Who makes the morning line odds and what info do they use?
 

Seems like whomever makes the m/l odds for the all the tracks has one thing in common “ tunnel vision”. I would rather have no M/L odds. Let me give you one example how almost no work goes into creating the odds. This past week Finger Lakes had a race where four of the entered horses all came out of the same race about twoweeks ago. Based on how the horses finished in that race is exactly how the odds were done for the next race. If the odds maker would have looked at trouble lines and saw that 2 of the horses had horrible breaks and one was a DNF the M/L odds should have been drastically different. Of course the betting public got it right and those m/l odds were way off.

How much does the morning line maker for a track like Finger Lakes get paid? I'm guessing essentially nothing. It's just added to other duties.

There are very few tracks these days that pay a linemakers for exclusively. Most have multiple tasks. Oaklawn uses a few people in the racing off that trade it off.

Odds data posted by Redboard
"According to the handy-dandy chart below, the "points" should add up to around 125.
Let's just say that four starters will be 90-1 or over, so that's 4 points. Another four will be 30-1, 8 points, and that 2 will be 20-1 or 8 points. This will give us a total of 20 points for the rest of the field leaving 105 points for CC and Arrogate.

In this estimate, each could be around 1-1 or slightly lower.

I don't see either being above 7-5. "
By Redboard


ODDS POINTS
90-1 1
60-1: 1.5
30-1: 2
20-1: 4
15-1: 6
12-1: 7
10-1: 9
8-1: 11
6-1: 14
5-1: 16
9-2: 18
4-1: 20
7-2: 21
3-1: 22
5-2: 28
2-1: 33
9-5: 35
8-5: 38
3-2: 40
7-5: 41
6-5: 45
1-1: 50
4-5: 55
3-5: 62
2-5: 71
1-5: 83

Contrary to popular belief the job of the ML odds maker is not to handicap the field according to what he thinks the horses' chances of winning are. His job is to try to predict what the final odds will be based on how he thinks the public will bet. I guess that makes him more of a sociologist than a handicapper.

Exactly where does the ML enter into the handicapping of a race?

It doesn't.....The morning line serves no purpose that I could ever see, it's always been obsolete.

:ThmbUp:

If the morning line-maker were offering his own opinion on what the odds should be...then the argument could be made that the ML at least expressed the honest handicapping opinion of one supposedly "knowledgeable" person. But, as it stands right now...the morning line isn't worth a damned thing, IMO. What good is having an oddsmaker try to predict the public's betting opinion...when no one can do a good-enough job of it?

All I would like is if one of the short duration meetings, fair, Kentucky Downs, etc, would try it without any Morning Line whatsoever...gauge the effects/ interest then decide if they want to keep it or try going for longer without one...

It might even improve handle, who really knows...

The argument has always been: "If you don't like the morning line...then don't look at it." And it's a tough argument to tangle with.

The morning line favorites are most certainly used for handicapping. Just look at the pick 3 will pays in any final leg. The morning line favorite is ALWAYS the lowest paying one in the field.

yes, I agree, but WHO are the people that make this argument...?

Do they have a direct relationship to a racetrack..? To the DRF...? There MUST be reasons other than tradition, or because “that’s the way it has always been done”..

..I guess on my part I ought to think more about why I don’t want one...I guess I believe somehow that knowledge is power and that the ML is KNOWLEGDE that influences how people wager to steer them to contenders, when they might not otherwise land there without the ML...

I realize there is a real “selfishness” and cynicism involved in this view...in viewing the betting public, in general, as less informed than adepts on this board typically are...

...I guess I must think that there is some wagering opportunity that might result if there were no ML’s...I would tend to think that real contenders might be overlooked more often...and the odds of all would tend to regress toward a mean, and that since contenders win far more of their share of races than their long shot counterparts, that this might add value to the market price of real contenders...

IMO...the removal of the morning line won't add even a cent of additional value to the market price of the "real contenders". The players who are swayed by the morning line have abandoned the game long ago...due to "insufficient funds".

I agree, but that sounds like an argument for not having one at all...the sharpies today figure their own values and what they can live with before placing a wager...

..so if the ML is essentially of little use to them and the novices have left the game, then WHO IS LEFT to benefit from it to warrant the trouble to have one...?

You or I could put together the morning line, assuming we can read a race form.


Our goal is to pick winners and ignore the little stuff such as the morning line odds.