Usage of Pace Figs In Running Lines in PPs
 

For anyone who uses Pace Figs published within running lines in Past Performances from industry suppliers or other sources, how do you use them when the Trk-Dist-Surf-Trk Condition of the race you are handicapping is different from any of the running lines available?

With horses being so lightly raced these days, it is often difficult to find horses showing a match between the two. When there is no match to be found, do you just ignore them or adjust them somehow to render them useful?

Thanks.

I use a best guess algorithm ending with the best of last 3 races if no matches.

Use the 'normalizing' effect of the Daily Track Variant supplied by the data provider to attempt to equalize those differences.

Perhaps suggest a race to illustrate the issue?

Ted

Usage of Pace Figs From Dissimilar Distances
 

Here's a simple hypothetical example.

Today's race is at AQU at 6F on dirt. It's a match race between two horses, A & B. Both horses have only one running line in their PPs.

Horse A's one running line is from a 6F race on dirt at AQU.
Horse B's one running line is from a 7F race on dirt at AQU.

Horse A's published pace figs for its one running line are 81-90-92.
Horse B' published pace figs for its one running line are 86-91-87.

In terms of analyzing pace potentials for today's race, is there any relevance between these two running lines at dissimilar distances? Would you conclude that Horse B will out run Horse A to the 1st call? Or that Horse A will be a stronger closer than B.

Or, are the pace figs from the dissimilar distances irrelevant?

Just my opinion...
 

Pace figures between 6f and 7f races are not compatible...because the races are run differently. The 7f races usually feature unusually slow first quarters, which usually lead to abnormally fast last quarters...as the jockeys are compensating for the added distance. You might be able to project how fast the 7f front runner might run the first quarter when it shortens up...but that would be just a guess. I find that pace figures work best when the horse is not overly restrained in the early stages of a sprint.

I find that 6f and 6.5f races are much more compatible, though.

I also don't believe that pace figures are particularly helpful when analyzing horses with only one lifetime start. Many horse improve dramatically in their second start...and the level of improvement is not always predictable.

Pace figures earned on different surfaces are not comparable!!! There's no formula to determine how much horses improve or regress on different surfaces. Each horse improves or regresses at a different rate on dirt, synthetic, and turf.

This problem is one reason I use adjusted fractional velocities rather than pace figures. With velocities you can see how fast the horses were traveling in each fractional segment, regardless of the final distance of the race. By combining the fractional velocities you get a total velocity, in feet per second. This enables you to more readily compare different distances. Then you only need to decide if a horse can stretch out or drop back in distance well. That's a subjective decision and you'll be right sometimes and wrong other times.

For different surfaces and off tracks, I use the horse's record on those surfaces or track conditions, but if they don't have any races of that type then you can check trainer records, and pedigree. When horses have never run similar races, pedigree/trainer stats are about all you have to go on.

If you are guessing, then it probably wise to keep your money in your pocket. Trying to compare 7F to 6F is a fool's game. Trying to compare 7f to any other distance is just asking for problems.
One of handicapping great ironies is that people who require samples of thousands of races to determine if a filly can beat a colt will use one race at a different distance often with a different jockey to decide how that horse will run today and bet like it like Native Diver in a Hollywood Park stakes race.

I'm looking at fractions when I want to assess the flow of a prior race with respect to a horse's trips, that's both a fractional to final time relationship as well as a visual interpretation of the horse and rider. For the pace figures that I generate however it's more about estimating forward placement than anything else. I want to know even if it's just a ballpark estimate where a horse projects to be running early in a race for risk assessment. It's not vital to have pace figures for any of these types of assessments IMO but it's more of a time management thing, same as my class figures. If I have good numbers, that gives me an initial framework to build upon and ultimately allows me to spend more time looking at things that might be considered more art than science.