Louisiana Derby
 

:1: Shopper's Revenge - S. Asmussen
:2: Instant Coffee - B. Cox
:3: Curly Jack - T. Amoss
:4: Sun Thunder - K. McPeek
:5: Disarm - S. Asmussen
:6: Kingsbarns - T. Pletcher
:7: Cagliostro - C. DeVaux
:8: Single Ruler - J. Desormeaux
:9: Tapit's Conquest - B. Cox
:10: Denington - K. McPeek
:11: Jace's Road - B. Cox
:12: Baseline Beater - N. Pessin

I'm not terribly impressed with this year's field, however, the prep has produced a lot Kentucky Derby board hitters in recent years and one winner (by DQ) and therefore requires appropriate attention for potential wagers on Roses day. There's not much separation on paper between most of these, and given the number of entrants, the race has potential to produce healthy exotics payouts.

The :2: is a legitimate chalk but ran an underwhelming 33 second final two and a half panels in the Lecomte. Stanley Caris fans will appreciate his Buckpasser-x and 23-b tail female family. Saez up is a big plus. Enough there to use on top but not a single for me. Does he have enough tactical speed? Most winners in this feature are near the engine at the 1/2 mile call. The :4: ran well in the Risen Star but got outkicked to the wire and now must go an extra half. Seems more like an exotics contender than a win. Might need a meltdown. The :5: takes a big step up in class but has the bloodlines to appreciate this distance. The pilot has won the last two renewals and the trainer is no stranger the winner's circle. Could pop but looks like more of an exotics contender. The :6: looked just swell at Tampa and has room to improve. Like the J/T and this one seems worth a win play at the price. Looks like one that will be be sitting close to the front. The :7: is improving horse for course that has potential to spoil gimmicks. :9: gets a hot Franco and Cox is no slouch here. :10: is well raced at this point. Ran a nice Brisnet figure last out and would likely need to improve yet again to contend here. Doesn't have the running style that typically wins this event. Would likely need a meltdown to contend for the exacta. :11: has a great J/T combo for the track. Maybe draw a line through last out in the Oaklawn slop unless it rains here Saturday. If he runs like he did in the Gun Runner then will be a credible threat. Slight knock on the draw but there's not much for urgent speed in this affair and he should have no trouble getting in position. Never underestimate Cox's "other" entrant. He pulls a Baffert sometimes like he did in the Risen Star.

Learning toward a :2::6::11: exacta box here if the track is fast. Just about anything else could hit the trifecta or dime super.

The immediate question for me is, where's the speed?

My best guess is the #6 Kingsbarns for Pletcher/Prat/Spendthrift.
My humble figures have his last race with the top pace numbers by a fairly wide margin, and I think he could be a dangerous if he gets away early.
Hopefully, Prat will ride him like he's the chief pace player and establish a clear lead.
Anywhere near his 6-1 ML and this colt is my key runner.
Will use with all three Cox runners.

My favorite of those is the #9 Tapits Conquest, who went impossibly wide on the far turn in the Risen Star and still ran on pretty well in the lane. Franco takes over for Geroux (who rides Jace's Road from the #11 hole) & hopefully he works out a better trip.

FAIR GROUNDS SAT 3-25 -LA DERBY - R12…….
Based on the forecast for Sat the track should be fast.
As of today (Wed) the surface is playing favorably for those both making and running on the pace.
The LA Derby seems to be an evenly matched race with currently decent odds value.

I see the early speed coming from the :1:, :3:, :6: and :11:.
Of these perhaps the :6: and :11: hang on for a piece.
Note: Of these two the :11: has the better WOs and a race over the track.
The best of those running ON the pace should be the :2:, :5:, and :10:.
All three show excellent WOs, but only the :2: and :10: have raced over the track.
Of the Closers the :4: and :9: seem best and have raced over the track, but the :4: showing the better WOs.

In this 1-3/16-mile race I don’t see any of the front runners wiring this field.
My final choices and betting structure will be based on how the betting shapes up.
In the meantime, I’m leaning toward keying both the :2: and :5: with the :4:, :6:, :9:, and :11: for vertical play.

GL

#6 Kingsbarns is undefeated & has the 1st race out from Tampa angle.

#2 Instant Coffee & #11 Jace's Road have short layoffs. They both won 1st time out and won again off of short layoffs.

#4 comes from way off the pace and might land a small share in what I expect to be a slow early pace race.

Instant Coffee and Sun Thunder look like the major threats in here. If they all go there should be some traffic opportunities.

this looks like a pretty close race to me. unless pletch runs away and hides.

there's a bevy of inseparable horses that's gonna wanna close into this race.

speed has to come from jace. don't know if he's good enough but lack of other viable options and his wire job in the 100k GR seems like he's the best option.

curly jackson can run early but never runs a good race when he does. his last race he was WALKING halfway through the stretch. could improve 2nd layoff as he did finish a solid 2nd to coffee in nov. horse should be long odds.

i guess we'll see if shoppers revenge is good enough. if i was part of the connections i would want to roll the dice and turn him loose for better or for worse.


longshot i like a little is single ruler. he's a lil' slow but his RS was encouraging. horse got a bad drive or something happened. around the final turn he backed up and swung ridiculously wide closing with most of the top finishers when he seemingly was in a good spot up close. has shown some position speed in his maiden races. odds should be really long as well. gets a jock change.

This race is loaded with stamina-laden pedigrees, as befitting its 1 3/16-mile distance: An outright majority of the field has both a Dosage Index of <4.00 and at least some Solid and/or Professional chef-de-race influences in their Dosage Profiles. The exceptions are Curly Jack, Disarm, Cagliostro, Jace's Road, and Baseline Beater. Cagliostro also has a DI >4.00 (4.71).

:6: Kingsbarns out of the Pletcher barn looks like he could sit on the lead in a paceless race.

Looks to be absolutely zero speed in this field.

Cox has 3 entries. :2::9::11: should play a big factor.

caglio has been working swiftly. has been improving with every start as well.

that fast allow race looks like it stacks up well vs these as well. did show early foot in his debut at SAR @ 7f. losing hernandez to sun thunder doesn't seem as cut and dry or this horse is better than that horse angle than a couple of the other choices a few jox made.

geroux picking jace over conquest speaks of higher volumes.

other choices seem to be lanerie picking the 12 over the 10 and santana with the 1 over the 5

The :9: Tapits Conquest is going to scratch. Manny's riding in New York Saturday.

they've been saying that rumor for days.i hope they don't scratch him. he's being left off my ticket regardless.

many different ways to go about this race. but for the sake of just playing exactas i believe you really have to start with the two fav's. 2/6 to give yourself the best chance to hit it.

that leaves you 3 more to get it to realistic number. i mean, if you're boxing 5 horses and don't include them it just seems dicey.

pecking order favoritism should be lower on many horses that you think will be higher as well.

i don't see much value in the 4 considering his running style. and that horse might be 3rd choice. i'm sure the 11 will get over bet as well just going down the line as logical speed.

after that i really don't know what things will be for many horses. the 1/5/9 might be lower than you think as well. don't know where the 7/10 will be but i think the 7 will get more action and similar to the 1/5/9 in the 5-10-1 range.

i just think that many people will be disappointed when they see the odds.

good news is if you like a few of the big longshots. as they're not without hope in a race that's hard to eliminate anyone.

it's pretty hard to to pick only 3 more from 10 horses. you're going to have to take a stand on many horses that can beat you.

for me i let the jock eliminate the horse by taking another. can't really play the 3 afer his last race. santana picked the 1 over the 5 so there goes another. geroux picked the 11 over the 9 so there's another. 10 is next for various reasons and the 12 will be last in the race. bingo, down to 6 horses. but i want to be at 5

1/2/6/(7)/8/11

not a very glamorous five. and prolly the only way for a big payout is for the 8 (watch his strange last race.)to get into the number. i really want to work the 7 in this ticket as well. he will be used in some form.

as for trips i will prolly dabble with the 2/6 on top with those other horses. the payoffs might be much bigger than the exacta. but the thing is i really don't love he two fav's that much.

LAD
 

:2: Instant Coffee is a solid chalk, but I'm not 1000% sure he'll get a good flow if he settles far off the early pace again.
Could also see him a bit more mid-pack.

lot of this race dynamics stuff works together with the projected pace, the roles and needs of certain runners, the runn to the first turn, etc...

I need my coffee

Looks like a good betting race. I am going with #5, Disarm, and will key him over the 2, 4, 6, and 7. Good luck to everyone wagering!