Florida Derby
 

:1: Strike Hard
:2: Classic Causeway
:3: Simplification
:4: King of Truth
:5: Pappacap
:6: Charge It
:7: White Abarrio
:8: Cajun's Magic
:9: O Captain
:10: Clapton
:11: Steal Sunshine

The Florida Derby is usually quite chalky. Pletcher has bagged five out of the last eight renewals and brings the lightly run and well bred Charge It :6: with Saez aboard. That's my selection here, however, I'm skeptical I'll get the 7/2 ML. He won't be too chalky though, with Classic Causeway, Simplification, and White Abarrio in there.

A couple random stats: The FL Derby has been the most prolific KY Derby prep, producing 24 winners, including 15 that won both. No horse that failed to win the FL Derby has won the KY Derby since Go For Gin in 1994. Seven FL Derby winners have won the roses since then. Basically, you want your tentative Derby pick to win this race or you might want to consider going back to the drawing board.

^ This wouldn't surprise me. The prototypical FL Derby winner will get a 103 Brisnet figure and this guy :3: hasn't cleared 99 in three routes. What you've seen is probably what you'll get (95,92,99). Further, while there are no pure speedsters in here, White Abarrio, Pappacap, and Charge It suggest he might not get a modest 1:12 6F call this time.

Also, while the FL Derby winner is usually one of the top three in the ML, the place horse is often not one of those:

2021: Soup and Sandwich 12-1
2020: Shivaree 80-1
2019: Bodexpress 71-1
2018: Hofburg 8-1

I could make a decent case for O Captain :9: to squeeze in there. The horse has improving Brisnet figures, gets the services of Rosario, has a pile of dosage points, and a double Buckpasser-x. He got out slow last out which probably dulled his mild late rally to hit the show pool in FOY. Strike Hard :1: and Cajon Magic :8: seem to like the surface and close on the speed figures. I'll have some fun with the dime super here mixing the chalks with a few bombers underneath.

good points on some of the place horses being prices

If you drop the filly into the mix... Secret Oath looks like a contender.

Never been a huge fan of simplification. The horse seems to win without changing leads, and I think I read the other day that the horse finally learned. In any case, I have Classic Causway on top... but kind of hope White Abario wins so I can toss him in the Derby.

:2::7::5::3:

I'm taking Charge It. This looks like a classic lightly raced horse continuing to improve. I don't want to miss the ride.

My toss is :6: Charge It. I don't think Pletcher ever won a FL derby with a horse coming off a maiden win. You can correct me if I'm wrong.

My value play is :1: Strike Hard. If he rides the rail and gets a perfect trip he could sneak through for a piece. Draw a line thru his last race because of the wide trip. My only concern is why he didn't run in the Fountain Of Youth. But at 20-1, I'm in. If he starts rising up the tote, I'm out.

These penultimate 'Derbys' and some solid big cards Gulfstream, Oaklawn, Turfway?, and then next week the Santa Anita Derby, Bluegrass and Wood Memorial.

gives you an 'opportunity' to find some value plays or lucky scores, and that's all you can ask

Going to make a bet on :3::9: with a W/S bet on the :9:

I hope you are right Robert. The last few "big" days have been chalkfests. I hope the 50 cent late pick 5 doesn't end up paying 60 cents.

What strikes me is the emergence of the sire Not This Time in this year's Triple Crown run.

Retired after his runner up finish in the 2016 BC Juvy, he is a big time player in this year's run for the roses.

Epicenter is already locked in as one of the Derby favorites after his impressive performance in the Louisiana Derby last weekend.

Here in the Florida Derby, we have :3:Simplification who is the ML favorite.

In the Arkansas Derby, Chasing Time is in with a shot, and then there is In Due Time that returned to the work tab yesterday after his runner up finish in the Fountain of Youth.

And with all that said I'm going with :7: White Abarrio at 7/2 or better. Really interested in how much action the :6: Charge It takes. Has that 'now' horse feeling.

as per equibase
Mostly Cloudy
Wind SSE at 10 mph
Temperature 85°F
Humidity 63%

Did it rain there last night? or is rain in the pipeline? my guess is it should be fine at 63% humidity... That said, I've read and heard others say it might rain?

wow,

what a strong field.

there's going to be a couple/few really good horses that will be otb in this race.

these horses would have potentially won or hit the board in a few of the other really light preps.

seems like the 1 is worthy of a longshot that might be able to menace.

the bad news is that simp and white ab both beat him by 4L and cc beat him by 6L. now he must handle pletcher as well. and if you put a line through pappas's last race, him as well


good news is he's not saddled with an outside post, this is his 2nd time route and should improve and wasn't very high, odds wise is a couple of those previous races.

Should be :2::9: not :3::9: