starting to plan for Oaks/Derby card
 

I want to take down a score this year and move forward

I cant believe this sub-forum is so dead with the Derby being so close. What happened to this place lol?

looks like a ton of speed in this years derby so maybe after about 8 years of the speed winning there is a speed showdown and mo and zandon roll right on by the tired horses. I am hoping to see if someone on this forum can post the triads and conduit mare that they did last year cause they were right on about not betting rock your world and essential quality

I don’t see a lot of speed at all

Hi DB,

have you been here long?

Twitter happened :) , and we get older :) still going strong,


believe it or not, some of the all time great horseplayers/punters have made posts on Pace Advantage. Also obviously some prominant journalists, racecallers... financial authors, chief risk managers, NHC winners, BCBC, CAW, team members from the hong kong teams like alan woods and others, Australian punters, Asian punters...

the site owner we know as 'PA' has really a hosted a site that is Hall of Fame worthy.


people die, people move on to twitter, people go broke!, people get jobs to flex the skills they've honed


but we have a great contingent Today that participates and some that 'lurk'/read...


it will build as we get closer to the derby:ThmbUp:

Is a freaky 'Baffert' speed (Taiba??, Messier?) somehow going to defy a hot pace and keep going this year?

Or is it more wide open for Mo and Zandon?

no speed whats this
epicenter e/p7
early voting e 8
messier e/p8
pioneer of medina e/p8
taiba e/p6
zozos e/p6
charge it e/p6
white abarro e/p 6
summer is tomorrow
simplification e/p4
cyberknife e/p4

Thats over 1/2 the field. you can find this info on a racing form

And Classic Causeway also.

Looking at the last few years brisnet PP

Every derby has had at least 6 horses as EP types and at least 1 E type
American Phaoroh Derby half the field was EP add another 2 Es

http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/up...8PPsCharts.pdf

hear rumors
 

is he really back on board??

I understand. Just love talking about the Derby. Have lived in Louisville for 35 yrs and this is the one race of the year that I really look forward to. Just nothing like it. Hope to see more people jump on between now and 5/7.

Early Derby forecast
 

Looking at the final 1/8th and 3/8ths mile of all the horses, and putting them into Steve Caris’ Derby list, I’m going to punch out my first picks.

The horses that fit Caris’ first and second Rule would be

Zozos
Early Voting
Taiba

Zozos and Taiba qualify on Caris’ rule of 98 Beyer or higher
Zozos 98 Taiba 103

Messier is a RAN horse. He had a last Beyer of 103. He has the Buckpasser X, but he came up short on his last 1/8th 13.1 He did improve his last 3/8th mile with a 37.8, so I won’t throw him out of my wagering. As I had said in an old post, you have to give some ground to a rule. Sticking to them like glue has cost me too much. Messier qualifies on some other good rules, so I won’t count him out. Also, consider that the Derby Winner canoe out of one of the Big 5 preps, but only when they qualified on Caris’ rules. Cyberknife did not qualify on any of Rules 1-2-3. Charge It is out of the Derby. I don’t consider the others too much as the top three prep races have produced more Derby Winners of late. But, don’t count out the horses for other exotics. Triples, Super.

Smile Happy is a RAN horse. He hit his last 1/8th in 13, nailed his last 3/8ths in 37.8, but his Beyer is not 98 and I think the others are a little tougher. If he gets a good PP, maybe.

Right now, I’m looking at Taiba as the top horse for an exacta wheel up and down. The two who qualifies on rule 1-2 for a triple box with Tiz the Bomb and Messier. This is just an early forecast. Anything can change. This is just to stimulate some thoughts.

just watched a video that said Taiba missed his workout and will only workout 1 time before the Derby maybe this coming Friday. all other horses (except Tawny Port which just raced and Happy Jack) are working. I am not a trainer but that does not sound good