Sam F. Davis Stakes PPs
 

Who has enough speed to challenge Knicks Go? Those works at Tampa are blistering. Should he fall apart which I don't see being likely I like the :8: who has a win over the track and gets Castellano back. I also will take a long look at the :6:. Just broke his maiden but breeding says distance should be a non-issue and who knows, he may love a two turn route and show marked improvement in his first race as a 3 yo.

Will take another look at the :7: if it looks like it's going to be an off track at all.

As of now box the :3::6::8:

Well Defined out-footed Knicks Go (who hopped at the start) to the first turn in the BC Juvenile, then had to check when in tight behind pacesetter Complexity. Appears one-dimensional and while hardly a win prospect, certainly appears to be a pace factor.

The maiden Going for Gold stretches out after setting sharp paces in a pair of sprints. He's drawn directly inside Knicks Go and will almost certainly assume the rail with the speed-deficient Counter Offer breaking from the one-hole. Going for Gold has also been working sharply for this race.

On the win end, Still Dreaming--a half brother to Derby hero Nyquist--progressed nicely from his maiden debut to take a one-turn mile maiden at Laurel. He broke sharply and settled well under a hold just off the pacesetter before assuming command and driving clear without use of the whip. He got caught in a 3-horse duel in his debut and tired late while racing a bit greenly, but he should have enough gas to keep in range of Knicks Go early. Fellow Laurel invader Win Win Win came here and blitzed the first 3yo stakes, setting a new track record in the 7f Pasco 3 weeks ago.

For a longshot, Cave Run continues on at Tampa Bay after getting run off his feet as the favorite in the Pasco. Bred to stretch out a bit, the pace here should be a lot less intense, so perhaps he can get involved on the far turn rather than spinning his wheels with too much left to do.

i thought Win Win Win was going to be in this race. Are they waiting for the Tampa Bay Derby?

Knicks go. Training lights out.

:1: Counter Offer - Beat by the Pletcher entry last out making a 3-wide move. Would need solid improvement against this crew. Has the Buckpasser-x.
:2: Going for Gold - Gave up three lengths in previous two starts that were sprints doesn't lend much confidence here. I see grass in the future for this one.
:3: Knicks Go - Certainly has the class edge. Training well after terrible KY Jockey Club. I'm willing to draw a line through that one for now. Should be a factor in the pace but may not be alone at or near the lead. There is risk of a collapse. A Buckpasser-x horse. I will use but not exclusively.
:4: Cave Run - Couldn't keep up with fairly hot pace last out and he faces the same scenario here. Nothing wrong getting beat by Win Win Win but it was a 10 length crush.
:5: Moonster - The horse is 30-1 ML for a reason but I can respect Dale Romans off a layoff with young colt. Tall task for the win but wouldn't be surprised if he blows up the bottom of a dime super. See Holy Bull.
:6: Kentucky Wildcat - This Tapit colt has 30 dosage points and is another Buckpasser-x. Extremely competent pilot in Bravo. This one could be primed to fire a big one.
:7: Five Star General - He has the breeding I look for in a Derby prospect; Raise A Native on top, female family 1-x, and Buckpasser-x for added spunk. He has professional dosage point further suggesting the added half panel shouldn't be too daunting. Excellent pilot in Jose Ortiz. Another colt that could pop a big one after a layoff.
:8: So Alive - Pletcher has won six of these contests since 2006 and that stat alone makes him worthy of top consideration. Add ascending speed figures and usually sharp Javier Castellano. This is another Raise A Native but not through Mr. P. He's also got the Buckpasser-x.
:9: Well Defined - Reeled off two big speed figures in a row late last summer and hasn't come near since. If he gets back to those figures then he's a strong contender but it's also possible those figures were inflated. He's yet another Buckpasser-x and adding shades.
:10: Still Dreaming - Lets throw another Buckpasser-x in the mix effectively making that angle utterly useless for this race. H. Motion has been hot but the early running colt has a tough task from the 10 hole while making large class leap. He did run a final quarter in about 23.6 last out, albeit after a slow first 3/4. I'm skeptical but this one has some chance to screw up a dime super play.

Tough race to play as I have a tough time tossing any of the :3::6::7::8: from the top of a ticket. Maybe I'll just box them in the exacta and wheel them in the first three tiers of the super with all on the bottom but thats 168 dimes per play.

Primarily cheering for a big figure or a sense of legitimacy to win here to set up a bet-against at a later date.

:3: Knicks Go seems to be the most likely horse to give me that scenario.

An impressive looking win from Pletcher's :8: could as well.


May make a small gimmick bet on this race.

We seem to think alike on this wagering strategy however if the Holy Bull was any guide then perhaps it's wise to at least take a minor shot now versus waiting for later. On the flip side, if a well bred horse like the :7: looks good getting a minor share then a back back option exists at a later date as well.

:1: Counter Offer 12/1: Finished well in last and is stepping up the ladder class wise. Nothing really impressive to me here, could see in the super.

:2: Going for Gold 20/1: Inside speed and has tried and failed to wire MSW company in only 2 races. Trainer change is something to consider, but not for long. Flash and crash?

:3: Knicks Go 5/2: Mr. obvious here. Will not see 5/2 but it is a fair price. Wanted no part of his last race and that is the second time that happened. Got to think that he has the talent to win, but is not a horse to bet heavily.

:4: Cave Run 6/1: Is the high figure in the slop a indication of talent or just a inflated one? First time against winners was the favorite and had no chance in that one because of the race shape. Two turns might be to his liking and is worth a look at the price and because this race favors his running style.

:5: Moonster 30/1: Not today, would play in the super though.

:6: Kentucky Wildcat 9/2: His two route races tell a lot about him. Saw fast opening fractions and finished evenly, saw slow fractions and finished well. does not get the soft fractions this time and is up against it for the win.

:7: Five Star General 4/1: Surprised to see 4/1 here and is way to low. Two wire jobs against nothing is not what I want here. Will have to step it up and surprise me.

:8: So Alive 5/1: Bad race came on a track that did not like his late running stlye. Pletcher 'and JC add to the appeal. Might not get 5/1 but is capable of winning.

:9: Well Defined 8/1: Nothing is well defined here accept maybe he needs the lead or does not run. Adds to the pace and if he gets the lead will be tough. If you think he gets the lead he is a play, but I do not think that, Pass.

:10: Still Dreaming 15/1: Will not see soft fractions and will not finish like in the last. Not here.

Narrowed down to the :3:, :4:, and :8: and will look at those prices in the exacta.

there's potentially a lot of speed in this race if a couple of the lightly raced pieces translate well vs these better horses.

knicks go is going to try and bottom the field, and i have to admit those 2 big races look scary good.

I'll key :10: Still Dreaming up and down.

GL

I'll go with :6: Kentucky Wildcat. His early position will be somewhere in the middle early, which is ideal because the pace should be blistering fast.

He's capable of something in the 105-115 range on TimeformUS. If he posts a 110, that is probably enough to win this race.

This race is over if he runs back close to either of those races. He crushed that field at Keeneland.

no great prediction if he does.

thing is. after knicks go its a crap shoot. sure pletcher can improve but is the horse really a lock to finish itm?..my guess it that he finishes 3rd

but if knicks go wins by 5-10L you might get a couple long shots underneath

I wanted to get away from the patterns, but after further review they’re persuasive - except for the CD, they continue to hold. The winners of the Jerome, Sham, LeComte, Smarty Jones, Withers, Robert B Lewis and the Holy Bull (7 races):

1) Class of the field (x/Gray Attempt 1st x/neck; Harvey Wallbanger 1st x/1)
2) Hadn’t raced in 56+ sixty days
3) Showed 5+ works (x/Tax, 4 works)
4) Among first two betting choices (x/Harvey Wallbanger, 6th)
5) Ranked 1st or 2nd in BRIS Prime Power (x/Harvey Wallbanger, 5th)
6) CD fit (2/7);

The pattern points to a layoff horse with class and speed that is the betting and BRIS Prime Power favorite. Average DI and CD for 8.5f: 3.01 - 0.69. For the Sam F. Davis, I get (5) qualifiers:

KNICKS GO, DP = 3-6-11-0-0 (20) DI = 2.64 CD = 0.60
87k - Broke his Mdn @ 42k, Elp; appears to be the class of the field w/early speed; confounding speed figures; good RR/CR; inconsistent turn time; low LP; problematic comments; low trainer stakes %; three works, w/2 sharp bullets @ Tam; CD fits.

KENTUCKY WILDCAT, DP = 5-11-13-1-0 (30) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67
225k - broke his Mdn last out @ Aqu @ 70k; good speed; good paired speed figure pattern, expect improvement; low RR, good CR; ascending turn time; ascending LP; dug in and fought on; low trainer stakes %; five works, 1 bullet @ Palm Meadows; CD fits.

FIVE STAR GENERAL, DP = 7-4-10-0-1 (22) DI = 2.67 CD = 0.73
50k - broke his Mdn @ 40k @ Lrl; low paired speed figure pattern; low RR, good CR; low turn time; low LP; seven works w/3 straight bullets @ Tam, works signal improvement; CD fits.

SO ALIVE, DP = 3-3-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75
130k -broke his Mdn last out @ Tam @ OC75k; mid paired speed figure pattern; low RR/CR; even turn time; good LP; three works @ Palm Beach; CD fits.

WELL DEFINED, DP = 5-3-9-1-0 (18) DI = 2.27 CD = 0.67
7.5k - broke his Mdn first out @ GP @ 50kR; confounding speed figures; good RR/CR; good turn time; confounding LP; two gate works at Gpw one at distance; CD fits.

~

:6:

:8:

:7: