Rich Perloff...really?
I usually like him, but he says that field size has no effect on the percentage of wagering favorites. He still thinks the favorite wins 1/3 of the time. He can't be this dumb, right?
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| thaskalos |
02-13-2012 06:14 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I usually like him, but he says that field size has no effect on the percentage of wagering favorites. He still thinks the favorite wins 1/3 of the time. He can't be this dumb, right?
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I used to think that the escalating winning percentage of the favorites was attributed to the shrinking field sizes too...but Dave Schwartz straightened me out.
As it turns out, the fields, on average, have not shrunk as much as one would think.
Dave thinks that the "whales" have more to do with it...and I'm beginning to think that he is right. |
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I used to think that the escalating winning percentage of the favorites was attributed to the shrinking field sizes too...but Dave Schwartz straightened me out.
As it turns out, the fields, on average, have not shrunk as much as one would think.
Dave thinks that the "whales" have more to do with it...and I'm beginning to think that he is right.
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I'm not saying it is the only factor, but it is a factor. And we both know favorites don't win at "only" 33% these days. |
I'll keep this pretty simple:
All favorites, the last nearly 250,000 races in my database (mid 2007), 36.06%
Field Size < 7, favorites win 42.20%
Field Size > 7 and < 10, favorites win 36.11%
Field Size > 10, 31.37%
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Just to be clear Gus, I wasn't relating the field size as shrinking. I'm just saying field size is a big factor in the percentage of winning favorites.
Average field size:
2007, 8.70
2008, 8.68
2009, 8.73
2010, 8.68
2011, 8.53
2012, 8.70
It doesn't even appear to be shrinking, but certainly is a big variable in favorite success.
I'll send this to him tomorrow. He went off air right after he made his statements.
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| big frank |
02-13-2012 07:43 PM |
what do you expect from know it all perloff. he is always condescending. is anyone else sick of him reading the race conditions ? i know class is important but it doesn't seem to do him any good. how many times have we heard him say figures are not important ? he is in the same league as bayless from espn. i can't listen to both these guys
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| Shelby |
02-13-2012 08:07 PM |
I learn from Rich each and every day that he's on TVG. I tune in on Mondays and Tuesdays specifically just to listen to him. I don't bet, I just learn.
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| johnhannibalsmith |
02-13-2012 08:24 PM |
Compared to that fellow before and after him, it's like listening to Pavarotti versus Bobcat Goldthwait.
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| thaskalos |
02-13-2012 08:40 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Just to be clear Gus, I wasn't relating the field size as shrinking. I'm just saying field size is a big factor in the percentage of winning favorites.
Average field size:
2007, 8.70
2008, 8.68
2009, 8.73
2010, 8.68
2011, 8.53
2012, 8.70
It doesn't even appear to be shrinking, but certainly is a big variable in favorite success.
I'll send this to him tomorrow. He went off air right after he made his statements.
|
You are right, of course, and that should be obvious to everyone...Perloff included.
The shorter the field...the higher the likelihood of the favorite winning.
But I am still stunned by the average field sizes over the last six years...
I would have never guessed... |
| big frank |
02-13-2012 08:54 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shelby
I learn from Rich each and every day that he's on TVG. I tune in on Mondays and Tuesdays specifically just to listen to him. I don't bet, I just learn.
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with all due respect , what the heck do you learn from ? |
I'm kinda glad I don't have TVG anymore.
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| HoofedInTheChest |
02-13-2012 09:25 PM |
Thanks for the stats cj, that's good to know.
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| senortout |
02-13-2012 09:40 PM |
If you are not wagering, you could at least
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shelby
I learn from Rich each and every day that he's on TVG. I tune in on Mondays and Tuesdays specifically just to listen to him. I don't bet, I just learn.
|
Write down the names of the horses he seems to favor, and heavily favor, or 'leaning towards favoring' some such categories and see how well he is actually doing!
(myself, I have no idea, since I don't listen to so-called experts)
report back! |
| AndyC |
02-13-2012 09:54 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I'll keep this pretty simple:
All favorites, the last nearly 250,000 races in my database (mid 2007), 36.06%
Field Size < 7, favorites win 42.20%
Field Size > 7 and < 10, favorites win 36.11%
Field Size > 10, 31.37%
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Does your database show whether favorites are more likely to be underplayed or overplayed due to field size? |
| davew |
02-13-2012 10:05 PM |
what exactly did he say?
every race has a wagering favorite 100% of the time.
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