NW1X Allowance Race

[Capper Al]

While I'm waiting for my children to arrive for Xmas, this will be a good time to continue our parsing of Quinn's rules on class. The beginner would see the races separated something like Maiden and Non Maiden and maybe Turf. This granularity of break down into allowance NW1X is definitely the realm of the intermediate to advanced handicapper.

Quinn's rules for NW1X (From the Book 'Bet with Best':


Lightly raced 3-year-olds and 4-year-olds having relatively few attempts and impressive performances.
Maiden winners who have equaled par for the NW1X allowance level, provided they have contested a par pace or faster.
European imports who have beaten half the field in a listed or group stakes of France, England, Ireland, or Germany.
In 4-and-up races during winter, in the absence of the above, winners of claiming races at class levels comparable to NW1X allowance level.
Quinn's Eliminations for NW1X:


4-and-up horses having more than 15 starts, or having lost more than six NW1X allowances.
5-and-up horses, unless they are lightly raced, exit a top barn, and have superior speed and pace credentials.
Recent maiden winners that have sub par speed figures for the NW1X allowance level, or have won following a soft or slow pace.
4-and-up claiming horses who have not won or finished close recently at a claiming level equal to today's NW1X.
Maiden claiming winner last out, no matter how fast the time or how great the margin of victory.
Horses who have been entered more than once in a 3-year-old claiming race, unless the most recent claiming races have resulted in unusually fast, impressive victories and no authentic allowance prospects have been entered.

[Capper Al]

I look at how many races a horses has run. It has helped my handicapping and is good for NW1X races.

[Capper Al]

one who understands NW1X is a competent capper. These races can be a good sorce of income because the horses who came in the money last time out might not be the best bet. Speed figures can be deceiving here almost to the point where the winner gets a 40 point jump. Like I said earlier, beginners see the race types as Maiden, Non Maiden, and turf races. I don't believe this is a forum of beginners. It would be nice to hear from somebody that knows something or has had experience with NW1X races. Anyone out there?

Thanks

[johnhannibalsmith]

I'm no Quinn, but for me, evaluating the candidates in any "other than" race, especially a 1x, requires some familiarity with the actual circuit at which it is being run.

Simply, usually at an elite circuit, recent maiden winners and those with few attempts at the level, basically those in on the "non-two life" element of the clause are those that tend to have the raw talent.

At the lower tiers, circuits that I tend to prefer, the "good old" horses, the hard knocking claimers that have won a handful or more races often compare favorably to the locals that fit the winning profile at the elite circuits. Obviously it isn't always the case, but being the best maiden at the "special weight" level at a cheaper locale tends to require comparitively less talent than at a major circuit. I end up handicapping in reverse - can this horse that just broke its maiden by six in its debut go to Hollywood or Belmont and win an open $16,000 claimer - the level at which another horse in the field had been successful before moving to this circuit?

I agree that they can be lucrative races - at least for me at the smaller tracks because of the tendency for some to gravitate towards those that earned big numbers off of easy wins over maidens. Horses that appear "cheaper" because they have been running for a price consistently get overlooked or undervalued often despite more experience, wins, and a tendency towards comparitively more flexibility in terms of running style.

[Robert Goren]

My experence is that once you get to the point where they are running them for horses other than 2yo or 3yo alone. A MSW last out winners needs a big SR edge in it win to win one of those. MCL have last out have very little chance. I like horse who at some point won a MSW race and has 2 or 3 times well in these. I never bet a horse has another horse in the race who beat it recently. I hate horses that didn't start till late in their 3 year old year or until they were 4 year olds. These are some my best ROI races.

[Beachbabe]

What used to be "NW of a race other than maiden, claiming or starter" has now gotten the "add-ons" so prevalent today:

Nw 1 X; or NW 2 races lifetime; or claiming price $ xxxxx

[Capper Al]

What's to note about Quinn's approach to NW1X is that usually half of the card or more can be eliminated before even looking seriously at a speed or pace figure. This helps walking around false favorites.

[andicap]

You have to differentiate between young NW1 races and those for older horses.

There are NW 1 allowance races run later in the year that often have a bunch of losers in there -- unless there is a lightly raced horse who generally would have a huge edge in these affairs as Quinn points out.

Or there are NW1 races for older horses earlier in the year with a bunch of confirmed losers. Not to mention state-bred NW1 races which are basically glorified claiming races in most states.

[CincyHorseplayer]

These races are busted up into optional claimers and statebreds so much the profiles can be diverse.I find in the winter they are wide open competitive or not competitive at all.Younger,lightly raced on the turf is where I have my best success.

[Robert Goren]

You have to differentiate between young NW1 races and those for older horses.

There are NW 1 allowance races run later in the year that often have a bunch of losers in there --out. unless there is a lightly raced horse who generally would have a huge edge in these affairs as Quinn points

Or there are NW1 races for older horses earlier in the year with a bunch of confirmed losers. Not to mention state-bred NW1 races which are basically glorified claiming races in most states.I love betting against those kind of horses. They generally have major problems or they would have run more. Owners do buying oats for horses that never start.

[cato]

I'm not really following your statement. We are talking about NW1, right? They better be lightly raced or they will be proven losers.

I think you have to look at that by year - and other circumstances for sure - but I pretty much am going to favor lightly raced 2 and 3 year olds in NW1. I'll be skeptical of a lightly raced 4 yr and would not bet on a lightly raced older horse with your money!

Cheers, Cato

[Robert Goren]

I'm not really following your statement. We are talking about NW1, right? They better be lightly raced or they will be proven losers.

I think you have to look at that by year - and other circumstances for sure - but I pretty much am going to favor lightly raced 2 and 3 year olds in NW1. I'll be skeptical of a lightly raced 4 yr and would not bet on a lightly raced older horse with your money!

Cheers, Cato A lightly raced horse late in its three year old year is a bad bet. IMO. Why hasn't it raced more? The answer is almost always is it is hurting and they finally got it pieced together enough to run a race or two. Also remember there is nothing that horse has accomplished that the rest of the starters haven't also accomplished. I am prejudice in favor of sound horses. I have seen too many of these lightly raced horses dropped in their next start or two to the near the bottom of the claiming ladder to take them seriously especially at the very low odds you likely be getting. Bet them if you like, it is your money. But it will soon be the money of people like me.
People post charts here of almost everything from their data bases. But I have never seen a chart of a lightly raced horse trying for their second win posted here.

[Capper Al]

A lightly raced horse late in its three year old year is a bad bet. IMO. Why hasn't it raced more? The answer is almost always is it is hurting and they finally got it pieced together enough to run a race or two. Also remember there is nothing that horse has accomplished that the rest of the starters haven't also accomplished. I am prejudice in favor of sound horses. I have seen too many of these lightly raced horses dropped in their next start or two to the near the bottom of the claiming ladder to take them seriously especially at the very low odds you likely be getting. Bet them if you like, it is your money. But it will soon be the money of people like me.
People post charts here of almost everything from their data bases. But I have never seen a chart of a lightly raced horse trying for their second win posted here.

A lightly raced horse late in its three year old year is a bad bet. IMO. Why hasn't it raced more? Is it wrong to assume that the horse needed something that the barn had to work out? Given if the horse is re-enter at or below its previous class from a good barn with a few workouts in-between, I'll consider the horse and have been successful with them.

[Tom]

The variant are not bogus - they are what they are.
They are either fast or slow or neutral.
Why is this concept to shard for you to grasp?

[Capper Al]

The variant are not bogus - they are what they are.
They are either fast or slow or neutral.
Why is this concept to shard for you to grasp?

First you posted in the wrong thread. Second you make statements as if you know something without defending your point of view. Third if my proposition in the other thread is wrong, you would be able to mathematically refute it because I laid the formula out in front of God and everyone including you. So drink your morning coffee, get your head on straight, and refute with proof in the proper thread. I just don't have the time to reply to anymore of your name calling/accusing statements like you made about. And from here on out, I will just ignore these because you have done it enough to show that you are not acting out of good faith or to help the racing discussions along.

[Tom]

Sorry about the wrong thread - but you have made statements that need proving, not me.

There is always a variant.
Feel free to waste your time on fantasy.

[Capper Al]

Sorry about the wrong thread - but you have made statements that need proving, not me.

There is always a variant.
Feel free to waste your time on fantasy.

Now you are lying.

[Robert Goren]

I deA lightly raced horse late in its three year old year is a bad bet. IMO. Why hasn't it raced more? Is it wrong to assume that the horse needed something that the barn had to work out? Given if the horse is re-enter at or below its previous class from a good barn with a few workouts in-between, I'll consider the horse and have been successful with them. I don't and I won't. You can if you want. That is why the run the races!

[Capper Al]

I de I don't and I won't. You can if you want. That is why the run the races!

I agree. That how we take each other's money giving up 20% to the take out each race.