Bob Baffert
 

How good is this Bob Baffert???

Wow. Can't wait for opinions.

He's obviously good. He also gets all the best horses at a time where nobody else out west is getting any good horses. Pretty much a yawner for me.

Bob Baffert = Lance Armstrong IMO

The Owners of Derby Contenders knew if they were away from his barn early (think it was 30 days earlier this year) they wouldn't perform nearly as well. We have two prior years as evidence.

IMO, he is an excellent horseman that has been in the game close to 50 years.
It seems however that he either doubted his own abilities or wanted to reach higher still by means of the veterinarian.
And while a lot of these “excellent horsemen” leaned on vets, and rightfully so in many circumstances, again IMO, he crossed a line that every trainer knows is there.
And I personally draw that line dozens of occurrences prior to 30 positive tests.

30 !

I don't know how he does it.

But IMO a high percentage of his runners show up on race day 'bulked up' or carrying some serious muscle mass compared to the others.

Horse racing is athletic competition, and this, combined with owners giving him some really good horses, gives him an advantage.

Right now as I type this the horse weights for yesterday's 'Big Cap' haven't made it into the Equibase Chart Data yet. (I'm guessing they'll publish a corrected chart at some point.)

IMO Newgate showed up in the paddock for yesterday's 'Big Cap' very much looking the part:

Bulked up, shredded, and carrying some serious muscle mass.

If I'm not mistaken, the horse weights displayed pre-race on the track video had him at 1252 lbs (the highest among the runners in the 'Big Cap' field.)

Keep in mind Newgate is a 4 year old foaled on 03-11-2020.

IMO a 4 yo in early March carrying more weight (muscle mass) than older horses in the same field is kind of a big deal.

Not all tracks have their horses step on a scale pre-race and report horse weights to Equibase, but Santa Anita is one of them.

Below are abbreviated pps showing Negate's Santa Anita running lines leading up to yesterday's 'Big Cap.'
If yesterday's horse weight was 1252, it looks like team Baffert had him fitter for the 'Big Cap' than the San Pasqual.

Now here's where things get a bit interesting.

Newgate's first race as a 3 yo saw him weighing in at 1274 lbs after a 336 day layoff.

One could ask if the added weight is the result of a natural growth spurt between a horse's 3 yo and 4 yo seasons.

One could also ask if the added weight is the result of something else.

Years ago I never would have entertained that second question.

But given the history of positive tests, the question has certainly crossed my mind.


-jp
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He
 

has the best chemist in the world in a world of truths and rumors. However, if you were one of the sport of king types with nothing but money and you want the best 2 yr. old and 3 yr. old trainer in the world then you go to him. The man trains his horses to go fast and he is probably the best gate trainer in the history of the game. That being said, cheating is cheating and everyone knows he is a cheat like so many.

I will say this, in terms of California racing, look at has happened in all those divisions on dirt, no one wants to compete against him. Sadler maybe but lets face the truth, he has ruined the competition and he is part of the continuous erosion of horse racing. He said it yesterday in the interview with Jaquime at TVG that back in the day, the Big Cap, the track was packed, now the place was scattered. The battle between him and his Kentucky buddies against the other Kentuckians who hate him. Good vs Evil. Look at yesterday in order to help fill out the field is a prime example. Brad Cox brought in his horse coming out conditions and finished what last, dead last. His reasoning was the purse and a G1 and he can afford to ship. Bottom line is he should have been banned for years after what happened, Dutrow, Servis, Navarro.

Baffert is just too powerful and so are his connections. And the beat goes on. He is just like them there politicians you guys have in the USA.

I choose not to care about politics the same as I choose not to care about Baffert. If everyone who really cares is angry, and I don’t want to be angry, then I shouldn’t care

I’ve been following the career of Bob Baffert since he took control of War Emblem after the Illinois Derby many years ago. There’s been an awful lot of animosity directed at his methods of training and winning races and I’m not condoning him.

But whether the observations are good, bad or indifferent, you’d think by now players would be taking advantage of his success. Yesterday (3/3/24) at Santa Anita he had entries in 3 stakes races and won all 3 ! In case anyone’s has forgotten, we’re just playing a game that’s governed by a singe factor: The desire to Win -Money.
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You thinking betting all Baffert horses has a positive expectation?

Past year: 27%, 1.70 ROI
Stakes races: 29%, 1.69 ROI
Grades stakes races: 30%, 1.65 ROI

So how are bettors supposed to take advantage of his success?

The biggest problem for me is that he often has a legitimate dominant favorite that's too solid to play against and too short to take at the price. Typically, my first thought in that situation is going to be "is the crowd making any mistakes for 2nd or 3rd?". But then I look at the rest of the field and there's only 3-4 other horses, 1 or 2 of which are hopeless filler. So there's no value in the exotics either.

ROFL

Have you looked up the definition of "cheat" lately ???


"...act dishonestly or unfairly in order to gain an advantage... "


Despite all of those microscopic and sloppy overages, has there been even one which documented any "advantage" gained by the overages and not merely because he's better than most every other trainer alive?


Furthermore, how is it, that despite your having caught him "cheating" on so many occasions, the performances by his horses just keep getting better and better?

The age-old measure of an actual "cheater" in this game is that his/her win percentage dives considerably once the so-called "cheating" is unearthed.


That while Baffert's win percentage has remained steady in recent times, and is much better than it once was.


Upon first trying the Thoroughbred ranks, Baffert won with 15 of his first 48 TB starters, all more than 40 years ago.

Now again, where is the unfair advantage, and how come you've been too inept to be able to unearth it despite 40+ years of study?

I don’t know about anyone else, but it never ceases to amaze me when I see that some will immediately resort to posting overall statistical averages when reviewing results of any kind in order to make a point.

I don’t believe that being successful in this game means playing every race where a particular trainer enters a horse, or any race that a jockey may be riding in, and obviously not every race that a specific horse may be entered.

If I’m not mistaken a better approach would be to be very discerning when not only making choices, but especially when considering the return value of any selection.
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That's right! :ThmbUp:

The trick is not to bet on every Baffert entry. Just bet him when he WINS!

Amazing strats!

I don't know why I never thought of this in almost 40 years...:lol::lol::lol: