NFL perceptions

[Valuist]

Somehow, the Saints are still considered a "quality" team. The line on the game yesterday? NYG minus 4. Allowing 3 for home field, does LV really only consider the Giants only 1 point better? Probably not, as I have heard they shade the lines as the Saints are such a public team and the NFL is the only sport where square money is so big, it can move lines. The Saints are NOT a good team, or even average team. Terrible defense, weak special teams, and a Hall of Fame QB who is having a bad season.

Does anyone believe the Colts 9-4 record is remotely indicative of their ability? They may be the only team in NFL history that's 9-4 and been outscored by more than 35 points on the season. They've had an amazingly easy schedule, helped by their last place finish last year, two terrible teams in their division, and an AFC which is decidedly below the NFC. Somehow, the Colts have avoided Houston thru 14 weeks. And they get the Texans at home in week 17; Houston probably will have the number 1 seed sewed up, and the Colts could face a bunch of 2nd and 3rd teamers. The real question will be next season, where expectations will be big but they go from a last place schedule to a 2nd place schedule. The D is still bad, can't run the ball, and while Luck has looked good at times, he turns the ball over way too much.

I think many, myself included, felt the Falcons were fraudulent at 11-1 going into yesterday's game. This IS a good team, but not a great team. Their D is based largely on forcing turnovers and don't stop the run very good. That's a problem come playoff time.

Another perception may be Cleveland is one of the worst teams. I would disagree with that. This is a young team in a tough division. They've lost only one game by more than 10 points. They play hard every week and their defense has been very strong, giving up only 109 points in their last 7 games.

Total parity? Maybe not so much. NFC is taking it to the AFC in head to head matchups, winning 32 out of the 54 games.

[Marshall Bennett]

Browns and Rams both are much improved. People are used to them playing like shit because they have so much in recent years.
I believe overall the league is more balanced than in the past. Any team is vulnerable to almost anyone else. Imo, the Super Bowl is up for grabs this year. May just be a matter of who gets hot.

[Valuist]

If I had to pick conference championship games, I see a repeat of last year in the NFC. IMO, SF and the Giants are the two top teams. And I can see tonight's game as a rematch in January but in Houston. I like New England tonight, but if they meet again in Houston, I expect the tables to get turned.

[OTM Al]

Imo, the Super Bowl is up for grabs this year. May just be a matter of who gets hot.

Ever since realignment, this seems to be the case. Stark contrast to the preceding ten years.

[hugh]

I think you are spot on when it comes to the Saints. This week in particular was a bonanza for against the public plays... Carolina anyone?
I think you can cash in against the Saints this week when they play the Bucs. Tampa is the better team and you are getting 3 points. 75% of the public are on the favorite.
Other early looks for next week ATP style include:
Atlanta -1 (at home)
St Louis -3 (at home)
Eagles +3 (at home)
3 out of every 4 bettors taking the other side in these matchups
Looks like the beginning and the END of the season are most profitable for these against the grain type plays.
:ThmbUp:

[Tom]

You see, living in Bills territory, I never have to worry about things like this.
Quality...playoffs, winning.....you know, stuff the Bills avoid! :rolleyes:
But, what we do get to see is the Buffalo DPW putting up the safety nets underneath the Peace Bridge, to catch those die-hard fans who jump off it this time every year! :lol:

[rastajenk]

Is the Allstate Good Hands logo on those too?

[Robert Goren]

You know the 49's made the change at QB with the superbowl in mind. The Texans have winning on autopilot for some time now. How good are they if they can crank it up again. The Pats are a good test tonight. The loser tonight wins in the playoffs and goes to the superbowl.;)

[MaTH716]

Somehow, the Saints are still considered a "quality" team. The line on the game yesterday? NYG minus 4. Allowing 3 for home field, does LV really only consider the Giants only 1 point better? Probably not, as I have heard they shade the lines as the Saints are such a public team and the NFL is the only sport where square money is so big, it can move lines. The Saints are NOT a good team, or even average team. Terrible defense, weak special teams, and a Hall of Fame QB who is having a bad season.



I think many, myself included, felt the Falcons were fraudulent at 11-1 going into yesterday's game. This IS a good team, but not a great team. Their D is based largely on forcing turnovers and don't stop the run very good. That's a problem come playoff time.


I think yesterdays game against the Giants is a bad example. First off they have had the Giants number the last few years (it's been ugly for the G-Men). On paper it also looks like a bad matchup for the Giants with all the weapons that the Saints have going up against a defense that gives up a ton of big plays. I also fall in the camp of not being able to comprehend that Drew Brees is stinking up the joint at times this season. You would think that people got the message after yesterday. They looked like a bad team who had nothing to play for.

I agree with you 100% on the Falcons. They just feel like a fraud. I always equate Matt Ryan to being the NFC version of Joe Flacco, just underachivers when they get to the playoffs. Although Flacco did play well and deserved better against the Pats last year. Despite their records, I would much rather play the Falcons (as a Giants fan) then teams like the Packers and 49ers. I guess we'll see who's made of what this week when they go against each other.

[Robert Fischer]

Somehow, the Saints are still considered a "quality" team. The line on the game yesterday? NYG minus 4. Allowing 3 for home field, does LV really only consider the Giants only 1 point better? Probably not, as I have heard they shade the lines as the Saints are such a public team and the NFL is the only sport where square money is so big, it can move lines. The Saints are NOT a good team, or even average team. Terrible defense, weak special teams, and a Hall of Fame QB who is having a bad season.

Does anyone believe the Colts 9-4 record is remotely indicative of their ability? They may be the only team in NFL history that's 9-4 and been outscored by more than 35 points on the season. They've had an amazingly easy schedule, helped by their last place finish last year, two terrible teams in their division, and an AFC which is decidedly below the NFC. Somehow, the Colts have avoided Houston thru 14 weeks. And they get the Texans at home in week 17; Houston probably will have the number 1 seed sewed up, and the Colts could face a bunch of 2nd and 3rd teamers. The real question will be next season, where expectations will be big but they go from a last place schedule to a 2nd place schedule. The D is still bad, can't run the ball, and while Luck has looked good at times, he turns the ball over way too much.

I think many, myself included, felt the Falcons were fraudulent at 11-1 going into yesterday's game. This IS a good team, but not a great team. Their D is based largely on forcing turnovers and don't stop the run very good. That's a problem come playoff time.

Another perception may be Cleveland is one of the worst teams. I would disagree with that. This is a young team in a tough division. They've lost only one game by more than 10 points. They play hard every week and their defense has been very strong, giving up only 109 points in their last 7 games.

Total parity? Maybe not so much. NFC is taking it to the AFC in head to head matchups, winning 32 out of the 54 games.

good writeup

agree w/ much of it. There is occasionally square money in the NFL, and there's also the fact that much of the public perception is media driven. Fans tend to think of players and teams in terms of the story-line, rather than the game film.

Haven't seen enough of the Colts to make an accurate statement on them.
From afar, their won-loss record seems phony. They seem like a team that should be around 8-8 , 9-7 for an entire season. Luck is very popular. Not sure if this will play out into a great bet before the end of the year or not.

[Valuist]

How about this: yesterday five rookie QBs started and got wins: RG3, Luck, Wilson, Brendan Weedan and Nick Foles. It has been 40 years since that happened.

[cj]

How about this: yesterday five rookie QBs started and got wins: RG3, Luck, Wilson, Brendan Weedan and Nick Foles. It has been 40 years since that happened.

And one that didn't start got a win, too.

[proximity]

The real question will be next season, where expectations will be big but they go from a last place schedule to a 2nd place schedule. The D is still bad, can't run the ball, and while Luck has looked good at times, he turns the ball over way too much.


i agree that our team has a lot of holes, but so far the last place schedule has only given us cleveland.... who you go on to say isn't really that bad of a team. of course later it will give us kc. we are also 3-1 vs the superior nfc.

idk if next season's schedule will really be any more difficult with games vs the afc west and nfc west, including seattle at home. 2nd place status would currently give us the jets at home and pittsburgh on the road. hopefully though we take the broom to houston and get that first place schedule!! :jump:

[Valuist]

i agree that our team has a lot of holes, but so far the last place schedule has only given us cleveland.... who you go on to say isn't really that bad of a team. of course later it will give us kc. we are also 3-1 vs the superior nfc.

idk if next season's schedule will really be any more difficult with games vs the afc west and nfc west, including seattle at home. 2nd place status would currently give us the jets at home and pittsburgh on the road. hopefully though we take the broom to houston and get that first place schedule!! :jump:

Taking the broom to Houston :lol:

[Marshall Bennett]

Texans looked horrible, as if they didn't care. Looked that way against Green bay earlier this year at home. Hopefully they'll recover, that was nasty last night.

[MaTH716]

Texans looked horrible, as if they didn't care. Looked that way against Green bay earlier this year at home. Hopefully they'll recover, that was nasty last night.

I think that the interception Schaub threw in the endzone on their second drive, was the ballgame in a nutshell. They were down 7 and on the way to tying it up. Instead of a tie game, the Pats marched right down the field and made it 14-0.
They never recovered from that.

[Valuist]

Houston seems like a front running horse. Runs big speed figures on or near the lead, but completely incapable of coming from behind.

[RaceBookJoe]

Not sure if Houston or Atlanta is the bigger fraud? Patriots are like a machine year in/year out . Still hoping the Broncos win the AFC since my brother-in-law is their Oline coach...and as a Redskins fan, its kind of nice to play a meaningful game in december again :)

[cj]

Houston seems like a front running horse. Runs big speed figures on or near the lead, but completely incapable of coming from behind.

...or stepping up in class.

[Bettowin]

...or stepping up in class.

Stepping up in class is sure an issue for Houston. Especially when they are facing a classier opponent with a much better trainer and jockey:)

[Valuist]

...or stepping up in class.

More like a bad setup. I said before the game; 4th road game in 5 weeks, 2 of those games were OT. They figured to be drained, and they played like it.

In terms of "quality" wins, Houston has beaten Denver (in Denv), Baltimore, and at Chicago. That compares favorably with a team like Denver, who have made a living beating up on the AFC West. IMO, their only quality win was opening week over the Steelers.

[cj]

More like a bad setup. I said before the game; 4th road game in 5 weeks, 2 of those games were OT. They figured to be drained, and they played like it.

In terms of "quality" wins, Houston has beaten Denver (in Denv), Baltimore, and at Chicago. That compares favorably with a team like Denver, who have made a living beating up on the AFC West. IMO, their only quality win was opening week over the Steelers.

I only count Baltimore who was playing well at the time. Denver was very early and the Bears aren't much.

I'll be surprised if one of the following don't win it all: NE, NYG, GB, and SF.

[Valuist]

I only count Baltimore who was playing well at the time. Denver was very early and the Bears aren't much.

I'll be surprised if one of the following don't win it all: NE, NYG, GB, and SF.

The Bears were 7-1 when Houston played them in Chicago. And while I believe Denver's record is inflated due to their schedule, they are easily a top 10 team, no question. Playing in the AFC South helps, no doubt with two bad teams in there.

[Valuist]

Here's a consensus of several professional bettor's NFL power ratings:

http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/9/p/430494/1695353.aspx

[proximity]

i wouldn't count denver out and will be interested to see if new england can run for 250 yards against them in a rematch. i don't have the stats on median run defense, but denver is like 6th in average and throwing out that one bad performance could move them up to maybe 2nd behind tampa bay???

[Valuist]

I think there's an overreaction to what happened Monday night. All of a sudden Houston is a total fraud? New England is a touchdown better than anybody else? I don't believe either one.

Monday night games always get magnified. New England may be the best team, but is it by a large margin? I don't think so. I do believe they are better than last year. If anything, they were a bit fraudulent last year; no regular season wins over teams over .500. An extremely lucky win vs Baltimore in the AFC title game. Their D last year was a trouble spot. Their pass D still isn't good but its not horrible.

It was a terrible setup for Houston, and we've seen when things don't go their way, they mail it in (i.e. the GB game). I don't believe it was an accurate reflection of the Texans. I also think Jim Harbaugh loves this. The Niners are waiting; they still aren't respected as much as they should be. His team will show up next Sunday night vs the Patriots. The line is teetering between 5.5 and 6. At 6, San Fran is a must play.

[Robert Fischer]

pretty much

there's a tendency to over-react to each week's recent games ... NYG beat GB ... NE beat HOU ...

there were teams like Atlanta being ranked #1 early because of combination of factors that made them look better than they are

at this point we know the top teams in some order are probably GB, NYG, NE, SF, DEN, HOU.

Den could be over-rated because of Manning. San Fran and Hou lack the elite QB that the other 4 have.
However all 6 of these teams have great days of near unbeatable football, as well as days where they aren't more than a top 15 team.

[hugh]

I'm on the NINERS BIG on sunday night.
flying out to Vegas that day and heading straight to the betting windows.
Only 28 freaking % on San Fran... getting six points and they can win outright. People don't realize that the niners only need an average QB. they have solid weapons at WR and Gore and company running the ball.
Big game and big play for me.
Line may go to a touchdown by game time.

[MaTH716]

I'm on the NINERS BIG on sunday night.
flying out to Vegas that day and heading straight to the betting windows.
Only 28 freaking % on San Fran... getting six points and they can win outright. People don't realize that the niners only need an average QB. they have solid weapons at WR and Gore and company running the ball.
Big game and big play for me.
Line may go to a touchdown by game time.

Really?
On offense, I view them as a one dimensional team (running). For me the jury is still out on Kaepernick and I guess he could change that dynamic. Obviously they have an excellent defense which should get tested this weekend.
I really have no feel on the game, I'm just hoping it's better than this past weeks highly anticipated matchup.

[Robert Fischer]

I'm on the NINERS BIG on sunday night.
flying out to Vegas that day and heading straight to the betting windows.

I view this as a game that could go either way. The spread looks large enough that it could be in the 49ers' favor over a longterm strategy.

NE has the ability to dictate the 49ers' offensive style.
By overplaying the short pass/run game Belicheck and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia know that by over-playing they can take away the from the flow of the 49ers' well-executed scripted style offense.
The 49ers may have to successfully beat NE deep, as well as lean more heavily on a conservative approach incorporating Kaepernick and the read-option into the gameplan.

The San Francisco defense is good enough that they will force Brady to execute, but I don't see them completely stopping all hope of a NE offense.

[Valuist]

I'm on the NINERS BIG on sunday night.
flying out to Vegas that day and heading straight to the betting windows.
Only 28 freaking % on San Fran... getting six points and they can win outright. People don't realize that the niners only need an average QB. they have solid weapons at WR and Gore and company running the ball.
Big game and big play for me.
Line may go to a touchdown by game time.

I agree with you. For whatever reason, the public doesn't gravitate to the Niners like they do NE. Probably because defense is their strength. I also agree their offensive weapons are more than sufficient with that defense.

[Valuist]

ESPN headline this morning: "Titans end Jets playoff hopes"

First off, there may have been some extremely small mathematical possibility of the Jets getting into the playoffs, before Monday's game. But anyone who has watched the Jets at all knows that THE Jets, not the Titans, ended their own playoff hopes, many games ago.

[Marshall Bennett]

They would be near the bottom of my list. They're currently horrible. Most list you see, however, have them around 2/3 the way down. Perhaps this is because they were considered above average with hopes before the season began. I Often wonder why teams that crash & burn during a season aren't given the truly shitty recognition they deserve. Some are still having problems understanding the Eagles stink and aren't nearly what they were suppose to be.

[Valuist]

But for next year, it would not be inconceivable for them to have a positive turnaround.

Would they eat the $17 million to get rid of Sanchez? He clearly isn't the answer. 33 turnovers committed (KC and Philly have 34 each) is way too many. A healthy Revis' return will help, but pass defense has been a rare area of strength (2nd in pass yards allowed, 5th in QB efficiency rating against). They need to shore up the D-line which is 29th against the run. They also need to address the WR position, which is obviously hurting the QB play. Keller and Chamberlain are solid at TE. They still have to contend with NE twice a year but the AFC is down now. Pitt and Baltimore have defenses that are getting old. The West is terrible and the South is weak. They address a couple positions and they could still contend for a wildcard berth in 2013.

[Robert Fischer]

Simply replacing Sanchez and playing conservative gives them a decent chance at a wild card.
Upgrades = even better.

The only way the Jets can fail to improve is to fail to bring in a starting QB again.

[Stillriledup]

Simply replacing Sanchez and playing conservative gives them a decent chance at a wild card.
Upgrades = even better.

The only way the Jets can fail to improve is to fail to bring in a starting QB again.

What about the idea of cleaning house and getting rid of the entire coaching staff, getting rid of Tebow and keeping Sanchez?

[rastajenk]

If I were a Jets fan, I'd be very disappointed if that happened. Fortunately, I'm not. :p

[Marshall Bennett]

Yeah, or an Eagles fan. What a season meltdown. I had picked them and the Pats to go to the Super Bowl, and there were many others that did, too.
Cowboys fans should be pissed as well. Although they haven't been eliminated, they're garbage as well as for as I'm concerned.
I really like the Texan's chances. I think they'll be fired up and ready come playoff time. It's been a while since fans in Houston had anything as far as football to get excited over.