Cal-Expo Spot Play

[traynor]

CalX Pace CloseToPaceFinLastAll 608 29.93 % ROI 1.24

Translation: This is an easy one. Look for a pacer that finished in the lead or less than 3 lengths back at the finish in its last race. That covers a LOT of entries (29.93%). If you are only betting a single race at a time, or just the one track, you can probably improve the return by tossing the entries going off at even money or less if there are multiple qualified entries.

My reason for posting this is that it is an unusual situation at CalX. At most harness tracks, close up finishers in the last race are so overbet that it is a big loser. That does not apply at CalX.

[imofe]

Ten tears ago I was testing a repeat winner spot play and it had a positive return at ten tracks in the prior two years. Since then five of the tracks have turned negative, four are about even , and Cal Expo has remained positive year after year. Must be something at that track where the public wants to bet against horses that have performed well in their last start.

Also, at the other nine tracks where the profits have disappeared, the win rate (%) of these horses is almost exactly the same. What has changed is the prices these horses return to win.

[traynor]

Ten tears ago I was testing a repeat winner spot play and it had a positive return at ten tracks in the prior two years. Since then five of the tracks have turned negative, four are about even , and Cal Expo has remained positive year after year. Must be something at that track where the public wants to bet against horses that have performed well in their last start.

Also, at the other nine tracks where the profits have disappeared, the win rate (%) of these horses is almost exactly the same. What has changed is the prices these horses return to win.

It seems--from results--that certain profiles are overbet by racing fans with little thought given to whether the bets made are productive or not. One of those profiles seems to be an emphasis on last race winners.

[traynor]

Example of applying the spot play mentioned above for Cal Expo, from last night's races:

Dec262012, CalX,R04, Pace, 5280, Fast, 2000, 8, VillageBenjamin, 28.10, 58.21, 88.93, 119.24, 7, 7, 7Z, 4, 1, 11.25, 7, 5.5, 1.75, 0, 119.24, 29.31,20.30, GeneVallandingham, GeneVallandingham, 38.10, 740.60, 1.0000
(odds) 20.30 (mutuel) 42.60

Dec21 CalX 2000 1 4 4 2 2 2 119.21 30.64 29.46 58.72 88.17 119.21

Village Benjamin actually finished a neck back to place in the race of Dec 21. A solid contender in last night's fourth race, at odds better than 20 to 1.

[traynor]

And for a really good example of why I am reluctant to post other than general comments and to studiously avoid specific recommendations, the CalX results for the weeks following the below posting are representative. The strike rate increased slightly--the ROI dropped like a rock.

CalX Pace CloseToPaceFinLast All 724 30.80 % ROI 0.58


Is this unusual? Not in the least. However, because I actually bet on this stuff, rather than just "posting selections," it is a bit like throwing money down the drain. A few cyberspace pats on the head are inadequate compensation for lost income.


CalX Pace CloseToPaceFinLastAll 608 29.93 % ROI 1.24

Translation: This is an easy one. Look for a pacer that finished in the lead or less than 3 lengths back at the finish in its last race. That covers a LOT of entries (29.93%). If you are only betting a single race at a time, or just the one track, you can probably improve the return by tossing the entries going off at even money or less if there are multiple qualified entries.

My reason for posting this is that it is an unusual situation at CalX. At most harness tracks, close up finishers in the last race are so overbet that it is a big loser. That does not apply at CalX.