1 1/8 Prep Final Fraction Thread
 

thanks and keep them coming

1 1/8 Prep Final Fraction Thread
 

Love this thread every year. Thanks!

do you know about Ran and buckpasser, for some reason, I can never figure that out. confuses the hell out of me

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=2083757501


have it noted on that spreadsheet

RAN is easier to explain. Simply follow the top sire line. Here is Maximum Security. He's got RAN five generations back via Mr. P. Fast closing RAN horses have been winning the Derby about 4x more than simple chance. I'll also note he's a female family 1 which has been the strongest in the Derby.

Buckpasser-x is a bit more complicated to explain. The theory is Buckpasser may have a strong tendency to pass along a large or stronger heart gene through daughters but not son to son. In the case of Game Winner, he has the Buckpasser-x by way of Lassie Dear. He's also RAN six generations back via Mr. P and is also female family 1 (and the strongest subfamily x). Should he run strong this weekend he would probably easily top the old Stanley Caris checklist.

Top 4 in the Derby, and top 2 in the World Cup, for comparison......

1 PLUS QUE PARFAIT (USA)
25.85 [10] 50.26 [09] 1:15.63 [08] 1:41.37 [05] 1:54.15 [01] 1:58.41 [01]

2 GRAY MAGICIAN (USA)
25.85 [12] 50.41 [12] 1:15.23 [04] 1:41.23 [02] 1:54.30 [03] 1:58.52 [02]

3 MANGUZI (FR)
25.70 [06] 49.74 [03] 1:15.10 [03] 1:41.19 [01] 1:54.21 [02] 1:58.57 [03]

4 DERMA LOUVRE (JPN)
25.85 [11] 50.41 [11] 1:15.48 [06] 1:41.49 [07] 1:54.53 [07] 1:59.44 [04]


1 THUNDER SNOW (IRE)
26.31 [02] 50.75 [02] 1:14.38 [03] 1:39.46 [02] 1:52.13 [02] 2:03.87 [01]

2 GRONKOWSKI (USA)
26.38 [03] 50.82 [03] 1:14.26 [02] 1:39.33 [01] 1:52.03 [01] 2:03.87 [02]

Keeping in mind the World Cup is 100 meters (~110 yards or a half panel) longer. All else equal, one might expect those World Cup finals to be perhaps 6.5 seconds slower, however, they were only about 4.5 seconds slower. Plus Que would have been 10 lengths at a minimum behind Thunder Snow.

Always enjoy reading these, thanks!

Thanks, for your work on the spreadsheets. Very grateful.

Stan disappeared after ATM stopped posting his list for the Derby and Breeders’ Cup. I bought his books, but I still make mistakes wasn’t I do the figures by hand. I usually buy hismlist and compare it to mine,check for errors. I em won nice money thanks to him. It wasn’t for air what ATM did. They ruined a good thing when they canceled their magazine. I had mostly all of their publications.

I'll do this again for this year's races:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...7&postcount=16

I'll post after this week's preps, then again after the Arkansas Derby.