TimeformUS Early/ Late Pace Ratings
 

Longshot Always Thinking #14 in Laurels 7th 16Sep2017, showed a TimeformUS Late rating of 121....How high do these ratings go up...? Starting to really focus on the high Early or high Late ratings...What about these HIGH ratings...?

Watching the fight tonight and just got back from the OU game. I'll give a very detailed answer to this tomorrow at some point.

PS...You could have mentioned he won and paid $52 :)

I'll give this a shot...

The early and late ratings are not meant to be compared to each other. Early ratings should be compared to early ratings and late ratings to late ratings. The ratings are designed so that any horse can be compared to any other horse. Horses that have been racing on different surfaces and at very different distances can and often do meet up in the same race. Because of this, the ratings need to be able to differentiate between a horse that runs fast early at 5f on dirt and one that shows speed at 12f on turf. The same goes for late ratings. Finishing fast in a 6f dirt race isn't the same as doing so in a 9f turf race.

I don't keep pars or averages on these ratings...maybe I should. But theoretically, it should work like this. The example below is for older stakes horses. This is about what the average winner would run early and late.

So, in the example Vigors cited, the 14 horse had a much higher late rating than the others because he had been closing well in turf routes and was cutting back to 6f. Obviously this doesn't always result in the horse being competitive. In this case, the pace was really fast and set up nicely for the closer. That isn't rare when the pace gets extreme, slow or fast. The winner often looks good on the early/late ratings.

Another horse in the same race, the 3, was a good example in the other direction. She had her most success running long on the lead in turf races. But cutting back to a sprint, her early speed rating was pretty low and placed her midpack. She couldn't keep up with the sprinters early, raced in midpack and pretty much stayed there all the way around.

It isn't easy to predict the extreme pace scenarios though. TimeformUS didn't indicate the pace was likely to be fast for the Laurel race yesterday. Sometimes we nail it, but of course not always.

CJ,

"The ratings are designed so that any horse can be compared to any other horse. Horses that have been racing on different surfaces and at very different distances can and often do meet up in the same race."

Do the ratings travel to other tracks well...? Meaning, are they interchangeable between tracks....? I recently learned that DRF speed rating/ variant are track specific, that a 100-10 at one track is not equal to a 100-10 at another track...I sure this it what Beyer, in part, was addressing in creating the Beyer number...

It seems like each track should have a baseline surface coefficient established vis-a-vis other tracks...

So, for exampe, are the TimeformUS pace ratings of 75 early, 100 late at Del Mar equal to same figures at Belmont Park...?

Yes, no different than the speed figures. They travel. That is the toughest part and I work to keep that up to date. It isn't always perfect.

One of the things I have been meaning to study, and if I actually knew anything about databasing this would be much easier but I wonder how many times say a horse who is a mid pack runner in the pace project who finds himself near the early lead ends up winning...then say a late closer who in the pace projector finds themselves in mid pack. I use these two as its a bit hidden to the public without pace figures. If a horse who can close doenst have to exert much energy to keep up it seems to me they have a much better chances of winning.

Now this can go the opposite, a closer who has been doing well as of late suddenly finds h imself with better horses, now his 80 early pace figure places him 15 lengths back rather than the 7 or 8 lengths he has had in his last few setups.

Identifying this is really hard but again I alway look for hidden things and this angle is a bit hidden from the normal player.

Couldn't find the thread I really wanted to post this in, but this one works...

In the 6th at Del Mar today, the much the best Late Pace figure won in a race predicted to have a fast pace. He paid $150.

https://i.ibb.co/D40d8v3/Dmr1124-R6.png

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart...112419USA6.pdf

Only? $150

Horse probably paid way too much, but focusing on a single data point like this will always produce huge prices, sometime, randomly .



It's a form of numerology. :p





Now, if you can show a decent sample, where this angle is profitable or at least better than a random takeout loser, we can talk about it.

That decent sample is out there.
I have posted many times the exact same thing, but just not for that much!

Probably one of the best all time spot plays I have ever seen.:ThmbUp:

I agree with your general point and can't vouch for the flat bet profitability of a large sample of races using any specific numbers, but I can tell you that if a race melts down, some really big longshot closers will often hit the board or light it up to win, especially if they also happened to get a perfect ground saving trip or it was a track that was favoring closers.

The real problem is that first you have to be right about the pace, then the pace has to actually cause a meltdown (sometimes it's fast but does not melt down), and then you have to have the best closer or the closer that got the best trip. That's a lot of "ifs" when you know you are betting an inferior horse that needs everything to go right. That said, it's a good angle when the conditions are just right for a meltdown.

You mentioned it, and apparently it wasn't a problem. :)

ZIA PArk Free race today - coming up in 13 minutes - PP says Fast Pace.

Top two LP horses by a good margin are:

:8: (98)
:3: (83)

:1: (70)

Let's see what happens.

CJ - question on this race - #1 EP has a 9 point advantage - is that roughly 2 lengths? ( 1 length = 10 pts?)

It is profitable, I've posted about it before. I couldn't find the thread though. It's far from numerology.