Lecomte Stakes PPs
 

The BC Juvenile has already produced next out winners coast-to-coast in Signalman (KY Jockey Club), Mind Control (Jerome), and Gunmetal Gray (Sham).

Mr. Money finished 4th in the BC after a clean trip and has some powerful works (2 bullets and a 3rd best of 145) leading up to this. He tired significantly in the final furlong last out so he may ultimately take after his sire and prefer extended sprints, but the mile and seventy yards should be in reach at this level.

Tight Ten broke sharp in the BC and was immediately bounced off the rail heading into the first turn by a pace rival before calling it quits early on. Willing to toss that effort when his previous starts saw him match up well to the highly-rated Cairo Cat (2 for 3) and Call Paul (3 for 5, G1 placed). Seems like he needs to be up close at this stage of his career and there's other speed lined up, but his worktab has progressed nicely since the BC and he should give a better account of himself here. A bit wary of his penchant for trouble/antics (bumped rail, lugged in, bobbled, etc.).

Live longshot is Mo Speed. He's a half to a millionaire dirt horse, so it's curious he started his career on turf, but he seems versatile handling any sort of surface and also any sort of running style in 3 starts thus far. Big morning line price on a horse that has never been higher than 7-5.

any 'talent' in here?
 

aside from the Lecomte itself;

:2::4::8::9::13: all have hinted at some possible talent

and we know :11: to be a solid sprinter/miler

of these, the :8: has IMO the most interesting form.


That's not to say the :8: is necessarily a good (or bad) bet in the Lecomte Stakes...

These are hunches and stabs.

I haven't studied the race beyond the superficial, but this field seems to be to the typical standard of this early Derby prep stakes.

Will be looking at the

:6:

:11:

:8:

:13:

Thats always the tough part about next out winners, as you point out there already has been good form from that race, but in context Gunmetal Gray caught a week field perfect setup and slow time, and I thought Mind Control had a pretty easy trip and not sure he beat anything. I dont remember the KYJC race.

I guess whats scary is if the race was that good how special could Game Winner be because he was dominant.

It is scary because despite winning clear, Game Winner looked like he labored to hit the front. Granted he caught a wide trip and at one point on the far turn was forced out and lost a bit of ground, but Rosario had to really get after him to get him in gear. His stride is unappealing--head low, legs all over the place--and Candy Ride is a bit notorious for physical problems.

And all this to catch Knicks Go? A colt that was 70-1 in his previous start and was absolutely buried (in the slop) in his next start.

I agree with your evaluation of those "next out" races, too. It's become a cliche on racing message boards, but I might join the "it's a weak crop" convention this year...

Full field . . . and rainy.
 

I haven't given the PPs a thorough look yet, but the first thing I noticed when compared to the Jerome and the Sham is that this race has a full field of 14 w/an AE. In the Sham/Jerome, plenty of room to run, no excuses. This one here might get a little bit interesting rushing to the first quarter.

As of this post, looks like rain most of the day . . . NWS New Orleans / Baton Rogue

Its pretty early, I would imagine we get a real good feel about a month from now.

No love for :12: Plus Que Parfait? He's the best one here for me.

After him, I like :8: War of Will second best. I'm not sure about him on fast dirt though.

That makes sense.
Tight Ten wasn't going to powerhouse a sprint win in the Juvenile, but that trouble certainly allows for a mulligan.
He's the class of this field. Distance is a question going forward, but this race may well shape up within his bounds. Rain could even help further if he is to clear with a smooth trip.

Nice big horse. A little disappointing to review the JVTURF and recall how forward-favoring it was. He's a great specimen, but he has some 'hang' in him. Not interested in betting him. I'd love to see him surprise me and finish full of run.

:1: Wicked Indeed - Tapit colts should be respected but not feeling this one after failing to kick in optional claimer on same surface. Does have respectable pilot.
:2: Malpais - Comes off decent maiden sprint win on the surface. Decent J/T and room to improve routing for first time. Possesses same tail female as Secretariat. Wouldn't be shocked but looking elsewhere for top spot.
:3: Tackett - Like Mr.P top line however Limehouse AWD of 6.4. Two routes under belt on the surface and retains Bravo. A modest improvement puts him in contention.
:4: Mr. Money - Must respect his 4th in Juvenile after a slightly bad start. Goldencents sire probably a good fit for this distance. Also has non-Phalaris dam sire line which I'm a sucker for. Contender but not sold.
:5: Night Ops - Plenty of routes under belt but none very inspiring. Best effort last out going 9F in the slop. I see turf in this colt's future.
:6: Hog Creek Hustle - Bombed the Iroquois but ran a respectable sprints since. Gets a top pilot with Geroux and LP figures will suit the long stretch. I could see it but looking elsewhere.
:7: Roiland - Had a terrible start in the KY Jockey Gold Cup and got up for 5th. The race has proven to be classy in previous years. Gets a better post and pilot here. Also adds the shades. I'm a sucker for In Reality horses. This one could be a live longshot.
:8: War of Will - Decent BC JuvTurf performance followed by a maiden breaker in the slop. Bred like a turf horse but could be competitive here. Can't complain if you get the 6-1 ML at the window.
:9: Mo Speed - Needs mo speed but has a route win on the surface.
:10: Chase the Ghost - Dallas Stewart has a knack of fielding the right horses in FG events. Big step up coming off route maiden win. Good one to throw in your dime super.
:11: Tight Ten - Not an ideal post for a horse that is known to go for the lead. Only needs modest improvement to contend here and has the zapper. Solid J/T combo. Affection in tail female.
:12: Plus Que Parfait - Necked in the KY Jockey Gold Cup, a race that has possessed a lot of class in recent years. Breeding looks like something I'd see at a Woodbine turf event which makes me wonder if last out in the slop is for real. Will consider if the track is sloppy.
:13: Manny Wah - Mr. P on top and Buckpasser from the female side. The colt has been consistent but needs to show more from this post to get the job done. Potential dime super addition and future bet back play.
:14: Admire - Dale Romans at 20-1 alone is worth a look. Tough post but solid recent work. Could blow up the dime super.
:15: West Texas (AE) - Broke maiden on first attempt. Has Remembrance in tail female. Hot trainer but this is tall order if he draws in.

Not sure how I'll play gimmicks here but will make a win bet on the :7:.

PPs list the Par for this race as 98.
Here are the actual winner's SR's from 1991 - 2017.
Par is 95

100
98
94
100
97
84
93
91
95
99
98
96
96
97
93
101
99
97
98
92
95
94
88
94
94
92
96

Nice write up. I will go w/7,8,12 over some stragglers in the super. Weather is so bad where I am my not be able to play this weekend

:4::7:/:3::4::7::8::12:/:3::4::7::8::10::12::13::14:

$24 tri if my math is correct. Will make changes once surface conditions are known.

I will play the :1: Wicked Indeed