Turf Paradise Tuesday Dec 18

[The Spaniard]

Race 1: (7)Tewobmania speed figures tower over this field, but there are no workouts at all in 6 weeks and this is worrisome. (5)CLICKEN FOR GOLD looked good closing like a bullet in her debut, she's got a busy work tab and is an alternative.

1st ($11.00 - 3.80 - 2.40)

[The Spaniard]

Race 2: (2)Double Chocolate has done nothing wrong, and shows good Beyers (35 > 65) but is bred for dirt and looks quite slow. (5)AGENT SCULLY is bred top and bottom for turf and for routes, she's got nice tactical speed, and her sire Johannesburgh ran great over yielding courses in Ireland and Belmont Park.

[The Spaniard]

3rd ($3.40)

[The Spaniard]

Race 3: (2)MR PLEASANTREE work tab shows speedy drills (47.3) and a nice long one (1.01). This well bred but very cheap colt could be good enough to beat this poor field.

1st ($8.00)

[johnhannibalsmith]

Race 3: (2)MR PLEASANTREE work tab shows speedy drills (47.3) and a nice long one (1.01). This well bred but very cheap colt could be good enough to beat this poor field.

Nice pickin' :ThmbUp:

[The Spaniard]

Race 4: The track looks deeper than last week after the heavy downpours. Lets take a closer like (3)TAXI RIDE, lightly raced and with lots of back class, may have found a home in Paradise.

1st ($6.20)

[johnhannibalsmith]

For what it's worth, I made a rare trip out to an OTB to try to play a filly in the 4th. She's in the wrong spot - should be in a N1y/4L instead of this N2y, but I thought I might get some big numbers on Britta in the multi-race wagers. Went far too deep in the pick threes and got the more logical outcomes and blew out of the pick 4 because I didn't want to go deep in the first. Ah well, I had a feeling Britta might take action in the win pool - she just plummeted from 14-1 to 9-2 between 6MTP and 4MTP, so I don't feel too badly. But, she'll probably bounce back up to around 8-1 in the next three minutes and I guess I shoulda just been hitting the win pool after seeing my will pays.

[The Spaniard]

John... we both were right... as a team!

[johnhannibalsmith]

Well, the Taxi Ride - Britta exacta pays almost $70 and the filly returns $9.20 and $8.60 to place and show... I was most definitely in the wrong pools there, but having to bet two and a half hours before the race and an hour before first post makes it a little tough on a guy to find that sweet spot... especially after three days of cancellations due to track conditions after a week of insane speed bias.

[johnhannibalsmith]

John... we both were right... as a team!

Yep, I went heavy on your pick the last time she ran and sweated it out the whole race. Really just was fortunate to get a dream inside run while Bridges on the runner up came waaaay wide and ran out of horse. If I hadn't had a somewhat negative opinion of that race and felt lucky to connect that day, I probably just tangle our two picks together in exactas and all the rest of the junk. :)

[The Spaniard]

Race 5: (1)HANGER THIRTYEIGHT made a bold move and tired last time. He's improved a lot after that race (36.2). Today, without speed bias looks dangerous.

1 win / 2 show

NP

[johnhannibalsmith]

Race 5: (1)HANGER THIRTYEIGHT made a bold move and tired last time. He's improved a lot after that race (36.2). Today, without speed bias looks dangerous.

1 win / 2 show

Agree completely. That was a bad race he was in last time, but a re-run of that race and style from the rail puts him in the hunt here. Obvious favorite Mr. Instigator has the PERFECT profile for a winner of the 1-2-3 condition with one start over the track that was a decent, but disappointing fourth. Was unsettled in the turn and awkward throughout, but he's fairly legit. Looking for a big effort from Strum Bum in this condition as well.

[The Spaniard]

I don't know what happened with (1)HANGER...

you were right about the winner!

[johnhannibalsmith]

I don't know what happened with (1)HANGER...

I tried to watch the replay to see if he blew an iron when the horse outside dropped in on him and that didn't seem to happen. Thought maybe that he lost the inside rein or maybe the bridle broke the way he was traveling through the turn, but couldn't see anything there either. I'll find out - he didn't appear to be vanned off and jock didn't fight to get him pulled up, so guessing it had to be something equipment related or maybe a rock or shoe that came up and caught the rider going into the turn. Weird.

Sans that one, the rest of the race ran about right. Wish I bet that one instead. :D

[duncan04]

r6- :8: Dog Rock. Gets better jockey. Third off layoff and hoping he can set off pace and make move in stretch. 18% jock/trainer combo in last 60 days.

[The Spaniard]

Race 6: (4)Suckster is very quick, but today he may hit a wall turning for home. But his speed could put a red carpet for closer/even runner (10)REXBURG, who shows the best last two Beyers of the field, a certificate of his good form and wellbeing.

1 win / 2 place

2nd ($6.20 - 3.40)

[johnhannibalsmith]

r6- :8: Dog Rock. Gets better jockey. ...

Oddly... :) ... even though I hate this race, I'm leaning towards :4: Shuckster, in part because Vergara is there instead of on Dog Rock. I'm not convinced that it was Vergara's choice per se considering LaVanway rides Carreno, but looking at the work two back, it may have been. Vergara tends to be reasonably selective -and in my humble opinion, is every bit as good as Carreno, and even better if he's on one that fits his preferred style. Unfortunately, this one (Shuckster) looks like a pop and stopper, way fast early and then gasping and this isn't a barn that I would expect him to ride for often and not one that I would exactly expect to have one off a layoff ready to last.

Even though :7: Wanderaboutyou exits a pretty weak race, the winner was legit and had everything his own way at the front. Should be more pace for Wanderaboutyou to run at here and should only run a little better with now two trips here and a bit more acclimation. :1: Molto is way to big of a price at 20-1 in my opinion. Davey Lopez is back and it's not like this one has been running poorly - just not quite well enough to win. It wouldn't be any sort of miracle for him to inherit a good placing if one or more of these pseudo-counterfeit favorites doesn't fire.

Frankly, this one isn't a race I think I could get too excited about playing... weird group of underachievers and the tote board is a bit surprising in a few places.

[johnhannibalsmith]

...(10)REXBURG...

I kinda hope you're right. Bridges has a hard time with him and can't seem to get him to leave well, but Clel Frazier REALLLLLLLLLLLLY needs a win soon. ;)

[The Spaniard]

We could became milllionaires... as a team... $150 exacta

[johnhannibalsmith]

We could became milllionaires... as a team... $150 exacta

I gotta' admit, I couldn't believe the price on Molto just kept going up and the price on Shuckster was dropping. I figured them about even on the board around 8-1 or 10-1... was shocked Molto paid $70+ bananas.

On the plus side, Shuckster walked out of the gate last and made his entire run down the backside before hitting the wall at the three-eighths and the rider just coasted him in. Might be a nice bet-back there down the line if they are wise enough to come back with another breeze and try to tighten him down for an actual money run.

[duncan04]

r6- :8: Dog Rock. Gets better jockey. Third off layoff and hoping he can set off pace and make move in stretch. 18% jock/trainer combo in last 60 days.


Never was a factor. Was last early on and never recovered

[duncan04]

r7- :2: Pivotal Queen. Love this horse in this spot. Was knocking on door last two races. Drop in class should get job done!
Playing to win

Also think :8: has an outside chance. Gets back on turf and could be a factor.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Step right up and take even money on Pivotal Queen in the seventh... or how about 10-1 on :8: Blue Moon High?

I'm posting at 6MTP, but I can't imagine why you would take the price on the former rather than that of the latter. They've squared off in the past and Blue Moon High outfinished Pivotal Queen and while you can say that 'Blue' was in better form then, I have two replies: 1) So was Pivotal Queen. 2)Blue Moon High really hasn't run a bad race yet this meet. She was trying hard in defeat in two main track sprints off the layoff before moving to a route on turf and Annie Von got her jammed up a bit near the temp fence before getting somewhere to run, just as she did in the most recent on dirt at a crucial moment. I can't say that Juan G. has been a superstar at working out brilliant trips lately, especially on turf, but this mare arguably deserves to be no more than 7-2 if Pivotal Queen is still hanging tough at 6-5.

[The Spaniard]

Race 7: (9)QUEST FOR JOY's got upside potential on turf with a high percentage trainer (50 > 60 > 65). There is speed and his turn of foot is teh best here.

1 win/ 2 place

[duncan04]

r7- :2: Pivotal Queen. Love this horse in this spot. Was knocking on door last two races. Drop in class should get job done!
Playing to win

Also think :8: has an outside chance. Gets back on turf and could be a factor.

#2 ran second. Got run down by the #1 Tuscan Moon And then DQ to 4th

[The Spaniard]

For me the problem with BLUE MOON are these races on dirt. She can't settle as a turf runner. To be a dirt horse and a turf horse... very difficult.

I was lucky QUEST FOR JOY inherited the place

2nd (5.20- 3.80

[Maximillion]

I like the :4: Astarforbrush in race 8.... took a while to get going last year and seems to be at least going in the right direction.Much easier spot for him here.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I wish that Pivotal Queen ran every day of the week.

I have no idea what Juan's plan was on Blue Moon High. It's not like he hasn't ridden some huge races on her in the past over this turf course. This was arguably the easiest of her handful of turf races here and he rode her like he has been riding almost everything lately, in a coma. Oh well, when in doubt and you know you can stand against Pivotal Queen at 3-5, I guess its just silly not to use Super Miguel when he has an entrant.

The eighth is a bit of a craphoot and I'm not liking the price at the moment, but really, :4: Astarforbush finally goes for the money run at the meet. Jockey Joe's scared to death to run him where he needs to be for fear of getting him claimed, so he's been in two goofy spots with him and now, he makes that third off the layoff drop into the right condition. Helping the cause, the track has been closed for training for a few days now, so Joe couldn't have tried too hard to be a trainer. :D

:3: Class Five Rapid hasn't really gotten going at the meet and he's maybe feeling the ravages of the career at this point, but he's a pretty neat old horse, and if everything comes together for him mentally and physically - with Rocky Ice and a few other speedsters here, if the rider is bellied down on this old jalopy, he's got a shot. :7: Tony The Pony is almost identical to that one in every which way, but 6-1 requires quite the leap of faith to play as a winner - double digits would make me more interested in taking the risk. I surely wouldn't drop him from exotic type tickets, though.

[The Spaniard]

Race 8: (2)STONEWALL RIOT is perfect for today's the track profile and shows the best Beyers with ragularity. (10)Accept the Kiss (28 > 44 > 51 > 51 > 59) could complete the exacta.

2nd ($4.20 - 2.60)

another exacta team!!!!

[duncan04]

r8- #2 Stonewall Riot A repeat of last race may get it done here. Has finished second at distance 4 times, hoping to get lucky here. right now 5-1 with 4 minutes till post.

Win place on #2

[johnhannibalsmith]

Dang, I think I've bet (or selected) Stonewall Riot every time he's run since I cashed nicely on him last meet and I've finally fallen off his bandwagon after feeling utterly disappointed in a couple spots where I thought he couldn't possibly lose again.

In other words, he's a cinch today. :D

[johnhannibalsmith]

Congratulations to Jockey Joe!

First win as a trainer!

[duncan04]

r8- #2 Stonewall Riot A repeat of last race may get it done here. Has finished second at distance 4 times, hoping to get lucky here. right now 5-1 with 4 minutes till post.

Win place on #2


ran second $4.20

[duncan04]

r9- :3: Call Me Jones. Looking for back to back wins at Turf Paradise. Won last time out in N1X Alw company. Has good work on 12/13. Should be ready to win again.

[The Spaniard]

Race 9: (3)CALL ME JONES is unexposed on dirt, with just 4 runs and fine Beyers

50 > 64 > 77 > 82

He's style versatile, can lead, can stalk, can close. Managed by a good trainer, second of layoff, he may run big today.

yeah, he ran big today!!!

1st ($7.00)

[Maximillion]

Im gonna give the :6: Rainier ice the benefit of the doubt in the 9th.

Not crazy about the odds atm ... but I think that last group was too much for him.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Great race here in the eighth - bunch of neat horses, some sharp, some not-so-sharp, but all can run.

I'm dismayed that :8: Danzip is vying for favoritism off of the 8-1 M/L. I mean, yes, he is back in Chambers' barn, but His Holiness isn't having the kind of meet that he's accustomed to and the blind trail of money into the pool every time he runs one.

Considering how badly Danzip started off the ARP meet... and the fact that he really only ran one good race when they finally whittled the allowance competition for him down to a group of glorified $2000 claimers... I figured he's be a fair price, if not quite the 8-1 M/L.

Knowing how bad his foot was all last year and how well it held together at TuP for the most part before coming unraveled within days of hitting ARP - and the fact that Chambers wouldn't run him until he was damn near as close to 100% as he could get him last year - I have to figure he has him back to close to as good as he gets. And he is one FAST SOB when he's right - and a trying prick on top of it. Run past him to beat him.

The other horse that actually intrigues me is one that was a pretty nice 3yo. here in the past :7: Memo To Mya. Don't let those Portland and Boise races be the only thing that discourages you, he was beating up on the good ones at Boise - Joes Cannon, Holy Buckets - stars of the circuit. And his races here in the past, second to the excellent Forest Mouse a few years back - good races, albeit against three-year-olds. At 15-1 I kinda give him a shot on the return trip here.

Rainier Ice is taking a lot of money after a good EMD meet and one excellent race here the first time - but has really run poorly in my opinion in his two starts since then - and I'd need a lot of reassuring to take him at just about any price in here.

[duncan04]

r9- :3: Call Me Jones. Looking for back to back wins at Turf Paradise. Won last time out in N1X Alw company. Has good work on 12/13. Should be ready to win again.


Easy winner $7.00

[johnhannibalsmith]

I'm going out on a limb to guess that Danzip starts diving in claiming price. That got a little ugly to watch through the lane.

Hey, was that Juan G. out of his coma on the winner?? :D

[Maximillion]

Race 9: (3)CALL ME JONES is unexposed on dirt, with just 4 runs and fine Beyers

50 > 64 > 77 > 82

He's style versatile, can lead, can stalk, can close. Managed by a good trainer, second of layoff, he may run big today.

Impressive.....makes you wonder why prior connections kept running him on turf and aw. Looks like a nice claim.

[duncan04]

r10- :4: Sis Draper Ran stong second two back against the boys at Assiniboia Downs. If can return to that will be tough to beat getting back to own sex and stretching out to 6f. Also dropping in class. Tough if ready to return off layoff. Trainer is 18% with move

4 to win

[The Spaniard]

Maxi, USA thorougbred racing is suffering of surface chaos. Everywhere, A-Tracks B-Tracks everybody runs his horses on poly/dirt/turf. This horse was and evident dirt horse. Many trianers don't understand something so simple as Higher Beyers on dirt therefore he's a dirt horse... better for smart gamblers...

[Maximillion]

What about :1: Sunshine High in the 10th?
Im thinking she might benefit from the start over the track...trainer seems to
think so too as he's bringing her back quickly.Price should be a lot better this time.

Also like the :3: fun again...but currently taking money and may need to get clear to win.Another play if the odds drift up.

[The Spaniard]

race 10: Lightly raced (11)LAREINADELABAHIA is improving and should fight it after an stalking trip.

NP

It's been fun, I move to my main track now

[johnhannibalsmith]

The old 1-2-3 condition rears its dirty ugly head again in the finale and it's a motley crew, but there are a couple that fit the ideal profile of a minimal amount of starts to become eligible, while placing high, but not losing eligibility. The ideal profile - one or two starts, a couple of fourth place finishes in open company, then the drop in this spot.

Nobody fits it to perfection, but you get a real good price at the moment (8-1) on :2: Stormetta, who ran just once in a Nw1y and finished fourth. The two that finished in front of her, Anne's Seven Cats and Lucky High are noteworthy. The former has simply been red hot all meet and the latter hasn't been, but has always been a solid mid-level claimer here the last few years. I rate that as a pretty salty bottom conditioned claimer to be exiting and now hitting the skids here.

:4: Sis Draper is a weird read in here. This is the money run - she was claimed last time for $5,000 out of a fairly weak effort and now plunges to the lowest level allowable by law in this $3000 non-123. If it isn't the money run, it's a desperation move to hope she gets claimed, pray she can fire a big one and make it home first, get out just about even on the claim and wash your hands. Tough call to make as she sits at 5-2.

There are a few other logical plays, but they are awful prices. My wacky "from downtown for a piece" play here is :9: Ourcocobeans. This poor filly never seems to be in a good spot - of course, she's just not very good anymore - but AA/Mangui just refuse to run her in sensible spots about 66% of the time. This isn't too bad of a spot and she's 25-1. Her very, very, very best, some luck for her, some bad luck for a few others, and she's got a fighting chance. Of course if you can;t win this condition you WANT to run fourth or worse and save it - so don't get too excited about those exotics. ;)

[The Spaniard]

you got you coco whale man!!!

[johnhannibalsmith]

...so don't get too excited about those exotics. ;)

:9: Ourcocobeans

:2: Stormetta

:4: Sis Draper




:lol: :lol: :lol: :bang: :bang: :bang:

$2 9-2 exacta: $918.80

$2 2-9 Quinella: $227.80

$1 9-2-4 tri: $9,044.60

****ing ARIZONA and our stupid ADW law!!!!!!!! :lol: :lol: :lol:

[Maximillion]

Great race here in the eighth - bunch of neat horses, some sharp, some not-so-sharp, but all can run.



Rainier Ice is taking a lot of money after a good EMD meet and one excellent race here the first time - but has really run poorly in my opinion in his two starts since then - and I'd need a lot of reassuring to take him at just about any price in here.

Spot on.....I was blinded by the fractions in his last race.

[Maximillion]

The old 1-2-3 condition rears its dirty ugly head again in the finale and it's a motley crew, but there are a couple that fit the ideal profile of a minimal amount of starts to become eligible, while placing high, but not losing eligibility. The ideal profile - one or two starts, a couple of fourth place finishes in open company, then the drop in this spot.

Nobody fits it to perfection, but you get a real good price at the moment (8-1) on :2: Stormetta, who ran just once in a Nw1y and finished fourth. The two that finished in front of her, Anne's Seven Cats and Lucky High are noteworthy. The former has simply been red hot all meet and the latter hasn't been, but has always been a solid mid-level claimer here the last few years. I rate that as a pretty salty bottom conditioned claimer to be exiting and now hitting the skids here.

:4: Sis Draper is a weird read in here. This is the money run - she was claimed last time for $5,000 out of a fairly weak effort and now plunges to the lowest level allowable by law in this $3000 non-123. If it isn't the money run, it's a desperation move to hope she gets claimed, pray she can fire a big one and make it home first, get out just about even on the claim and wash your hands. Tough call to make as she sits at 5-2.

There are a few other logical plays, but they are awful prices. My wacky "from downtown for a piece" play here is :9: Ourcocobeans. This poor filly never seems to be in a good spot - of course, she's just not very good anymore - but AA/Mangui just refuse to run her in sensible spots about 66% of the time. This isn't too bad of a spot and she's 25-1. Her very, very, very best, some luck for her, some bad luck for a few others, and she's got a fighting chance. Of course if you can;t win this condition you WANT to run fourth or worse and save it - so don't get too excited about those exotics. ;)

Outstanding JHS!!

[The Spaniard]

one of the toughest trifectas in thoroughbred racing history... and I was there!!!!

[jdhanover]

The old 1-2-3 condition rears its dirty ugly head again in the finale and it's a motley crew, but there are a couple that fit the ideal profile of a minimal amount of starts to become eligible, while placing high, but not losing eligibility. The ideal profile - one or two starts, a couple of fourth place finishes in open company, then the drop in this spot.

Nobody fits it to perfection, but you get a real good price at the moment (8-1) on :2: Stormetta, who ran just once in a Nw1y and finished fourth. The two that finished in front of her, Anne's Seven Cats and Lucky High are noteworthy. The former has simply been red hot all meet and the latter hasn't been, but has always been a solid mid-level claimer here the last few years. I rate that as a pretty salty bottom conditioned claimer to be exiting and now hitting the skids here.

:4: Sis Draper is a weird read in here. This is the money run - she was claimed last time for $5,000 out of a fairly weak effort and now plunges to the lowest level allowable by law in this $3000 non-123. If it isn't the money run, it's a desperation move to hope she gets claimed, pray she can fire a big one and make it home first, get out just about even on the claim and wash your hands. Tough call to make as she sits at 5-2.

There are a few other logical plays, but they are awful prices. My wacky "from downtown for a piece" play here is :9: Ourcocobeans. This poor filly never seems to be in a good spot - of course, she's just not very good anymore - but AA/Mangui just refuse to run her in sensible spots about 66% of the time. This isn't too bad of a spot and she's 25-1. Her very, very, very best, some luck for her, some bad luck for a few others, and she's got a fighting chance. Of course if you can;t win this condition you WANT to run fourth or worse and save it - so don't get too excited about those exotics. ;)

Wow! Well done. Have enjoyed reading the analyses all day.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I don't know what happened with (1)HANGER...

...

For what its worth, he was coming unraveled. Apparently he's a bit of an iron-jawed, heavy headed, lock on the bit type and just wouldn't pull up. Tried to get him to the outside so he'd pull himself up and he wanted to stay in. Just had to keep him picked up until he eased up on his own. The worst type for a jock.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I'm going out on a limb to guess that Danzip starts diving in claiming price...

Can't claim points for accuracy as he's making just a mile descent from allowance optional $20k claiming level to straight $16k claimers. A dip, but not a plunge and a dare. The race scratches from seven horses, six betting interests to five and four interests. They range from 4-5 on the :2: to 7-2 on the :1: entry at 8MTP. Danzip has been banging from 2-1 to 5-2 for the most part. Drawn outside in this small field that should still force him to motor early, the 2-1 range may be a pretty fair price of those offered if he just runs his last race back or improves just a bit with a hard one over the track.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Good old horse. Made a comfy lead and fought off repeated challenges to win by a nose over the only one that had yet to run at him until the sixteenth. Like two of the other three entries in the race, Danzip went off at 9-5, not a terrible bad price at all the way the race figured to run after all the scratching.