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View Full Version : Robo Picks for 12/2 and price falloffs


Ray2000
12-02-2012, 09:25 AM
Robot picks for Win and 3 box exactas this Sunday

Balmoral R5....10,1,3 ...Miss Bella-6/1
Dover R8........8,5,3 ...Motley Fool-5/1
Flamboro R11....8,9,6 ...Calgary Seelster-15/1
Fraser R10......5,1,7 ...Gotta Have Nukes-6/1
Chester R1......5,8,1 ...Raging Grin-6/1
Saratoga R4.....5,6,2 ...Rockavellian-8/1

GLA


Disturbing trend

Average Mutuel payoffs for Trifectas declining faster than Exactas or Wins over the past 4 years.

Looking at 2500-3000 races per month shows

Trifectas off 12.2 percent from Jan 2009....$522 down to 458
Exactas off... 3.8 percent .................$79.90 to 76.82
Win Pays off...2.2 percent .................$11.95 to 11.68

I guess the crowd's getting sharper or more sharks are swimming to the Tri pool.

melman
12-02-2012, 11:31 AM
One word
Ray
REBATE

I think the Meadows still has a take out rate of 35 percent. Two huge players that I know love betting tri's at the Meadows. They are not paying anywhere near that 35 rate. The larger the take out rate the higher the rebate.

melman
12-02-2012, 01:56 PM
Nice hit on R4 at Saratoga Ray. Got 7-1 on the winner. Winner a family affair. All owner, trainer, and driver. Tuff trip on the 5 in R1 at Chester. Goes on my watch list.

Ray2000
12-02-2012, 02:15 PM
thx

I've been working on that Exacta Watch spreadsheet, (getting the right base amount for the harness tracks) and it was telling me all exactas with the 5 (top or bottom) were a GO except 5-1, 1-5... :bang:


so I missed the Exacta but got the win. :)

baconswitchfarm
12-02-2012, 07:05 PM
I would love to know what the total average tri pool decline was during this period. I bet it is down 12 % . When the public leaves the pools, it leaves the sharp guys to chop up less and less handle . This leads to lower payoffs.

The rebates in the tri pools are the largest and lead the bigger bettors to those pools as well.

Ray2000
12-03-2012, 05:28 AM
Nice night for raw picks....74 bet ~166 back

Balmoral R5....10,1,3 ...Miss Bella-6/1...................OTB
Dover R8........8,5,3 ....Motley Fool-5/1................Winner $6.60
Flamboro R11....8,9,6 ..Calgary Seelster-15/1........8 Scr 6-9 Exacta $120.30
Fraser R10......5,1,7 ....Gotta Have Nukes-6/1.......Showed Exacta $24.20
Chester R1......5,8,1 ...Raging Grin-6/1.................Showed
Saratoga R4.....5,6,2 ...Rockavellian-8/1...............Winner $16.60


baconswitchfarm

I'd love to see those numbers on trifecta handles but getting pool information is a real pain.
You guys are right about the influence of the big rebates.