ……3:35 AM EST –

Results - 6-10-11-2
Dutch Loss, but Passed with only 20% margin
Quinella box - $148.30 – big Triple box there too
Placer: #10 took a lot of early action

Nitro

06-24-2018 03:54 AM

R#7 – 1400M G3 (7F)T……....1-3-7 W/ 4-2 ......4:05 AM EST

fellowmen

06-24-2018 04:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2333102)

R#7 – 1400M G3 (7F)T……....1-3-7 W/ 4-2 ......4:05 AM EST

Nice work huge score

fellowmen

06-24-2018 04:13 AM

I don't think im tierd any longer

Nitro

06-24-2018 04:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nitro (Post 2333102)

R#7 – 1400M G3 (7F)T……....1-3-7 W/ 4-2 ......4:05 AM EST

Results - 7-4-2-1
Dutch Win, but Passed with only 7% margin
All of that one - Quinella - $20.80 – Triple box - $535.80
Winner took solid late action

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