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TheOracle

04-18-2018 12:52 PM

Can We Get 4 Wins From These ML Favs less than 3-1 @AQU!!!

I took a small sample of Morning Line Favorites strictly less than 3-1 since March 24th, 2018

Out of 152 races Morning Line Favorites strictly less than 3-1 have won at a rate of 30.9%

To maintain 31% at least 4 of the 14 eligible Morning Line Favorites will need to win (three MTO's have scratched)

Code:

RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface:

1    04-18-2018    1st race    1    Disclude (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Four And One Half Furlongs    T A Pletcher    7/5#    Dirt

2    04-18-2018    1st race    1A    Ma Meatloaf (NY)    Maiden Special Weight    Four And One Half Furlongs    T A Pletcher    7/5#    Dirt

3    04-18-2018    1st race    4    Midnight Sway (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Four And One Half Furlongs    W A Ward    5/2#    Dirt

4    04-18-2018    2nd race    8    Contingent Payment (KY)    Maiden Claiming    Six Furlongs    G P Gullo    2/1#    Dirt

5    04-18-2018    3rd race    5    Radiant Beauty (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One Mile    R R Rodriguez    5/2#    Turf

6    04-18-2018    3rd race    8    Data Dependent (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One Mile    C C Brown    6/5#    Turf

7    04-18-2018    3rd race    7    Mo Smart (OH) (MTO)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One Mile    T A Pletcher    4/5#    Turf

8    04-18-2018    4th race    1    Forward Motion (NY)    Maiden Special Weight    Six Furlongs    L Rice    2/1#    Turf

9    04-18-2018    4th race    1A    Fast Getaway (NY) (MTO)    Maiden Special Weight    Six Furlongs    L Rice    2/1#    Turf

10    04-18-2018    5th race    3    Seeking the Blue (NY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six Furlongs    C Clement    5/2#    Dirt

11    04-18-2018    5th race    6    Camorra (NY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six Furlongs    T A Pletcher    7/5#    Dirt

12    04-18-2018    6th race    7    Princess Akris (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One Mile    M Vera    5/2#    Dirt

13    04-18-2018    7th race    4    Cerro (IRE)    Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    B N Levine    2/1#    Dirt

14    04-18-2018    8th race    2    Yummy Bear (NY)    Allowance    Six Furlongs    D G Donk    2/1#    Turf

15    04-18-2018    8th race    3    American Guru (KY)    Allowance    Six Furlongs    J A Jerkens    7/5#    Turf

16    04-18-2018    8th race    4    Polar Jet (FL) (MTO)    Allowance    Six Furlongs    L Rice    2/5#    Turf

17    04-18-2018    9th race    6    Cheyenne Bull (KY)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    J Servis    5/2#    Turf

I'm thinking these 2 will be among the 4 if after the 5th race there are no more than 2 winners from this group

6th race
#7 Princess Akris

7th race
#4 Cerro

Let's see what happens prior to race 5 today at Aqueduct!!!

TheOracle

04-19-2018 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle (Post 2304568)

Code:

RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface:

1    04-18-2018    1st race    1    Disclude (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Four And One Half Furlongs    T A Pletcher    7/5#    Dirt

2    04-18-2018    1st race    1A    Ma Meatloaf (NY)    Maiden Special Weight    Four And One Half Furlongs    T A Pletcher    7/5#    Dirt

3    04-18-2018    1st race    4    Midnight Sway (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Four And One Half Furlongs    W A Ward    5/2#    Dirt

4    04-18-2018    2nd race    8    Contingent Payment (KY)    Maiden Claiming    Six Furlongs    G P Gullo    2/1#    Dirt

5    04-18-2018    3rd race    5    Radiant Beauty (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One Mile    R R Rodriguez    5/2#    Turf

6    04-18-2018    3rd race    8    Data Dependent (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One Mile    C C Brown    6/5#    Turf

7    04-18-2018    3rd race    7    Mo Smart (OH) (MTO)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One Mile    T A Pletcher    4/5#    Turf

8    04-18-2018    4th race    1    Forward Motion (NY)    Maiden Special Weight    Six Furlongs    L Rice    2/1#    Turf

9    04-18-2018    4th race    1A    Fast Getaway (NY) (MTO)    Maiden Special Weight    Six Furlongs    L Rice    2/1#    Turf

10    04-18-2018    5th race    3    Seeking the Blue (NY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six Furlongs    C Clement    5/2#    Dirt

11    04-18-2018    5th race    6    Camorra (NY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six Furlongs    T A Pletcher    7/5#    Dirt

12    04-18-2018    6th race    7    Princess Akris (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One Mile    M Vera    5/2#    Dirt

13    04-18-2018    7th race    4    Cerro (IRE)    Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    B N Levine    2/1#    Dirt

14    04-18-2018    8th race    2    Yummy Bear (NY)    Allowance    Six Furlongs    D G Donk    2/1#    Turf

15    04-18-2018    8th race    3    American Guru (KY)    Allowance    Six Furlongs    J A Jerkens    7/5#    Turf

16    04-18-2018    8th race    4    Polar Jet (FL) (MTO)    Allowance    Six Furlongs    L Rice    2/5#    Turf

17    04-18-2018    9th race    6    Cheyenne Bull (KY)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    J Servis    5/2#    Turf

We got the 4 wins from this group yesterday but only got 1 winner from the two above and Morning Line Favorites are winning at 31% since March 24th!!!

TheOracle

04-19-2018 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle (Post 2304942)

We got the 4 wins from this group yesterday but only got 1 winner from the two above and Morning Line Favorites are winning at 31% since March 24th!!!

There were only 4 winners from the group of Morning Line Favorites yesterday

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag.../mlfavsaqu.png

The Morning Line Favorites strictly less than 3-1 have now won at a rate of 31% since March 24th, 2018

Let's see if they can maintain that percentage today at Aqueduct!!!

TheOracle

04-19-2018 02:00 PM

Let's see how these 12 do today (Threefiveindia has been scratched)

Code:

RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface:

1    04-19-2018    1st race    1    Social Fan (WV)    Maiden Special Weight    Four And One Half Furlongs    T A Pletcher    9/5#    Dirt

2    04-19-2018    1st race    1A    Kitchen Soup (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Four And One Half Furlongs    T A Pletcher    9/5#    Dirt

3    04-19-2018    1st race    4    Echoes of Laughter (FL)    Maiden Special Weight    Four And One Half Furlongs    W A Ward    5/2#    Dirt

4    04-19-2018    2nd race    1    Heyitsnricopalazo (NY)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    J C Englehart    2/1#    Dirt

5    04-19-2018    2nd race    3    Regalian (KY)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    C J Englehart    7/5#    Dirt

6    04-19-2018    3rd race    2    Just Bling It (KY)    Maiden Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    R R Rodriguez    8/5#    Dirt

7    04-19-2018    3rd race    5    Golden Vale (KY)    Maiden Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    B Tagg    7/5#    Dirt

8    04-19-2018    4th race    5    Jcs American Dream (NY)    Claiming    One Mile    L Rice    2/1#    Dirt

9    04-19-2018    4th race    7    Doinwhatshelikes (KY)    Claiming    One Mile    R R Rodriguez    5/2#    Dirt

10    04-19-2018    6th race    7    Hashtag Winning (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One Mile    T M Beattie    2/1#    Dirt

11    04-19-2018    7th race    3    Threefiveindia (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six Furlongs    C C Brown    9/5#    Dirt

12    04-19-2018    7th race    6    Life in Shambles (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six Furlongs    S M Asmussen    5/2#    Dirt

13    04-19-2018    8th race    12    Tribecca (NY) (MTO)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six Furlongs    G Sciacca    2/1#    Turf

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...favsaqumtn.png

We need 4 wins from this group in order to maintain as close as possible to a 31% win rate for Morning Line Favorites since March 24th, 2018

TheOracle

04-19-2018 02:15 PM

#3 Regalian has already won the 2nd race today at Aqueduct so maybe 3 more winners are in store for the remaining 8 horses from the above set

I'm thinking in the 7th race #6 Life in Shambles (horse involved with Claiming kickback shenanigans http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...light=Shambles) and #12 Tribecca in the 8th race will be among the winners!!!

Let's see what happens after the 5th race today!!!

TheOracle

04-19-2018 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle (Post 2304981)

I didn't realize #12 Tribecca has been scratched

TheOracle

04-19-2018 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle (Post 2304981)

Only 4 horses from the original set left so I don't think there will be 3 more winners today!!!

TheOracle

04-19-2018 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle (Post 2304998)

Only 4 horses from the original set left so I don't think there will be 3 more winners today!!!

The Morning Line Favorites had a rough going today as they went 1 for 10 and they have gone 0 for their last 6

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...uoneforten.png

This brings the overall win percentage to 29.5% since March 24th, 2018

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...ulessthrty.png

There is an average of 14 horses on a card that are less than 3-1 in the Morning Line

They will need to go 6 for 14 to bring the overall win percentage to 31% but I doubt that there will be 6 winners from among this group tomorrow

Let's see what happens after tomorrow's 5th race!!!

TheOracle

04-19-2018 09:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle (Post 2305139)

It will be interesting to see if there will be at least 3 winners from among this group prior to race 5 at Aqueduct tomorrow!!!

TheOracle

04-20-2018 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle (Post 2305141)

It will be interesting to see if there will be at least 3 winners from among this group prior to race 5 at Aqueduct tomorrow!!!

The Morning Line Favorites have gone 0 for their last 6 since yesterday at Aqueduct

There are 13 today ( Anna Rae will scratch)

Code:

RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface:

1    04-20-2018    1st race    5    Ribbonite (NY)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    R G Davis    2/1#    Dirt

2    04-20-2018    2nd race    1    Savannah Belle (KY)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    B A Lynch    2/1#    Turf

3    04-20-2018    2nd race    3    Talkn Til Midnight (NY)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    L Rice    9/5#    Turf

4    04-20-2018    2nd race    5    Ultimate Cause (KY)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    M J Maker    5/2#    Turf

5    04-20-2018    2nd race    6    Anna Rae (KY) (MTO)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    R R Rodriguez    7/5#    Turf

6    04-20-2018    3rd race    4    Proven Reserves (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    One Mile    C C Brown    5/2#    Dirt

7    04-20-2018    3rd race    5    Weather Wiz (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    One Mile    J A Jerkens    4/5#    Dirt

8    04-20-2018    5th race    4    Morning Breez (NY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    C F Martin    9/5#    Dirt

9    04-20-2018    5th race    5    Analyze the Odds (NY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    T A Pletcher    2/1#    Dirt

10    04-20-2018    6th race    3    Sentry (KY)    Maiden Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    C R McGaughey III    7/5#    Turf

11    04-20-2018    7th race    5    Can You Diggit (NY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One And One Eighth Miles    J A Jerkens    6/5#    Dirt

12    04-20-2018    8th race    6    Timeline (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One Mile    C C Brown    2/1#    Dirt

13    04-20-2018    8th race    7    Sunny Ridge (NJ)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One Mile    J Servis    5/2#    Dirt

14    04-20-2018    9th race    6    Financial System (KY)    Maiden Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    C C Brown    2/1#    Turf

If they go 6 for 13 today it will bring their overall win percentage to 31% since March 24th, 2018 but I highly doubt that will happen!!!

I am interested in McGaughey's horse on the Turf # 3 Sentry in the 6th race today

His horses have been doing quite well on the Turf so far at Aqueduct!!!

Let's see if he can get this one to the winners circle today!!!

TheOracle

04-20-2018 09:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle (Post 2305235)

The Morning Line Favorites have gone 0 for their last 6 since yesterday at Aqueduct

There are 13 today ( Anna Rae will scratch)

Code:

RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface:

1    04-20-2018    1st race    5    Ribbonite (NY)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    R G Davis    2/1#    Dirt

2    04-20-2018    2nd race    1    Savannah Belle (KY)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    B A Lynch    2/1#    Turf

3    04-20-2018    2nd race    3    Talkn Til Midnight (NY)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    L Rice    9/5#    Turf

4    04-20-2018    2nd race    5    Ultimate Cause (KY)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    M J Maker    5/2#    Turf

5    04-20-2018    2nd race    6    Anna Rae (KY) (MTO)    Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    R R Rodriguez    7/5#    Turf

6    04-20-2018    3rd race    4    Proven Reserves (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    One Mile    C C Brown    5/2#    Dirt

7    04-20-2018    3rd race    5    Weather Wiz (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    One Mile    J A Jerkens    4/5#    Dirt

8    04-20-2018    5th race    4    Morning Breez (NY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    C F Martin    9/5#    Dirt

9    04-20-2018    5th race    5    Analyze the Odds (NY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    T A Pletcher    2/1#    Dirt

10    04-20-2018    6th race    3    Sentry (KY)    Maiden Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    C R McGaughey III    7/5#    Turf

11    04-20-2018    7th race    5    Can You Diggit (NY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One And One Eighth Miles    J A Jerkens    6/5#    Dirt

12    04-20-2018    8th race    6    Timeline (KY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One Mile    C C Brown    2/1#    Dirt

13    04-20-2018    8th race    7    Sunny Ridge (NJ)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One Mile    J Servis    5/2#    Dirt

14    04-20-2018    9th race    6    Financial System (KY)    Maiden Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    C C Brown    2/1#    Turf

Well I never would have believed it would happen but 6 winners actually came from today's Morning Lines less than 3-1 and their overall win percentage is now 31% since March 24th, 2018!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...ixthrtnaqu.png

There was a pick 3 mixed in races 5,6,7 although you would have had to use #4 Morning Breez and #5 Analyze the Odds to get it cashed!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the # 3 Sentry play in the 6th race and was able to make a profit!!!

TheOracle

04-21-2018 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle (Post 2305578)

In order to maintain a 33% win percentage since April 1st, 2018 the Morning Lines less than 3-1 will need at least 4 winners from among today's set at Aqueduct:

Code:

RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface:

1    04-21-2018    1st race    2    Hay Field (NY)    Allowance    One Mile    J C Englehart    5/2#    Dirt

2    04-21-2018    1st race    4    Pink Twist (NY)    Allowance    One Mile    T A Pletcher    1/2#    Dirt

3    04-21-2018    2nd race    2    Catcho En Die (ARG)    Claiming    One Mile    W I Mott    2/1#    Turf

4    04-21-2018    2nd race    6    Souperfast (KY)    Claiming    One Mile    R Diodoro    9/5#    Turf

5    04-21-2018    3rd race    2    Archaggelos (KY)    Stakes    One And One Sixteenth Miles    M W Dickinson    5/2#    Turf

6    04-21-2018    3rd race    4    Fifty (KY)    Stakes    One And One Sixteenth Miles    L Rice    9/5#    Turf

7    04-21-2018    3rd race    5    Sand Dancer (KY)    Stakes    One And One Sixteenth Miles    T A Hills    7/5#    Turf

8    04-21-2018    4th race    5    Midnight Mission (NY)    Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    T A Pletcher    8/5#    Dirt

9    04-21-2018    5th race    3    Nominal Dollars (KY)    Claiming    One Mile    R R Rodriguez    5/2#    Dirt

10    04-21-2018    8th race    1    Horoscope (NY)    Allowance    One Mile    R R Rodriguez    2/1#    Dirt

11    04-21-2018    9th race    4    Pure Silver (NY)    Stakes    Six And One Half Furlongs    T A Pletcher    5/2#    Dirt

12    04-21-2018    10th race    12    Appealing Briefs (NY)    Maiden Special Weight    One And One Sixteenth Miles    J J Toner    5/2#    Turf

After such a good day yesterday I don't have any faith that there will be 4 winners to come from this group

Let's see what happens at Aqueduct today!!!

TheOracle

04-22-2018 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle (Post 2305687)

In order to maintain a 33% win percentage since April 1st, 2018 the Morning Lines less than 3-1 will need at least 4 winners from among today's set at Aqueduct:

Code:

RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface:

1    04-21-2018    1st race    2    Hay Field (NY)    Allowance    One Mile    J C Englehart    5/2#    Dirt

2    04-21-2018    1st race    4    Pink Twist (NY)    Allowance    One Mile    T A Pletcher    1/2#    Dirt

3    04-21-2018    2nd race    2    Catcho En Die (ARG)    Claiming    One Mile    W I Mott    2/1#    Turf

4    04-21-2018    2nd race    6    Souperfast (KY)    Claiming    One Mile    R Diodoro    9/5#    Turf

5    04-21-2018    3rd race    2    Archaggelos (KY)    Stakes    One And One Sixteenth Miles    M W Dickinson    5/2#    Turf

6    04-21-2018    3rd race    4    Fifty (KY)    Stakes    One And One Sixteenth Miles    L Rice    9/5#    Turf

7    04-21-2018    3rd race    5    Sand Dancer (KY)    Stakes    One And One Sixteenth Miles    T A Hills    7/5#    Turf

8    04-21-2018    4th race    5    Midnight Mission (NY)    Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    T A Pletcher    8/5#    Dirt

9    04-21-2018    5th race    3    Nominal Dollars (KY)    Claiming    One Mile    R R Rodriguez    5/2#    Dirt

10    04-21-2018    8th race    1    Horoscope (NY)    Allowance    One Mile    R R Rodriguez    2/1#    Dirt

11    04-21-2018    9th race    4    Pure Silver (NY)    Stakes    Six And One Half Furlongs    T A Pletcher    5/2#    Dirt

12    04-21-2018    10th race    12    Appealing Briefs (NY)    Maiden Special Weight    One And One Sixteenth Miles    J J Toner    5/2#    Turf

After such a good day yesterday I don't have any faith that there will be 4 winners to come from this group

Let's see what happens at Aqueduct today!!!

Well we got 4 wins from among this group yesterday which I didn't think would happen!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...avsaquysty.png

This puts the Morning Line Favorites at a 33% win percentage since April 1st, 2018

TheOracle

04-22-2018 11:13 AM

I suspect there will be only 3 winners from today's group of Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 at Aqueduct!!!

Code:

RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface:

1     04-22-2018    1st race    1    Blessed Silence (FR)    Allowance  Optional Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    C Clement    5/2#     Turf

2    04-22-2018    1st race    4    In the Lee (KY)     Allowance Optional Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    C R  McGaughey III    2/1#    Turf

3    04-22-2018    1st race    5     Inflexibility (ON)    Allowance Optional Claiming    One And One  Sixteenth Miles    C C Brown    8/5#    Turf

4    04-22-2018    2nd race    7    Pursuing Justice (NY)    Maiden Special Weight    One Mile    L Rice    5/2#    Dirt

5    04-22-2018    3rd race    3    Diamond Setter (NY)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    M E Casse    5/2#    Dirt

6    04-22-2018    4th race    3    Son of Mine (KY)    Starter Allowance     Six Furlongs    R R Rodriguez    5/2#    Dirt

7    04-22-2018    4th race    4    Stan the Man (KY)    Starter Allowance     Six Furlongs    J P Terranova II    1/1#    Dirt

8     04-22-2018    6th race    4    Way Early (NY)    Allowance Optional  Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    G Weaver    5/2#    Turf

9     04-22-2018    6th race    8    Speke (NY) (MTO)    Allowance Optional  Claiming    One And One Sixteenth Miles    T A Pletcher    6/5#    Turf

10    04-22-2018    7th race    5    A True Giant (NY)    Stakes    Six And One Half Furlongs    R R Rodriguez    6/5#    Dirt

11    04-22-2018    7th race    7    Retonova (NY)    Stakes    Six And One Half Furlongs    C J Englehart    2/1#    Dirt

12    04-22-2018    8th race    2    Significant Form (KY)    Stakes    One And One Sixteenth Miles    C C Brown    6/5#    Turf

13     04-22-2018    9th race    9    Long Haul Bay (NY)    Allowance Optional  Claiming    Six Furlongs    C C Brown    2/1#    Dirt

14     04-22-2018    10th race    8    Too Much Data (KY)    Maiden Special  Weight    Six Furlongs    A E Goldberg    5/2#    Turf

Let's see how they do today!!!

davew

04-23-2018 09:30 AM

I am curious how you are defining ->

Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1

as it seems you sometimes have 2-3 in a race.

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