Mahoning Valley Pick 6
 

Saw the jackpot 6 at Mahoning was growing quite impressively, figured they must've been handling pretty well. Looked at it today & realized it's been growing so fast because they take 70% of the pool to carryover every day, after a 20% takeout. Whoever was behind this decision should be tarred & feathered by the horseplaying community. The frustrating thing is as the carry builds, so does the handle & if this reaches closing day in one piece for a mandatory payout they'll do a record figure & crow about what a success it was, therefore continuing this cycle but hopefully not influencing any other tracks.

I like to bet the MV pick 6 but only do so early before the pool grows and on the mandatory pay out day. I’ve hit several times but nothing more then like 6-7k. The tickets I’ve put together are no more then 100 bucks so to me I’m very well ahead of the game. I have one big issue and I’ve mentioned it on here before: They refuse to show the will pays going into the last race. I’ve called the mutuel department a few times and the response I was given is they do not show the will pays because of possible pool manipulation. They won’t explain what they mean by that.

If your looking for a track that pays out the majority of a pick 6 pool as a consolation then look to Tampa Bay. They only carry over 20%. I played a $21 dollar ticket last week and got back like 660.00 for 5/6 with two consolation tickets. I thought that was incredible considering the odds of the 5 horses I picked.

Lastly, I know this is probably a canned type response but it comes as simple as it sounds. If you don’t like the rules of the wager just don’t play it. Good luck !

Unfortunately this is why tracks won't be cutting takeout. Bob is upset that the track doesn't show willpays but is OK with an effective 76% takeout. Sadly, it appears he isn't alone.

I know there is a member here that started a campaign of lies that I favor higher takeouts. I have fought against these jackpot bets from the start and at any and all opportunities. There are a number of reasons for this. One is that the carryovers are built on the backs of small players and then scooped up by the big players on mandatory payout days. Another is that they effectively take significant money out of circulation for sometimes significant periods of time. In other words they are the anti-churn wager. But maybe most importantly is that they demonstrate that many players aren't even the slight bit concerned about takeout, and this will effectively counter the argument that lower takeouts should at least be studied. It's a pretty unfortnate confluence of events.

If I look at a card or a particular race and find a great betting opportunity I will never let the tracks take out percentage scare me off of the play. It is almost like saying you have a lock on a horse but because the odds dropped from 5-1 to 2-1 you decide not to play it. If I’m confident enough in a bet and a track takes out 5-10% more then at others who cares? I still win. BTW The great Andy Beyer recommends betting those gimmic pick 6 races only on the mandatory pay off days which is what I do the majority of the time. He also favors the pick 5 over the 6 and I totally agree. Not showing the will pays is a different topic altogether. It’s just odd they are the only track that does this.

when the takeout stinks, you can be correct about an opinion, and not even have a long-term profitable bet available.

the predatory non-mandatory pools, and the hypothetical high takeout win pools
 

"2-1 is 2-1"

a 2-1 shot is not a favorite in a pool with high takeout.

Maybe your fair odds are 7-5 for a given horse and he's 2-1?

And you hate the 3-5 shot,
and you dislike the even-money second choice?

OK fine.:ThmbUp:
Make the play.

You just made a small profit, on a HUGE opinion, after showing the patience of Job.

That's a crazy thing to defend.

At least you love the game, and would be fine playing the ponies in those scenarios instead of using your time on something more fruitful.

Churchill Downs (and I think Turfway as well now) has the ideal pick 6 jackpot setup in my opinion - 20c min, 15% takeout & 10% jackpot takeout, no consolation payouts to 5 of 6 if all 6 races go un-hit. That means every day you're getting a fair takeout rate on a standard pick 6, the ability to spread with a 20c base & a chance to take down an extra jackpot. It pains me that this pool size is usually a pittance compared to the other less gambler-friendly jackpot wagers available.



Your response that an extra 10% of takeout won't affect your bets if you really like a horse is fair, but we're talking 76% takeout here!! If your 7-1 shot paid off at 7-5 I don't think you'd like that horse any more, let alone you wouldn't like betting on horses period. That 7-1 vs 7-5 payout is the actual difference between 20% takeout & 76% takeout.



There is no way in hell I would touch this bet on a regular day, but I'll absolutely be waiting in anticipation of its mandatory payout.

As to your third sentence, there is absolutely no one alive who would be profitable taking 2-1 on 5-1 shots they liked, so your logic shows you're probably not a winning player. The fact that people are willing to play into ridiculous takeouts just because "there's a horse I like" is why tracks can throw these predatory bets at us and we just fall in line because "jackpot".

I’m a very conservative bettor in that I handicap an entire card and if a horse does not meet my 5 star rating for a flat bet then I pass. Usually no matter what the odds be it even money or 10-1 etc I will bet 50WP. Keep in mind I usually end up making only 2-3 flat bets a week but last year for instance I had positive ROI on flat betting. Nothing huge but close to 1k. I know guys who will bet every race multiple tracks and they lose thousands year after year. You have to pick your spots like I do or this game will eat you alive. Those predatory bets ( as you call them) can be very lucrative to a small player like myself if you have the patience to wait for the mandatory pay off days.

The jackpot was hit yesterday for $266k. Manditory payout would have been (and still will be for much less $) in a couple of weeks.

The notion of setting out to have the only correct ticket on any type of wager seems unfathomable to me. But then again, I didn't like the whole "there can be only one" plot in The Highlander much, either.

The mind attains a certain calm, btw, when one ceases to fear sounding like a dinosaur. That comes with age. LOL.

If a syndicate has tote info, into who isn't covered, and a huge bankroll, they can take some calculated risks to scoop in the days between a carryover buildup and the final mandatory day.

Personally, I'm rooting for some small player who played some 'numbers' or built a ticket from a long shot that they really liked, and then got very lucky.

I've seen some in the past where a celebrated small ticket was later revealed to have been one of many tickets in a deep coverage series of tix by syndicate players.

The closest I've ever been to a 'lucky' ticket was a couple of years ago, during Pimlico's abbreviated meet. I think it was about a 28-1 shot, and I had the double, and thought I was smart for taking a flyer on the Pick-3. Then I was surprised to see that only 2 tickets cashed in the P5? and no one played the P6, both hittable w/ otherwise solid handicapping. (would've could've...)

Total 'Lotto' ticket most other days if I were to have guessed with a few strange horses in a sequence.

I haven't even gone back to the charts of this Mahoning sequence, to see the prices that happened to come in, and watch the races.

I think I'm a brontosaurus. :)

Just got done with morning duties-closed and drawn for wed..thinking about grabbing a form, heading to the hotel, and playing some mvr..but most years I don't start that until our season is over. and i'm going in cold with no trip or bias notes..

The 8 jock in 7th race has his hands full with a badly faltering, lugging in mount still well in front, but instead of staying totally focused and on task..he looks back 3x..three times..unreal..had no dog in fight..but it probably cost him the race, considering the narrow margin of defeat..

The jackpot bets are pretty simple to avoid and tbh if you’re going to handicap a 6 race sequence at a C rate track, you probably deserve to live with understanding that even when you win, you lose