Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter (Post 2455486)

Originally Posted by Blenheim (Post 2455601)

Nice video, interesting to watch and listen to, that's what the game is all about . . . totally impressed w/what Mr. Mott had to say and how calmly and confidently he said it. Must be kinda cool out there in Kentucky in the mornings w/a thermal underneath his jacket.

I've got this colt in the top few. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ortiz brothers run :1:/:2:. Irad is ranked #1 in the country, Jose is ranked #3; best jockeys on the best horses doesn't happen by accident. What makes Tacitus so interesting is how Tax fits it. In the Wood, Tax dusted Tacitus on the turn, Tacitus had to go get him. When he got there, I don't believe he was much the best. If Tacitus doesn't lean on Tax in the final eighth, Tax wins by daylight and Tax is goin' off way long . . . so it kinda makes it interesting w/Tax em' right there.

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova (Post 2455624)

i don't know if tacitus makes tax look better or if tax makes tacitus look worse.

i do know that betting on wood horses in the derby has been a sure fire way to lose for a long time

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter (Post 2455628)

Tax is a solid underneath play. Buckpasser X horse. Has run 3 times at 1 1/8. Gutsy, fights on, as honest as they come. Wood has been a strong at producing superfecta hitters. Kinda Battle of Midway-ish.

Originally Posted by letswastemoney (Post 2455615)

He's gotten two big pace setups in a row. Will he get a third one?

Maybe. Maybe not.

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova (Post 2455661)

the wood hasn't been strong in anything. i think i pointed this out last year or the year before. you're looking @ around 15 yrs since the last wood horse hit the board. during that time they've had multiple runners each year.

obv not every year they went with 3 or more in the derby, but if you bet on any of these horses in the KD you lost.

2018 Vino Russo Enticed Restoring Hope 9
2017 Irish War Cry Battalion Runner Cloud Computing 8
2016 Outwork Trojan Nation Adventist 8
2015 Frosted Tencendur El Kabeir 7
2014 Wicked Strong Samraat Social Inclusion 10
2013 Verrazano Normandy Invasion Vyjack 9
2012 Gemologist Alpha Teeth of the Dog 8
2011 Toby's Corner Arthur's Tale Uncle Mo 10
2010 Eskendereya Jackson Bend Awesome Act 6
2009 I Want Revenge West Side Bernie Just a Coincidence 8
2008 Tale of Ekati War Pass Court Vision 9
2007 Nobiz Like Shobiz Sightseeing Any Given Saturday 6
2006 Bob and John Jazil Keyed Entry 9
2005 Bellamy Road Survivalist Scrappy T 7
2004 Tapit Master David Eddington 11

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova (Post 2455661)

the wood hasn't been strong in anything. i think i pointed this out last year or the year before. you're looking @ around 15 yrs since the last wood horse hit the board. during that time they've had multiple runners each year.

obv not every year they went with 3 or more in the derby, but if you bet on any of these horses in the KD you lost.

2018 Vino Russo Enticed Restoring Hope 9
2017 Irish War Cry Battalion Runner Cloud Computing 8
2016 Outwork Trojan Nation Adventist 8
2015 Frosted Tencendur El Kabeir 7
2014 Wicked Strong Samraat Social Inclusion 10
2013 Verrazano Normandy Invasion Vyjack 9
2012 Gemologist Alpha Teeth of the Dog 8
2011 Toby's Corner Arthur's Tale Uncle Mo 10
2010 Eskendereya Jackson Bend Awesome Act 6
2009 I Want Revenge West Side Bernie Just a Coincidence 8
2008 Tale of Ekati War Pass Court Vision 9
2007 Nobiz Like Shobiz Sightseeing Any Given Saturday 6
2006 Bob and John Jazil Keyed Entry 9
2005 Bellamy Road Survivalist Scrappy T 7
2004 Tapit Master David Eddington 11

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter (Post 2455750)

since the pts system a wood horse has rounded out the super 50% of the time... The Bluegrass has been horrible at producing just about anything... I dont think you can knock a race tho every year its all individual... its just kinda pot luck. To say they cant do this because they raced in that race is pretty foolish.

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova (Post 2455975)

c'mon..15 years and over 30 wood horses and none hit the board. and you want to extrapolate data to say you can't knock how bad the wood has been.

Originally Posted by Afleet (Post 2455691)

I think I had a few of those:bang:

Originally Posted by f2tornado (Post 2455676)

He doesn't come home that fast, at least on the raw clock. There are very few Derby winners that posted his final 3/8th or 1/8th. He hasn't really been flattered by anyone he beat. In my opinion, Brisnet has historically inflated Wood figures. The 106 Equibase figure is decent but a few points below a few other contenders. Further, I don't think he gets that great of a pace setup for his style. Last, he may have been getting tired at the tail end of the Wood and a cranky steward could have dinged him for Tax evasion.

Originally Posted by clicknow (Post 2456007)

I think I disliked Vino Rosso the most though, looking thru all those on the list.

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova (Post 2455975)

c'mon..15 years and over 30 wood horses and none hit the board. and you want to extrapolate data to say you can't knock how bad the wood has been.

Originally Posted by GMB@BP (Post 2456095)

Wood has really been hit hard by the Florida Derby date move, to some extents the Blue Grass has as well.

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova (Post 2455661)

the wood hasn't been strong in anything. i think i pointed this out last year or the year before. you're looking @ around 15 yrs since the last wood horse hit the board. during that time they've had multiple runners each year.

obv not every year they went with 3 or more in the derby, but if you bet on any of these horses in the KD you lost.

2018 Vino Russo Enticed Restoring Hope 9
2017 Irish War Cry Battalion Runner Cloud Computing 8
2016 Outwork Trojan Nation Adventist 8
2015 Frosted Tencendur El Kabeir 7
2014 Wicked Strong Samraat Social Inclusion 10
2013 Verrazano Normandy Invasion Vyjack 9
2012 Gemologist Alpha Teeth of the Dog 8
2011 Toby's Corner Arthur's Tale Uncle Mo 10
2010 Eskendereya Jackson Bend Awesome Act 6
2009 I Want Revenge West Side Bernie Just a Coincidence 8
2008 Tale of Ekati War Pass Court Vision 9
2007 Nobiz Like Shobiz Sightseeing Any Given Saturday 6
2006 Bob and John Jazil Keyed Entry 9
2005 Bellamy Road Survivalist Scrappy T 7
2004 Tapit Master David Eddington 11

Originally Posted by classhandicapper (Post 2456142)

I think the fall of the Wood is related to the spacing between the preps in general and the rise of the Arkansas derby.

The main preps used to be the Wood, SA Derby, Blue Grass and Florida Derby.

The Arkansas Derby has risen and the Wood and Blue Grass have declined.

I think the damage to the Blue Grass was somewhat self inflicted. When KEE went synthetic the quality declined a lot and it hasn't made a full recovery.

The Wood used to draw some of the best horses that wintered in Florida and elsewhere in the east. But now that everyone wants more spacing, each of the very best horses is getting 1 or 2 fewer preps before the Derby. I think the quality of the Wood has suffered the most for that reason because without the shippers, the NY 3yo winter racing is not that good. A couple come, but not as many of the very best ones as before .

That could all change though. All it might take is for 1 or 2 to win and perceptions might change.

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova (Post 2456011)

i see what you're saying to a degree...but it's somewhat hard dismissing accomplishments and leaving him out imo, and it's also hard to really slam or nit pick as well.

the tb derby has been a gr8 prep recently. and it was a fast race once again.

i would have liked to have seen him blow by and open up on tax but he didn't....and i'm not really in the tax camp, nor will i play him just because i play tacitus....but for that reason alone how bullish can i really be on tacitus.

if he draws outside he might really be toast or just become a closer trying to reach, which he might be regardless...lol

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid (Post 2457034)

There is a lot to like with Tacitus.

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid (Post 2457034)

There is a lot to like with Tacitus.

Maybe Mott can finally get off the schneid, and go full throttle with the breeding. Hofburg never panned out, was green and of the same style --- the difference here is that Tacitus has shown us he knows how to win and much more.

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid (Post 2457368)

Yes, coming from behind is always harder, and most of the recent races have gone to front runners.

Just look at:

Justify
Always Dreaming
Nyquist
American Pharoah
*Orb - 15th early, horses go 4th fastest 1/2 and 3/4 in Derby history

Still, you can only argue there are 2 horses that are better. Of course many can take steps forward, but only Game Winner and Omaha Beach can be argued.

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova (Post 2457417)

i just wished he put away tax more than he did. that bothers me. what also bothers me is there wasn't much comp in the wood as i thought there would be. not to mention the race was set up for him once again.

it' also seems pretty logical to think that one or a few the top stalkers/closers could be compromised in this race. and let's be honest outside of OB you do not know where the other top 4 will be in the race.

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid (Post 2457505)

I agree with this. As I've said, when I'm hard on a horse like this that I love for ability and other funny factors (gray, Mott, etc) he typically ends up 3rd or 4th.

I have said for 3 weeks now that this race is gonna be chalk, I absolutely think GW and OB are the best. They have more of the common scenarios on top, which is what gambling is about. Tacitus with the right scenario can absolutely do it, but he gets that probably 2-3x less than the top two if we ran it 100 times.

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate (Post 2458631)

"The curse of the Wood Memorial" not withstanding, Tacitus sure checks a lot of boxes and looks very much to me like the horse to key in a relatively wide open (on paper, and often for the Derby) race. I'd agree with Classhandicapper's thoughts on why the last 15 years the runners in the Wood have struggled three weeks later at CD.

Now I'll be bold and make a prediction - that the odds on Tacitus are closer to 6-1 than his 10-1 morning line. But maybe my view is just slanted. I would not want to try and make a living as an oddsmaker....