Intra-day track bias changes

[bertyruss]

I am observing at a particular track that at the end of the day the outside posts are doing better than their general stats would indicate. There are not, however, enough observations to make this observation statistically significant, so I am wary of drawing any conclusions. Is it possible that the inside track gets "softened" during the day, making outside trips stronger during the final races? Are there studies of this possible intraday phenomenon? Thx, Berty

[mlbelang]

Although I can't offer any real answers, I'm also interested to see what others think of this.

In some sense, I've always thought of track bias's as strictly weather induced. If they cull (rake? groom? I don't know the proper term for this) the track after each race, the variation between inside and outside within a matter of 6 or so races should be very insignificant. I could be wrong.

[Valuist]

When the temperature is around freezing but rises above freezing in the afternoon, we often see water rise to the surface at Hawthorne, and surfaces that start out as "good" can turn into wet-fast or even sloppy.

As for intra day biases, back before they put Polytrack in, Arlington would sometimes have days where the outside got better as the day went on.

[mlbelang]

When the temperature is around freezing but rises above freezing in the afternoon, we often see water rise to the surface at Hawthorne, and surfaces that start out as "good" can turn into wet-fast or even sloppy.

As for intra day biases, back before they put Polytrack in, Arlington would sometimes have days where the outside got better as the day went on.

Yes, what you describe is a weather induced, general change.

Do you have any experience with the rail becoming slower race 7 than race 1? Without a significant change in weather

[lamboguy]

WITHOUT a doubt, this has been taking place at the MOUNTAIN for the last 12 years that i have been following that place.

i take notes on every race run in that place, its the only track that i handicap and win at.

if you look at the MOUNTAINEER selection page on their website, you will see Nancy and Marks plays. i guarantee that they put a lot of weight on the bias of the prior race. they might have a better idea than most as to how the track is going to play for the first couple of races. i never play the first race there.

[mlbelang]

WITHOUT a doubt, this has been taking place at the MOUNTAIN for the last 12 years that i have been following that place.

i take notes on every race run in that place, its the only track that i handicap and win at.

if you look at the MOUNTAINEER selection page on their website, you will see Nancy and Marks plays. i guarantee that they put a lot of weight on the bias of the prior race. they might have a better idea than most as to how the track is going to play for the first couple of races. i never play the first race there.


I hate that track, nothing but bad luck for me!

I find it surprising, and slightly motivating, that you seem to have most of your success there? You're only success you mention?

I don't do too much with track bias other than the obvious so that could perhaps be my problem at the good ol Mountain Main.

By the way, never in my life have I seen a turf race run there. I know they do them, I have just never seen one. Weird.

[Valuist]

Yes, what you describe is a weather induced, general change.

Do you have any experience with the rail becoming slower race 7 than race 1? Without a significant change in weather

Yes, like I said in my sentence about the old, pre-Poly Arlington. I remember plenty of instances where the inside was awful the last few races of the day.

[Robert Goren]

major league tracks like NYRA get the tractors rolling at first sign of a real track bias. Generally they fix it pretty quickly. Some time they can't fix it though. The year MTB ran in the Belmont, there was huge inside bias and they couldn't do anything about it. Borel who normally hugs the rail took MTB to outside and got him beat. But still I had very good day because I spotted it early. About the only time I ever did well on a triple crown day. That said, real track bias are few and far between and even you spot one you can't always take advantage of it. If there a Strong Early speed bias and it well known, Horses that have shown early speed before in their life suddenly stop their settling in right behind the leaders style and suddenly are the fast out of the gate. I remember one time at MTR many years ago if a horse made any sort of move, it quit immediately. The winners were the horses who always ran at back all the way around. Boxcar payoffs with no way to pick them even though I knew what was happening.

[Robert Goren]

Should Read
Horses that have never shown early speed before in their life suddenly stop their settling in right behind the leaders style and suddenly are the fast out of the gate.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I am observing at a particular track that at the end of the day the outside posts are doing better than their general stats would indicate. ...

Perhaps this irrelevant to the track you are speaking of, or that it has been considered and discarded as obvious, but bear in mind: Many, if not most, tracks tend to card races in a "pyramid" fashion, with the smaller fields earlier in the card and the bigger fields later in the card depending on wagering menu and simo-audience. In other words, if you are curious solely on the basis of looking at the overall distribution of wins by post position and noticing that the outside posts seem to win later in the card - it may be a mere reflection of field size more than an actual bias.

[Robert Fischer]

the track itself and things like gate,rail, etc...
weather induced changes
Those are (off the top of my head?) the only two biases I am usually concerned with.

The quality of the horses and the way the race was run usually trumps most bias.
Path bias shifting throughout the day has not been any issue to me aside from the 2 types of bias I listed above.

[Greyfox]

the track itself and things like gate,rail, etc...
weather induced changes
.

Track maintenance ? The "tractor boys" can change a track.

[Robert Fischer]

Track maintenance ? The "tractor boys" can change a track.

Personally I believe it does happen. I don't see it well enough to use it, with the exception of obvious changes an off-track undergoes throughout the day.

[luisbe]

major league tracks like NYRA get the tractors rolling at first sign of a real track bias. Generally they fix it pretty quickly. Some time they can't fix it though. The year MTB ran in the Belmont, there was huge inside bias and they couldn't do anything about it. Borel who normally hugs the rail took MTB to outside and got him beat. But still I had very good day because I spotted it early. About the only time I ever did well on a triple crown day. That said, real track bias are few and far between and even you spot one you can't always take advantage of it. If there a Strong Early speed bias and it well known, Horses that have shown early speed before in their life suddenly stop their settling in right behind the leaders style and suddenly are the fast out of the gate. I remember one time at MTR many years ago if a horse made any sort of move, it quit immediately. The winners were the horses who always ran at back all the way around. Boxcar payoffs with no way to pick them even though I knew what was happening.

That's, at least, curious because Dunkirk raced up front on the inside and got passed by MNB but re-rallied on the inside to recoup 2nd while Summer Bird was the widest and won the race.

[mountainman]

WITHOUT a doubt, this has been taking place at the MOUNTAIN for the last 12 years that i have been following that place.

i take notes on every race run in that place, its the only track that i handicap and win at.

if you look at the MOUNTAINEER selection page on their website, you will see Nancy and Marks plays. i guarantee that they put a lot of weight on the bias of the prior race. they might have a better idea than most as to how the track is going to play for the first couple of races. i never play the first race there.

For anyone interested, but unable to distinguish our writing styles, nancy and i format our selections on mnr's website differently. I use the : (colon) right after the horse's name, whereas she she uses a simple - (dash).

[Ocala Mike]

This sounds far-fetched, and I'm a little vague on it, but I seem to remember reading years ago that tracks near the shore (Monmouth, Del Mar, etc.) could experience bias changes with the tides.

[Father Guy]

Surely not!!

[mlbelang]

For anyone interested, but unable to distinguish our writing styles, nancy and i format our selections on mnr's website differently. I use the : (colon) right after the horse's name, whereas she she uses a simple - (dash).

Mark, that you?


I really enjoy watching you guys, although I rarely score big at mountaineer, you and nancy are knowledgeable, usually entertaining.

[Ocala Mike]

Interesting article from a few years back, that mentions tides, albeit not seriously:

http://www.drf.com/news/unpredictable-bias-del-mar-mystery

[mountainman]

Mark, that you?


I really enjoy watching you guys, although I rarely score big at mountaineer, you and nancy are knowledgeable, usually entertaining.

yes. and tx for watching, sir.

[BombsAway Bob]

For anyone interested, but unable to distinguish our writing styles, nancy and i format our selections on mnr's website differently. I use the : (colon) right after the horse's name, whereas she she uses a simple - (dash).

Great Info! i've been trying to glean which one of you posted the selection based on the writing style,
but hate to say i wasn't very good at it!
PS- Love when you post a "Bet-Against" Post in RED from time2time.
Reminds me of a Kinder,Gentler Andy Serling "Dunce Cap" horse, which
may be the single funniest negative handicapping angle in existence!

[mountainman]

Great Info! i've been trying to glean which one of you posted the selection based on the writing style,
but hate to say i wasn't very good at it!
PS- Love when you post a "Bet-Against" Post in RED from time2time.
Reminds me of a Kinder,Gentler Andy Serling "Dunce Cap" horse, which
may be the single funniest negative handicapping angle in existence!


Since their inception 2 1/2 yrs ago, my website selections have shown a profit. I don't calculate my win % or roi (because, in truth, i don't keep track of the number of picks i post)-just a running tab of amount profited or lost on a day by day basis. The profit would probably be higher, except that management's initial request was that we post a significant number of selections, thus i do strive to post selections for every card, even if no particular horse completely strikes my fancy.

I don't keep track of nancy's selections, and she pays no heed to mine. We each do our on thing on the website. I blog, she does the bias notes (which she kindly took over last spring when i was ill), and we both do selections.

[Valuist]

Interesting article from a few years back, that mentions tides, albeit not seriously:

http://www.drf.com/news/unpredictable-bias-del-mar-mystery

I've heard the same thing about the Fair Grounds.