NHC Free Members Contest
 

The top 7 in this pick and pray contest all had the 4 as their pick in all 12 races!
As a result all have qualified for the 2019 NHC Championship/ Player of the Year in Vegas!!

What a jock!!!

Hi Mike,

I opted not to join the tour this year because Last year, the NHC reduced the number of "spots" given to 3 instead 5 which was initially given in each 5 free contests per year. They never mentioned what their giving this year.

After participating in some other free contests, I found that luck and not skill
was prevalent and that these contests were a complete waste of my time and efforts.
Some of these contests featured 6 out of 8 races that had at least 2 or more first time starters.:bang:
If you like turf racing, a majority of these races were carded for the grass at a multitude of different distances.

Their ain't no free lunch.:D

:4:'s were definitely wild yesterday in the free contest.

However, there was a notice on the leaderboard that the NTRA was "going to be conducting a tie-breaking procedure", and notify the 7 entrants involved.

There were 5 NHC spots up for grabs.

I feel bad for the guy who finished 8th, $9 back of the top 7. He had the :4: horse in three of twelve legs, but actually handicapped the races to finish with over $167.....

I find this too coincidental. Out of 1898 entrants 7 people used the 4 in all races. Only two other entrants used the same number (1&2) in all races.

I know that the picks are posted in advance but still find this hard to believe.

Also, lower down in the standings "two" people tied for 1394 place using 666666667666 as their picks. Hard to believe these two were not the same person?

Off the NHC hype I skipped the feeders and bought into this for $500.

But not actually this contest. This one I cashed 5 of 12 and finished 13th of 28.
The day that I actually registered, I deposited $500, and I had 3 horses circled that day. Two won paid $18 and $16, and 3rd placed at 14.80.

The problem? That contest did not fill and never went off:ThmbDown:
Now they had my money, and I had no way to bet it, or withdraw it.

I have to play in another contest, another day. Let's forget about the 6-8 hours that I gave the card, or that I liked that particular card, and only registered that day to play that card.

Just as a matter of principle:

Do not cancel an event and keep my money.

Either:

1. Give me my money back.
2. Provide an option to go into the smaller dollar feeder with pick and prays.
3. Do better marketing.and fill contests that you post.

But do not keep my money. That's a big NO NO with me.

https://i.ibb.co/x8CDtTH/contest.png

Maybe they all really like the 4 in every contest race!

That's odd. I see lots of contests where, for whatever reason, the entry has the same number bet in every race. I would have guessed you'd have seen more entries using the same number.

It's also odd to see the players with the sixes except one leg go with a longer shot 7 in the 9th at Aqu. All I can suggest is that maybe they both watched "Talking Horses", and thought Borsa Vento (4th at 14.50-1) had a good shot.

I'm not sure what motivates players to take the same number every race, but perhaps there's a M/L analysis or astrological process to end up with the :4: dog yesterday. The early capper that had the seven entries high up in the standings faded a bit, but then another bomb 4 horse came in and it was all over except the NTRA conducting a tie-breaker.....

Hey Park,

I knew people who used to believe that, for some odd reason, betting the #1 at Aqueduct would give you a profit for the season especially when there was an Inner Dirt surface.

However, when you looked at the actual return on investments it rarely if ever resulted in a profit.

I took a look at the #1's from January 1st, 2019 at Aqueduct up until yesterday and even with a $123 winner on January 6th, 2019 if you bet the #1's you still come up losing

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...knoonesaqu.png

As you can see the win total came up to $449.40 and you would have spent well over $500 betting that way

Out of curiosity I will check the #4's at Aqueduct for this year

The #6 scratched in race 9 at Aqueduct so guess #7 was the next choice!

No Luck
 

I usually employ the number method in these free tournaments as i don't think its worth the time. This proved me correct. I actually handicapped this one as i was entering the other tournaments using the same races. I typically will go :4::4::4::4::4::4::4::4::4::4::4:, what a week to change my system:bang::lol:

So finally after all these years the secret to handicapping is revealed!



It's not Beyer speed figures, it's not the fulcrum, trainer percentage or pace makes the race!!


It's the number :4:. :bang:

Like anyone of these people will cash at next year's NHC...:pound:

Hey Replay

Don't beat yourself up too much since January 1st, 2019 the #4 is giving you less than $1 return on investment per $2 win wager!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag.../nofouraqu.png

I will check on the #6 but at first glance the 6's seem to hit the board more often

Will provide those payouts in another post

Never been able to afford (buy ins) the big Contests, so I've never seriously investigated.

Talked to some of the past winners, and they are legitimately strong players. Able to fully debate a scenario or a ticket structure.

-This has changed my negative outlook on the contest games, and I'd be interested if I could first see the big picture regarding rules, multiple entries, team-play, actual outlay cost, and then determined that the contest allowed for a relatively merit-based 'fair' playing field, and a positive expectation.

With the #4's at $2 per win wager you are losing at 16% since January 1st, 2019

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...fouraqutwo.png

Even with the $76 number on March 2nd

It turns out the #4 in sprint races when less than 3-1 in the Morning Line is just barely giving you a profit at 1%. Since January 6th, 2019

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...uraqulsthr.png

So you really have to get lucky to squeeze out a profit doing it that way