Calculating the percentage of expected winners

[formula_2002]

Calculating the percentage of expected winners.


Some people use 1/(odds+1).
This will give them the minimum % winners you need to break even.
Example; 3-1 odds, yields a min of 25% winners

Some people use (1/(odds+1)) x (1-(track out+ an allowance of 1% for breakage))
This will give tem the minimum % winners they should expect without any handicapping
Example; 3-1 odds, yields a min of 21% winners at a track with 15% take out.

Finally, for the purpose of analyzing a system, the expected number of winners (in the test sample) is calculated by summing the total number of actual winners and dividing that by the number of horses. The system winners are then compared to that.

Here is what average odds of 3-1 (>=2.5.AND.<=3.4) did at some of the tracks.
To indicate the volatility in all of this stuff, look at FGX. It’s take out is 17%, but it returned a dollar loss of 13%, while AQU’s 15% take out returned a dollar loss of 20%.
KEE even returned a profit.


TRACK horses wins WNET win % % $ loss
SAX 1314 274 -246.1 21% -19%
GPX 992 202 -190.1 20% -19%
LAD 789 167 -139.3 21% -18%
PHA 662 136 -127.5 21% -19%
FGX 649 143 -87.2 22% -13%
GGX 566 115 -117.3 20% -21%
HOL 540 119 -75.8 22% -14%
DMR 516 119 -46.4 23% -9%
AQU 486 99 -95.35 20% -20%
CDX 420 94 -53.7 22% -13%
FLX 391 89 -39 23% -10%
BEL 375 82 -50.45 22% -13%
ELP 372 82 -55.1 22% -15%
DEL 360 76 -66.1 21% -18%
CRC 340 70 -66 21% -19%
TPX 264 51 -64 19% -24%
MTH 242 53 -35.9 22% -15%
KEE 235 64 13.7 27% 6%
SAR 165 39 -11.25 24% -7%

[Cratos]

formula_2002:

Your analysis at first glance gives the appearance of substance, but with further review it is just a global statistics analysis looking at random wagering with given odds. That in my opinion is not the way to play this game.

From the betting side of the ledger there are four parameters to take into consideration:

(1) Attitude – make sure that you are mentally and emotionally ready to bet.

(2) Affordability – make sure that you can afford the wager that you want to make.

(3) Patience – wait for your betting opportunity that was found through your handicapping and don’t listen to touts and friends.

(4) Discipline – if you win or lose stay with you betting plan because it will be your handicapping coupled with your betting plan that will make you a consistency winner in the long term.

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by Cratos
formula_2002:

Your analysis at first glance gives the appearance of substance, but with further review it is just a global statistics analysis looking at random wagering with given odds.

You got it right when you reviewed it further. And in that review lies the substance


Originally posted by Cratos
formula_2002:

That in my opinion is not the way to play this game.



right again. It's a way to begin to understand the game.

[Cratos]

formula_2002:

“right again. It's a way to begin to understand the game.” is a catchy retort, but it doesn’t get the bettor any closer to the winner’s circle.

Being an engineer with a MBA in Econometrics, I have seen and played with more mathematical and statistical models than I care to remember concerning racing.

I am not saying that statistically your data is wrong, but I am saying again that there isn’t any substance or there is minimal substance in your analysis when it comes to betting the races.

However betting the races is done through pari-mutuel wagering, therefore bettors will typically use many and different methods to support their bets for winning, but in the end only a few will succeed and I wish you good luck

[cj]

Formula only uses databased PPs to come up with his percentages. There is no way to beat the take with only that info, as he correctly states. Throw in some additional info not available to most bettors, and its a different story.

[GameTheory]

Cratos --

Many before you have been telling formula_2002 the same thing for years now; but he seems to think he's on the right path, even though he admits he can't make any money...

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by Cratos
formula_2002:

Being an engineer with a MBA in Econometrics....


Well you should have an appreciation of the several dozen papers published in the book "Efficiency of Race Track Betting Markets", and perhaps what I consider the definitive system analysis presented in his book "Horse Sense".

I simply attempt to walk in the shadows of these giants.
Perhaps you could refer me to some of your work that applies to horse racing analysis. I'd be glad to read it.

Joe M