an interesting tale

[overthehill]

This is a true tale that I find curious. I handicapped a first timer who was listed at 5-1. I keyed him with several horse in an earlier race which was won by a non-contender . The double was paying $190. as the the opening odds flash up, the horse sits at 5-1, an older gentleman who is a frequent but small bettor comes up and says that he spoke to the horses barn that morning and that the barn loves the horse, that the horse outworked a horse they just paid $300,000 for. and he is is alive with it in the DD for a buck. Now i am somewhat skeptical because the horse was not heavily bet in the double, not heavily bet on the board and is running for a claiming price first out.
with about 5 minutes to go the horse drifts up to 6-1 then ubruptly down to 4-1, then drifts back up to 5-1. The race goes off and the horse takes the lead at the start and wires the field holding off one well bet challenger who in turn finishes many lengths ahead of the field. So now the question remains was the older guy putting me on or what? Does it make sense that a barn who has a horse who is working so well would put him for a price first time and not pound him either in the doubles or the win pool? I would be more skeptical but i do remember once getting a tip on a first time starter in new york ridden by angel cordero , the horse was 6-1 in morning line went off at 15-1 and won by 5 lengths.

[wisconsin]

Nice hit. But the old guy had inside info and had a whole dollar riding?

[jorcus99]

This is a true tale that I find curious. I handicapped a first timer who was listed at 5-1. I keyed him with several horse in an earlier race which was won by a non-contender . The double was paying $190. as the the opening odds flash up, the horse sits at 5-1, an older gentleman who is a frequent but small bettor comes up and says that he spoke to the horses barn that morning and that the barn loves the horse, that the horse outworked a horse they just paid $300,000 for. and he is is alive with it in the DD for a buck. Now i am somewhat skeptical because the horse was not heavily bet in the double, not heavily bet on the board and is running for a claiming price first out.
with about 5 minutes to go the horse drifts up to 6-1 then ubruptly down to 4-1, then drifts back up to 5-1. The race goes off and the horse takes the lead at the start and wires the field holding off one well bet challenger who in turn finishes many lengths ahead of the field. So now the question remains was the older guy putting me on or what? Does it make sense that a barn who has a horse who is working so well would put him for a price first time and not pound him either in the doubles or the win pool? I would be more skeptical but i do remember once getting a tip on a first time starter in new york ridden by angel cordero , the horse was 6-1 in morning line went off at 15-1 and won by 5 lengths.

What were the odds on the well bet challenger? Just because they liked him does not always mean they think he is a lock. The fact that he held his morning line as a FTS could be a good sign but you have to take it in the context of what is going on around him. Some barns and owners are not big bettors. Some smart barns are good at hiding bets.

[therussmeister]

the horse outworked a horse they just paid $300,000 for.
Maybe after paying $300,000 for a slow horse, they didn't have any money left to bet. ;)

[Robert Fischer]

Maybe after paying $300,000 for a slow horse, they didn't have any money left to bet. ;)
:D:lol:
good one russ


also, some barns / owners don't bet

[Greyfox]

and he is is alive with it in the DD for a buck. .

My O.T.B. doesn't allow $1 daily doubles.

This "whale" must have been splitting the bet with another one. :D

[Robert Goren]

Nice hit. But the old guy had inside info and had a whole dollar riding?Maybe thats the reason the guy had inside info.

[MightBeSosa]

Even more perverse than the results of races is the betting on races.

See horses that should get bet, not take a dime and jog, see them get bet for small fortunes and they're still running.

Almost a daily event. Sometimes they're happy with $200 to win.

[overthehill]

what i understand even less are the hundreds of thousands of dollars paid for horses who have never competed in a race. I wonder if anyone tallied up the cost of all $100,000 plus horses purchased at the sales, and then followed them for purses, auction sales and stud fees to see what the total profit loss was for any given year.

I have seen too many horses that cost over $100,000 who have struggled to win allowance race. Stall had a horse at churchill or keeneland that cost over $200,000 that he entered first time out for i think $20,000. the horse did win.

[forced89]

Does it make sense that a barn who has a horse who is working so well would put him for a price first time and not pound him either in the doubles or the win pool?

Yes, it does make sense. I just did it. I bought a yearling for less than $2k; he was working great going into his first start; I ran him in Mdn Clm; he won easy and I didn't bet anything on him.

Why? First, I never bet on my own horses unless the odds are way out of whack. In this case horse was 5/2. Second, he's a nice horse who will win races but IMO will never be a stakes horse. Thus I want him to face the easiest competition possible and win races until I sell him via claim.