Turf Paradise Wednesday Dec 19

[The Spaniard]

Race 1: (1)JAMES IRISH EYES shows a very solid workout foundation for a good first start sire and trainer, should be flying late.

1st ($3.80)

[johnhannibalsmith]

Race 1: (1)JAMES IRISH EYES shows a very solid workout foundation for a good first start sire and trainer, should be flying late.

Aloha!

I'm interested in watching this one. I loved the dam, Nosy Nessa. Jim Hill trained filly probably looks lousy on a printout of her accomplishments - pretty sure that she only won a single race - but her career was cut short to only about a dozen starts. In that time, I think she ran second about half the time and hit the board just about every trip - and this was in tough conditioned allowances, often in optional allowances against super legit old hard knockers running for the $20k or $30k tag.

The downside for me is the worktab. Not that I don't like the works per se, but just the nature of them. A trillion five-eighths, some three-quarters - at Turf Paradise this is often known as "beating them on fitness if you can't beat them on talent"... laf... But Chambers isn't generally in any big hurry with his short supply of firsters compared to most other barns.

This is such an awful race for the level that he almost seems to have to win by default.

Freaky should make the pace again with Sassy Poppy, who I thought probably was mostl likely to run third since this will probably be a "no passing allowed" type maiden race - but I'm a bit curious that Stevens ends up on the other Baze starter after riding them both in their respective debuts.

For grits and shins - I'll pop off a theoretical straight trifecta - :1: - :6: - :7: - hope it returns $13 for a buck :D

[The Spaniard]

won by default, indeed.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Wow, the 1-6 exacta actually returned $10 there. That was a pretty astounding payout. I would have figured about half that for that tandem.

[The Spaniard]

Race 2: favorite (5)BUTTON EM UP speed figures tell that here she's the best horse by far, usually she needs two o three races after the layoff but she's already fit.

NP

[johnhannibalsmith]

These early races sure look like a possible procession of chalk, and race two is certainly hard to get past :5: Button Em Up. She ran some absolutely great races in defeat last season against way better mares before finally moving down to a level at which she could win and was scooped up. She doesn't seem to be quite as sharp as she was last season, but this is a pretty soft spot compared to the two she has been in so far, neither one of which she actually ran poorly in at all.

I've chased the gray filly Double Zado to no avail throughout the meet, often cursing the non-aggressive rides on her by Jake and wishing I had Vicki Baze back in the irons. Well, now I get Vicki, but I'm not a big fan of this filly as a sprinter and frankly, I've just about given up on her at this point.

So, my alternative to use with or perhaps against the favorite is :3: Hurry Home Honey, currently 10-1. Ran awful last time, but that was a strange race in that not only did she break pretty slow, but the top four finishers if I remember correctly just ran around the track in merry-go-round fashion. This filly's first two trips here weren't great, but she did face some decent mares when fourth behind Straight Western - who was DQ'd for a minor medication violation and has since come back to win the condition again in her next start - and fourth also in a common race in which the favorite finished second. In this smaller field without a bevy of early speed, she may just be able to get herself in a much better early spot than she has been and avoid all the chaos if she is in fact a bit of a timid filly.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I think the fillies that I liked the least there ran 1-2-3. :D

Rainbow Weaver outrunning a few of those mares? Oy.

[The Spaniard]

Race 3: favorite (6)Time Machine looks to me souspicious... 7 races stopping badly. (4)JIMMI THE JET showed new good speed last time and he's got some back class. His trainer record is scary, but here we are in the bottom of the well...

3rd ($5.50)

[duncan04]

r3- :3: Forest Souvenir Ran a good second first time at Turf Paradise. Hoping second time is a charm. Second time with trainer a 25% hit rate and jockey/trainer combo hits at a 34% rate.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Race three is something of a mess for me to try to sort out.

First off - you have Time Machine at even money. Was favored in a non-three allowance and got drubbed his first trip, but the winner came back and won again, so no need to be too nervous. But then, he drops in for $10k N3L, and it was an AWFUL bunch for the level and he is basically eased up at the eighth pole and finishes last. Now he drops all the way to the bottom and we get a, ahem, "more brave" jock in Jen Reid for this plummet. No way I can take this one at any price even if in all reality he is the talent.

:3: Forest Souvenir is ultra logical and the most likely alternative in all likelihood, but really, at 8-5, a bad price considering he looked like a cinch in his local debut and was never any threat when running second. Certainly the type that you would want on tickets, but not sure he's a great play at the price.

I have to say, if forced to make win bets in this one, I might look at :1: Wild Wings, who is at 8-1. While thus far closers haven't exactly been making much impact, those races are hard to gauge any possible return to a bias. It sure looks as though there are three, maybe even four in here, that would prefer to duel on the pace, so a good trip and a fair track would figure to leave this one as the late threat.

At 20-1, :5: Thisonesforhard has been a bit of a disappointment at the meet, but I sort of suspect there's just something about the horse that didn't jive with his original pilot. He started out facing much better here at the meet and didn't run terribly, but not quite up to expectations either. Now he's had a couple and is moving down each time - he's either on the permanent decline - or he's about to find a combination of rider, level, style, and race flow that is going to snap him back to where he was before he arrived at TuP.

[duncan04]

r3- :3: Forest Souvenir Ran a good second first time at Turf Paradise. Hoping second time is a charm. Second time with trainer a 25% hit rate and jockey/trainer combo hits at a 34% rate.


Easy winner, winning by 9 lengths $6.00

[The Spaniard]

good 10-1 exacta

mine (nº 4) to complete the 50-1 trifecta

[duncan04]

r4- :5: Notis Sal Ran a good second off a layoff. Could get this second time back. shortens up a furlong and should set off pace and pounce. Just like my pick in race 3 this horse racing at Turf Paradise for second time.

SCRATCHED

[The Spaniard]

Race 4: (8)GONE DIGITAL last race is outstanding for a mile ran like an sprint (22.3 > 45.3 > 1.11...) with two workouts after the race I don't fear a bounce. This is a dirt colt who may have turn the corner lately. Interresting longshot cutting back in trip.

win/show

NP

[johnhannibalsmith]

There's not much to like for me in the fourth. Looks like a bunch of either cheapies that won't run on the bottom today or worn out once-upon-a-time pseudo-allowance types that waited a little too long to make it down to this level. Just to make it more of a mess, just about everyone in the field seems to prefer to be on a cozy lead, but none are actually super-fast, so there's almost no tellin what this pace is going to look like.

With Our Magic Couple, who won two very cheap races on those cozy leads at 6-5, I guess I'd have to opt for :8: Gone Digital. Never been one of my favorites, but at least as an occasional route horse and having drawn outside, there's a chance he may actually get to choose what kind of trip he wants and have some finish if the others start to walk after engaging one another.

[johnhannibalsmith]

DOH!

Koricancha, who I've selected over and over in the other thread actual steps up comes from downtown with Jorge Hector Aldrete Alderete to get there... wow... what a stellar field!

[The Spaniard]

Race 5: Lightly raced and late bloomer (7)LA PINOT is the quickest right now, well placed outside the other speed and she knows how to rate and pass horses.

[johnhannibalsmith]

This may be one of the more bizarre collection to head up a stakes here. Gracias, who was scratched in the post parade in a bottom claimer two back, then nearly equalled the track record a week or so later in a starter (over a wicked bias) jumps up for this. La Pinot has been running fairly cheap allowance mares off of their feet. Paige Springs has been buzzsawing to the front and gasping across the wire first as usual. Chambers has another rapid mare in here, but she got dusted in a turf stakes earlier in the meet...

Geez Louise - a collection of rapid fast fillies that do their best running on the pace. I have no strong opinion, but hey, at least :3: True Way of Grace actually has back class and wants a fast pace to run at. Off form and traditional dirt record is a bit of a mishmash when trying to apply it to this race, but considering everyone is somewhere between 2-1 and 4-1 - she seems at least playable at 5-2.

[The Spaniard]

I think TRUE WAY doesn't like too quick a pace, didn't like it in Santa Anita 4 NOV 11...

[u2popmart]

just sat down and started looking at a couple races. sure enough long shots ruling again unbelievable. turf and the last race in tampa. unreal. yet someone has the exacta and trifecta ticket. :eek:

[u2popmart]

oh yeah and the superfecta for 10,000. unreal

[johnhannibalsmith]

I think TRUE WAY doesn't like too quick a pace, didn't like it in Santa Anita 4 NOV 11...

I probably phrased it slightly differently than I actually meant - more like - of the five in the field, a super fast pace is likely to do her the least amount of harm... laf... she showed a few races where she was at least willing to settle and roll through the lane when asked...

She ran pretty well to roll on for second - basically the entire field just collapsed at the three-sixteenths and the two that were second last and last inherited the top two spots. E Z Kitty got a perfect trip and was willing to let the others go on with it to the quarter pole... don't think that was the greatest stakes race ever assembled. :D

[duncan04]

r6- :7: Snowbound Marquita Taking the outside speed here. Won last out and drops in class. Trainer hits at 38% when dropping off win. Trainer/jockey combo hitting at 31% according to my BRIS pp's. Looks dangerous.

[The Spaniard]

Race 6: favorite (7)Snowbound Marquita always bounces after a Beyer in the 70s... If we throw out (2)MAJAKAT fiasco in the mud three races back, and we forgive her last race trying to close with a big speed bias in front we have a style versatile mare running good races with Beyers high enough to win this today. Interesting outsider.

win/show

2nd ($7.80 - 4.00)

need yours for exactas

]I skip race 7, dinner time (here 22.25 pm)[/COLOR]

[johnhannibalsmith]

Another race that is just tough to find something to like at the right price.

With Snowbound Marquita at even money, I have to look elsewhere. She's legit, and appears to be dropping, but I think it's more of a simple drop in price than in company. This is arguably a tougher spot if a few key rivals run their races. Even more confounding is the action on the eight, Vying Ty Grr, who can run, but one of her classmates from up at Hastings is in here - :3: Annadu - and even though I'm not a student of Hastings, when I look at the charts of both from the meet up there over the summer, I see more similarities in their ability than I do differences.

Other than Annadu, I'm a little suspicious that :1: Indy Beauty isn't in here for a money run. She was claimed for much more at Pomona, showed up first trip here in an 1x allowance and dumped the rider at the break. I'm not convinced that this is a move to unload her, but I'd sort of expect to see a bunch of early action on her in this spot if they were stealing and she's been up over 5-1 since forever. The owner is fairly game and likes to win and Billy Brashears isn't exactly having the kind of meet that he likes to have. He's enjoyed a career of winning and without a lot of spots to run a mare like this, after that mess last time, I wouldn't be shocked if she's here to try to thieve a win, slip by the box, and get eligible for $6250 starters.

[johnhannibalsmith]

The money now pouring on Indy Beauty, went from 5-1 to 2-1 as I typed that.

[u2popmart]

turf race 6 - 3 and 6 for place . just for grins no other reason.

[duncan04]

r6- :7: Snowbound Marquita Taking the outside speed here. Won last out and drops in class. Trainer hits at 38% when dropping off win. Trainer/jockey combo hitting at 31% according to my BRIS pp's. Looks dangerous.

finished third

[u2popmart]

good call on the 2.

[duncan04]

r7- :7: Tricky Linda Horse just missed last out by head in her first start over the Turf Paradise track. That was also her first start since 6/20/2010!! Should be more fit second off layoff.

[johnhannibalsmith]

...- :3: Annadu - ...

Hope to get a decent price on her again next time. Better than it looked race there. Love to see her find a condition if they'd drop in price.

[u2popmart]

since the layoff took a big drop? what about the :6: it has taken a big drop? anyone have any thoughts on the 6 horse.

[u2popmart]

the 4 horse is a shipper from gg. was entered into a 30000 claim race then scratched. who knows. strange.

[johnhannibalsmith]

since the layoff took a big drop? what about the :6: it has taken a big drop? anyone have any thoughts on the 6 horse.

I sort of like her here. The same connections owned her for the debut run at Pomona in Mullins barn and she did take some money, but I assume that was probably as much because it was a bad field and the trainer angle there. The local works are pokey and I kind of wonder if it wasn't a different rider working her, one that rides another one in here and tends to work them slow. So while the works may not be an issue, the fact that that rider ends up on a different one may be - but all of that may just be WAY too much reading into subtleties. The common agent may have just made an executive decision that allowed to him to ride as many as possible in the field.

I guess you have to play :8: She Can Roar in some capacity in a field of this just out of respect for Super Miguel in a spot like this. The one he ran over the top of Linda with last time had even worse form than this one.

There's so much chaos in the race with horses coming from NorCal and whatnot, I can't even guess what the flow of this one is going to look like. As a mild stab for a part at a price, I at least know that :2: Copy Irish will run her race, bad as it is, she usually gets involved and just wilts through the lane - and she will be reunited with Aki the Jockey - not that it means much...chuckle. If a bunch of these bad maidens from elsewhere don't show much and the favorite bounces off the big effort, who knows, maybe she ends up hanging on for part just by default.

[u2popmart]

i'll pass on this race.

[duncan04]

r7- :7: Tricky Linda Horse just missed last out by head in her first start over the Turf Paradise track. That was also her first start since 6/20/2010!! Should be more fit second off layoff.


finished second

[johnhannibalsmith]

i'll pass on this race.

Probably the wisest move available. :D

[u2popmart]

where is spaniad? come on join the party.

[duncan04]

r8- :5: Smokin Badge Taking this horse here, third off of layoff which trainer hits at 23%. Shortens up to 6.5 furlongs from a mile. Ran a competitive 4th in only start at distance. Switches to better jockey.

betting win/place

[duncan04]

where is spaniad? come on join the party.


He skipped the 7th race for dinner

[The Spaniard]

I am back

Race 8: (1)SAPONETTA was well bet in her debut (2.60) and just ran around the track "not urged late" says the chart commentary. Today blinkers on (Kruijack high ROI with this 22% winning move). She's unexposed. A logical pick.

[u2popmart]

im going with the :6: for a $2 place and show. gaining in the end also was in the eleven post last time . this is a long shot.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I am back

Race 8: (1)SAPONETTA was well bet in her debut (2.60) and just ran around the track "not urged late" says the chart commentary. Today blinkers on (Kruijack high ROI with this 22% winning move). She's unexposed. A logical pick.

In this absolutely dreadful field, this looks like the play to me as well. Stevens rides first call for both Eric Kruljac and Bart Hone, two of his biggest supporters, and generally has input on tough choices, so he can't absolutely hate this one as you might think off of the debut.

The only other one that I can remotely get interested in is :7: Rock Hard Bunny. At 10-1, this is obviously the first time that she's been in anything resembling the right race as she drops from MSW/OCL level where she was getting trounced. She ran past a few in her second start, but in all reality, the ones that she ran past are no better than those that she should run past in here as well.

Just a horrendous field in general, but at least you are getting some decent prices on a couple that still have a hint of upside. This race probably best used a spread leg in a multi-race pick bet where you just root the longest price of your six live runners home. :D

[u2popmart]

good call duncan

[johnhannibalsmith]

r8- :5: Smokin Badge Taking this horse here, third off of layoff which trainer hits at 23%. Shortens up to 6.5 furlongs from a mile. Ran a competitive 4th in only start at distance. Switches to better jockey.

betting win/place

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Bingo!

[The Spaniard]

and the winner is..... DUNCAN!!!!!

[u2popmart]

i miss the pedigree Silver Deputy.

[duncan04]

r8- :5: Smokin Badge Taking this horse here, third off of layoff which trainer hits at 23%. Shortens up to 6.5 furlongs from a mile. Ran a competitive 4th in only start at distance. Switches to better jockey.

betting win/place

Winner at 4-1. pd $10.00 $4.60

[The Spaniard]

I move to Penn National, business it's not working for me today in Paradise :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown:

[Zydeco]

r8- :5: Smokin Badge Taking this horse here, third off of layoff which trainer hits at 23%. Shortens up to 6.5 furlongs from a mile. Ran a competitive 4th in only start at distance. Switches to better jockey.

betting win/place

Good call!

[duncan04]

r8- :4: Whos Calling Now This horse is tough to go against in this spot. Just missed last out and is tough at the mile distance on the dirt. Going to play to win here

:1: Ourprettysalleyjo Think this horse is also one to consider. Last 4 races at distance finished second or third. The last three of those missed by 3 lengths or less. Gets Jake Barton aboard and if not forced 4 or 7 wide like in last three races should be right there


:4: to win
:1: :4: exacta box

[u2popmart]

the :10: ml odds was 5.
won last time out. anyone have an opinion on the 10?
other than that is had to go against :4:

[Maximillion]

:4: Whos caling now certainly looks legit and tough here but Im gonna take a stab with :9: Canadia.

Exits the same race as the favorite...was a little wide 1st turn and actually looked dangerous turning for home at 40-1 but faded in the stretch.No real excuses, but I think shes taking baby steps improving and may have more upside than many in here.
Just hoping :4: regresses a bit after that tough race and long campaign....I actually think :9: can beat the rest of these.
:4: :9: exacta box.

[u2popmart]

playing a 1 quinella :4: :9: / :9: :10: .

the ten is taking late money

[johnhannibalsmith]

Boy, these races today just are a chore to even plow through... laf...

3-5 on Who's Calling Now is just crazy talk.

4-1 on :1: Ourprettysallyjoe isn't fantastic, but it's about six times better. Good old mare that can ebb and flow, only hang-up is that she just doesn't seem to have that winning spirit these days, but at least she's been sort of heading into good form. I don't love the rider/horse combo and wish they'd make a change there.

:6: Shemya Reef is at least 99-1 as I type this... laf... she should be about 30-1, I concede, but nobody in here should be 99-1 or anything close to that. Especially considering that she is a hard tryer with early speed that just can't run a whole lot. I don't think I'd build some kind of ticket that needed her by any stretch of the imagination, but I honestly could use her as a kicker or even kick off a trivial little win wager... just in case she makes the lead early and gets in the Christmas spirit.

[u2popmart]

that race didnt make sense 46 for 4 furlongs. was setup for a closer.

[u2popmart]

these were 3k claimers. you would think the jockey would pace the 4

[u2popmart]

im going with :7: :10: 1 ex box

[johnhannibalsmith]

The last is probably the most interesting race on the card and I have no idea what to do with it.

I suppose the winning move is just to swallow the short price on Truckin, who once again figures to get a good set-up and has already handled many of the top rivals in here.

I'm a little interested in the :5: Diamond Touch, who has the look of a horse that is probably just getting a race in this spot. Spotted in a sprint that he probably won't be claimed out of, his charts seem to suggest that routing is what he wants to do. But hey, there's a lot of gas in this spot and if they are going into this one with the intent of just laying back and making a little run and trying to get something out of it - that strategy may actually be exactly what it would take for this sort of out-of-context entrant to get a sniff at 20-1.

I also wouldn't be surprised if :3: Mobius returns with his very best. Downside for him is that even if he runs his guts out here and tries to shock the tote, he's probably going to be under a lot of pressure throughout. Ordinarily I'd probably just throw everything out the window and assume that today was destined to be his day to zap, but he does appear to have a lot of outside pressure to contend with.

You know as I'm about to hit submit, Truckin is now 2-1. That's a pretty fair price considering Lewkacy is also 2-1 and I'd need about 6-1 to even consider that one.

[u2popmart]

this track is fast. i cant believe the times some of these claimers are running.

[u2popmart]

good call on the 1 and 3

[johnhannibalsmith]

Even though it's actually Friday, I hate creating a new thread and this one is convenient.

In this 870 dash here in the second, :2: With Love Too has been flirting around 8-1 for a while. She ran a lot better last time then she did the first time considering she did break a half slow, but got shut down trying to make the whole into the turn.

I'm not entirely convinced she's back to 100%, but at 5-1 or north of that, she's probably worth the risk.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Poor away again, got jammed in neutral and still tried to run up the fence until stopping 100 out. Ran an okay 4th, missing photo for 3rd, all things considered, but this slow start, trouble in the turn seems to have become an every race occurence.

[The Spaniard]

Race 3: (8)Bam Zoom shows no workouts after his excellent debut at this level (1 month ago). (4)MAGIC JUAN ran 3 races in 3 weeks, perhaps without time to recover from his good debut at the nickel level. He closed strongly 7 wide. Now with 4 weeks rest may return to that good form.

place/show NP

[The Spaniard]

Race 4: (8)BEER FRIDAY's got back class and had excuse last time in his second start at this level.

NP

[The Spaniard]

Race 5: (5)PRINCESS KIHA races on turf were excellent and looks like a better filly on the green. With two sprints under the belt she should run a good race with nice odds. (4)ANNE'S SEVEN CATS has turf in her pedrigree and is exacta shorlist.

win/place
exacta box

[Maximillion]

race 6
:4: me salty--nice wide move mid-race in last. This group looks easier and I like his chances here.