Tax
 

Curious about opinions on Tax? I like his last two and think he should have no problem with the distance, and be just off the pace. However, a gelding is usually a toss for me...

He actually reminds me a lot of Funny Cide.

Taxin' em . . .
 

Here is an upload link w/more info regarding geldings in the Kentucky Derby; good stuff.

Take a look at the average winning distance (AWDs) of the contenders in this Derby . . . most of them are sprinters. Only two (2) have an AWD greater than 8f and one of them is Tax. It is still early yet, but all things considered, at this point in time I've got him ranked # 2 . . .

Taxin' em . . . twice
 

I take your leave.

I would like to make a correction to my previous post. The AWD for Tax is 8f.

The post corrected:

Take a look at the average winning distance (AWDs) of the contenders in this Derby . . . most of them are sprinters. Only two (2) have an AWD of 8f or greater and one of them is Tax. It is still early yet, but all things considered, at this point in time I've got him ranked # 2 . . .

as honest of a contender as they come. Always seems to run a solid race. Breaks well and should be able to get him into position to pick up a piece.

He's got a classic heavy dosage profile
Tax DP = 3-5-23-1-0 (32) DI = 1.56 CD = 0.31.

That's 23 classic points and one solid point. The DI and CD are closer to what you would see with the average 12F winner versus a Derby winner. They have not won the Derby recently...

Justify DP = 5-6-8-1-0 (20) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75
Always Dreaming DP = 3-5-4-0-0 (12) DI = 5.00 CD = 0.92
Nyquist DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00 CD = 1.00
American Pharoah DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.88

However, we're not that far off from...

Big Brown DP = 4-7-23-2-0 (36) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.36
Funny Cide DP = 7-2-11-3-1 (24) DI = 1.53 CD = 0.46
Monarchos DP = 2-2-13-1-0 (18) DI = 1.40 CD = 0.28
Silver Charm DP = 3-5-17-5-0 (30) DI = 1.22 CD = 0.20

* He's a female family 1-x and those have won six Derby contests. Family 1 in general has been the most dominant in absolute wins however I don't know the specific impact value.

* He's Buckpasser-x

* He's conditioned having run in three consecutive 9F contests.

* He hits very high on the TimeformUS rating but less impressive with the actual 3/8 time.

Big negative in my opinion - Junior Alvarado.
Second arguably less meaningful negative - Nothing has won out of the Wood in a long time.
Another less meaningful negative - Has not really been flattered by any of his opponents.

He's probably worth a play in the gimmicks and a logical win bet if you're wanting to test your luck with a longer price. I regrettably mostly missed the boat playing Pool 4 gimmicks using solid 19-1 odds on the 24-All which will include Tax, the Japanese and Euro horses, and perhaps one or two others pending results of Ark and Lexington.

I usually find something to like about the foreign horses but am unable to find anything at all compelling for the Japanese horse this year. See anything?

Sunday Silence on top and the same tail female as Big Brown and Sadler’s Wells. Dosage and CD fit. Not sure how fast he is but the he shouldn’t need an oxygen tank at 10F. Will check out his race. Japanese players might make him an underlay. Using him is likely swinging for the fences.

Great claim! :ThmbUp:

Other than that, I haven't thought much about him.

Since you're only looking at the sire side, usually horses who win the KY Derby (as opposed to the Belmont Stakes) need a bit more speed than this one has. Its easy to see his classicity in his DP and then you look back at the pedigree and see where all those classic distance chefs came from. He may get a little speed from his female side mare's profile (where is bill lathrop when you need him) but I'm only seeing him as a possible ITM superfecta horse for the Derby. I don't doubt he'll get to the finish line, but for him the question is really will it be in time.
He does have a beautiful pedigree though and running style.......can he stay close up with the more speedy ones, I don't know!

certainly has the looks of a board hitter.

I’ll throw him in a trifecta. Pace might be just soft enough for him to get a share.

Taxation without representation . . .
 

40/1

Can't get no respect . . .

Pat
My complements to your derby chart ty