odds change
 

charlietown race 8 this evening, how does a horse go from 1-9 to 3/5 after the race starts. i think i have that answer, before the race started the horse had over $8000 to win on him, when the race finished the horse only had about $5000 on him. somewhere between the start of the race and the end of the race money disapeared out of the secure mutual pool. maybe the shadow took the money out!!

Its the oldest trick in the book. Bet down a horse to odds to scare away other players and at the last second, create real value for yourself by cancelling a bunch of wagers. The pools there are too small, so if you want to gain an edge as a big bettor, you have to try some sleight of hand.

That's a pretty tough way to create value at a small track. There aren't enough people following the big money to make it worthwhile.

Cancelling wagers with operators I bet with is not allowed anymore, unless you realise the 'error' asap after the bet.

Let me take a wild guess & say that the horse whose odds went up lost?

the horse won and paid $3.40. the point being i would have played it at that ticket, but at 1-9 i either search for something else or pass.

the horse won and paid $3.40. the point being i would have played it at that ticket, but at 1-9 i either search for something else or pass.

Your scenario is normally the opposite of what happens at MP and the Meadowlands, I see a 2-1 shot that looks solid and somewhere around the 3/4 pole the horse goes to 4/5. I can see it happening a few times, late simulcast monies etc but it seems it happens a lot more these days.

i agree with the usual. the race i was talking about turned out to be a 4 horse field in chariletown. the horse was a scott lake horse that should have been 1-9 or 1-5, not 4-5. its actually a great bet at 4-5. at 1-9 there is no edge, you might as well bet to place and have 2 positions going for you for the same return. west virginia pays 2.20. not that bad a bet at 2.20 for place

It's possible that somebody bet the horse, didn't like the fact that the odds were only 1/9, and cancelled the ticket. It's also possible, as stated, that the person wanted to bet $1,000 on the horse, bet $4,000 to drive the odds down and discourage others from betting it, and then withdrew $3,000.

which ever case it is tom, its not right. there has to be more integrety to the mutual pools than what we are getting right now. when you complain to the track they tell you its the simulcast money. they don't bet, so they don't care. i do, so i care. i stay away. is that good for the handle, i don't think so. let these people lose their jobs because they lose the action coming into the pools and see how much longer this will go on.

even if its legitamate, which i doubt, its no good for business!!

Let me ask a question are you betting odds or horses? I f you like a horse no matter 1/9 0r 100 to 1 dont you bet who you like regardless of the odds?

While the process of constructing personalized oddslines is frequently discussed (and discussed..and discussed...) here on pace, nobody ever brings up the importance of a player's ability to predict actual closing odds.
How can value be identified unless a horse's true chances can be compared to its final price? And the odds can change so dramatically within a min or so to post-and even AFTER a race is underway- that smart wagers can be rendered stupid when it's too late for the player to cancel or adjust.

Since your return on investment = win% X average final odds, odds are 50% of the equation. So the answer is BOTH.

If you really believe that, I will cheerfully book any bet you wish to make, and since the odds don't matter to you, I'll pay you off at $2.10.