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Track Phantom
11-28-2012, 05:09 PM
Do you agree with this breakdown and the percentages?

Smart money - Knowledge about a horse that the public isn't privvy to. (Bleeding info, drugs, surgeries, etc)
Wise money - Top level handicappers/bettors using the same data we all share but analyzing it better than most.
Obvious money - Money bet along the morning line expectations. (Basic players with a form and a program that do surface level handicapping)
Dumb money - Money bet without any knowledge. (Horse color, childs birthdate, etc)
I'd guess that the percentages of the pool lay out like this:

Smart = 25%
Wise = 20%
Obvious = 45%
Dumb = 10%
My guess is 25 years ago, it looked like this:

Smart = 20%
Wise = 10%
Obvious = 45%
Dumb = 25%

rastajenk
11-28-2012, 05:51 PM
So dumb money became smart and wise?

If smart money knows which horse(s) not to bet on, does it lay off as wise, obvious, or dumb money?

I've never liked the term dumb money, very disrespectful. Baseball fans fluent in sabremetrics and all manner of fantasy stats don't call people that just like to go to games "dumb fans", do they?

thearmada
11-28-2012, 05:53 PM
Don't quote me on this, but I remember reading an article on US horse racing. I think it said something along the lines of a small pool of people (50 people or so) put the majority of money on the races on major racing days. Isn't their an ADW that is very selective and has only 10 or so members? I think the major money on the NYRA, California, KY, Gulfstream, etc. comes from major players. Not necessarily making huge wagers, but many smaller wagers.

I could be totally wrong here, but I think the majority of money comes from the smart and wise players. I would guess over 60% from them is usual on major circuits.

Robert Fischer
11-28-2012, 06:09 PM
Do you agree with this breakdown and the percentages?



Smart money - Knowledge about a horse that the public isn't privvy to. (Bleeding info, drugs, surgeries, etc)
Wise money - Top level handicappers/bettors using the same data we all share but analyzing it better than most.
Obvious money - Money bet along the morning line expectations. (Basic players with a form and a program that do surface level handicapping)
Dumb money - Money bet without any knowledge. (Horse color, childs birthdate, etc)
I'd guess that the percentages of the pool lay out like this:

Smart = 25%
Wise = 20%
Obvious = 45%
Dumb = 10%
My guess is 25 years ago, it looked like this:

Smart = 20%
Wise = 10%
Obvious = 45%
Dumb = 25%


The obvious money certainly drives the pool.

My best guess is that your estimates of "dumb money" are too high in both cases, and wayyy too high for 25 years ago.

I know those were the good old days, but no way 25% of the money was names, numbers and jockey silks.

the obvious money drives the pools.

I might also include "gambling money" as one of the types. In different races you will have money on the favorite or on longshots because of a gambling compulsion.

the favorite side of "gambling money" will at times overlap with the "obvious money".

"smart money" is going to vary. Some races will have strong positive or negative inside-info, others have none.

"wise money" will also vary. A lot of times nobody will be able to find an edge (in essence actual "wise money" play would be to pass the race) and there will be no wise money. When "wise money" plays, they will do so within the framework provided by the "obvious money".



for the overall percentages , don't know

Track Phantom
11-28-2012, 06:36 PM
The basis for this post is simply what I've observed over the years. It is hardly scientific and impossible to validate. Just an opinon.

If I were analyzing this, I might start by saying that the pools are divided (at the macro level) into three buckets:

Knowledge based (inside information not available to public)
Analysis based (expert handicappers that pour over data)
Compulsion/entertainment based (rest of the pool)
From there, you can get a bit more specific, if you liked. I would be curious to know what percentage of the money (not players) in any given pool fall into the above categories.

For the record, my money falls into categories 2 and 3. Obviously, I try to have a higher percentage of my money based on detailed analysis.

mountainman
11-28-2012, 09:16 PM
Like the thread. But I would add two closely related categories that may start out as subsets of factions you listed, but eventually take on a life of their own: Contrarian money (sent in by players who simply refuse to bet the chalk) and opportunistic money (wagered in response to some major tote trend or shift).

Arguably, "cinch money," a self-descriptive term for the big chunks more and more laid down by bigger bettors seeking to manipulate win pools at places like my home track, could constitute yet another category.

What I'm driving at is that times have changed, and as more and more serious players become more and more odds oriented-and gain a better grasp of how their pari-mutuel opponents think and operate-a wager itself becomes difficult to separate from the handicapping style or thought process that engendered it. The categories you laid out are well conceived and synergistic, but the modern day tote board is more like a chess match wherein move evokes counter-move.

thespaah
11-29-2012, 12:15 AM
So dumb money became smart and wise?

If smart money knows which horse(s) not to bet on, does it lay off as wise, obvious, or dumb money?

I've never liked the term dumb money, very disrespectful. Baseball fans fluent in sabremetrics and all manner of fantasy stats don't call people that just like to go to games "dumb fans", do they?
No..there is far less dumb money. Dumb money is bet by occasional and recreational bettors.
For example, 25 years ago a typical Saturday Aqueduct crowd this time of year would be 12 to 15K. In spring 15 to 18k.
At least half to 2/3rds were occasional or recreational bettors. The guys in the business of betting for a living were at the OTB parlors and teletheatres. Maybe a few hundred were in the Clubhouse.
The "dumb" money doesn't exist anymore because there are so few occasional and recreational bettors. And fewer new people being attracted to the game.
The only places where real dumb money shows up are at boutique meets such as Keeneland, Saratoga and on Weekends at Del Mar

Robert Goren
11-29-2012, 04:02 AM
No..there is far less dumb money. Dumb money is bet by occasional and recreational bettors.
For example, 25 years ago a typical Saturday Aqueduct crowd this time of year would be 12 to 15K. In spring 15 to 18k.
At least half to 2/3rds were occasional or recreational bettors. The guys in the business of betting for a living were at the OTB parlors and teletheatres. Maybe a few hundred were in the Clubhouse.
The "dumb" money doesn't exist anymore because there are so few occasional and recreational bettors. And fewer new people being attracted to the game.
The only places where real dumb money shows up are at boutique meets such as Keeneland, Saratoga and on Weekends at Del Mar Dumb money long ago went to the casinosand it isn't coming back. Most the money wagered today is either wise or obvious money with less than 2-3% being smart money in most races. A couple of times a week, the smart comes out in force and it is jump on by the obvious money betters. Usually on some first time starter. I doubt if the smart money % has changed much since I was first started betting 45 years ago. The"wise money" is almost all bet online. The tracks and OTBs only get obvious money and more of it goes online with each passing year.

thaskalos
11-29-2012, 04:23 AM
Do you agree with this breakdown and the percentages?

Smart money - Knowledge about a horse that the public isn't privvy to. (Bleeding info, drugs, surgeries, etc)
Wise money - Top level handicappers/bettors using the same data we all share but analyzing it better than most.
Obvious money - Money bet along the morning line expectations. (Basic players with a form and a program that do surface level handicapping)
Dumb money - Money bet without any knowledge. (Horse color, childs birthdate, etc)
I'd guess that the percentages of the pool lay out like this:

Smart = 25%
Wise = 20%
Obvious = 45%
Dumb = 10%
My guess is 25 years ago, it looked like this:

Smart = 20%
Wise = 10%
Obvious = 45%
Dumb = 25%


I feel a distinction needs to be made between major and minor tracks.

At major tracks:

Smart = 15%
Wise = 35%
Obvious = 40%
Dumb = 10%

At minor tracks:

Smart = 25%
Wise = 30%
Obvious = 40%
Dumb = 5%

mlbelang
11-29-2012, 09:51 AM
I agree with what thaskalos has broken down.

However, I can't help but feel that the categories are hard to define. "Obvious Money" could be dumb money.

For Example, I live right next to Saratoga so 4 days out of the week I'm there (during the meet). And there are plenty of rich people there....plenty....who could claim they are betting "obviously" and going with the M/L, but plenty of them bet "obviously" and bet a long-shot. Its just hard to say what is dumb and what is obvious.

I'd propose 3 classes: Smart, Wise, Dumb

Dumb includes the guys at my local OTB who go around to every screen and just play random numbers off the board. Sure, this might be "obvious betting" but i guarantee they do not break any sort of speakable long-term profit and arre therefore betting dumb money.

Smart: 15%
Wise: 30%
Dumb:55%

davew
11-29-2012, 10:24 AM
your numbers may be close for total handle

but those stats would surely be race specific as contrasted by -

-2 yr-old race with mostly first time starters
-Kentucky Derby


some pools are full and could not be 'smart' money
an example being show pools in 6 horse races
can you really make money with $2.10 pay-offs?

Magister Ludi
11-29-2012, 10:26 AM
Firstly, I would propose the following categories:
.....Insider
.....Casual
.....Serious
.....Professional

Secondly, as Mr. Thaskalos so aptly pointed out above, the percentages bet by each category are highly dependent upon certain factors:
.....track size - see Mr. Thaskalos' commentary
.....day of the week seasonality - casual betters are in greater attendance on holidays and weekends.

As an interesting aside, casual bettors may be responsible, in large part, for the favorite-longshot bias. They bet, for the most part, on colors, numbers, and names. Consequently, their bets are roughly equally distributed through the odds continuum.

Serious bettors perform at least a modicum of handicapping and bet more in line with the final public odds without the favorite-longshot bias. Professional bettors perform statistical arbitrage and bet overlays in any and all pools that offer them an edge. Both the serious and professional bettor bet far more on exotics than casual bettors.

As for the percentages of total betting handle...who knows? This would be my WAG:

.....Insiders.........5%
.....Casual.........30%
.....Serious........35%
.....Professional..30%

Once we agree on the categories, it may be interesting to create a poll.

precocity
11-29-2012, 11:22 AM
Always bet a grey on a sunny day love that dumb bet!!!! still do it today :cool:

Gekish
11-29-2012, 12:27 PM
Years ago the sharks were playing against the fish, now the sharks are playing against the sharks.

thaskalos
11-29-2012, 12:29 PM
Years ago the sharks were playing against the fish, now the sharks are playing against the sharks.

Or, to be more accurate...the sharks are playing against the whales...:)

JJMartin
11-29-2012, 12:31 PM
imo:

At major tracks:

Smart = 10%
Wise = 3O%
Obvious = 50%
Dumb = 10%

Smart money is not infallible, they still lose. The majority of the betting public at the track are mostly gamblers with a track program (which they keep rolled up and use it to beat against something while yelling at the tv monitor during the stretch run) that end up betting on the favorite at post time or the M/L fav or the best Jock for that track. (that is my perception anyway).

thaskalos
11-29-2012, 12:37 PM
imo:

At major tracks:

Smart = 10%
Wise = 3O%
Obvious = 50%
Dumb = 10%

Smart money is not infallible, they still lose. The majority of the betting public at the track are mostly gamblers with a track program (which they keep rolled up and use it to beat against something while yelling at the tv monitor during the stretch run) that end up betting on the favorite at post time or the M/L fav or the best Jock for that track. (that is my perception anyway).

The majority of the betting public may look and act as you describe...but they do not bet enough as a group to affect the tote board to as large an extent as their great group size would indicate.

The tote board counts dollars...not people.

JJMartin
11-29-2012, 12:41 PM
The majority of the betting public may look and act as you describe...but they do not bet enough as a group to affect the tote board to as large an extent as their great group size would indicate.

The tote board counts dollars...not people.
50% imo

thaskalos
11-29-2012, 12:52 PM
Dumb money - Money bet without any knowledge. (Horse color, childs birthdate, etc)


In the "Dumb money" I also included those who were relying on public selectors for their picks...that's why I said 5% and 10%.

If you strictly mean horse color, jockey silks and birthdays...then I would have to revise my estimate to about 1%.

Track Phantom
11-29-2012, 01:10 PM
The difference in these categories only accounts for how "informed" the money is in the pool. It doesn't matter whether they play favorites or longshots. It only matters how sophisticated the money is.

I used the wrong defintion for "obvious money" which is throwing this off. I would change it to "surface money" to indicate money invested using only surface level handicapping (able to read the form but not much more).


Here's a win pool example:
Win Pool: $100,000

Smart Money: $25,000 (25%)
Wise Money: $45,000 (45%)
Surface Money: $20,000 (20%)
Dumb Money: $10,000 (10%)

Smart/Wise money = sophisticated money. Surface/Dumb = unsophisticated money. The edge, for top level handicappers, is in the battle for unsophisticated dollars. While smart/wise money isn't always right, it appears to be more right than wrong. I notice a lot of horses win that are bet down from the morning line (not uncommon to see 12-1 ML go off at 7-2 without much form to speak of and win for fun).

For the example above, $70,000 is bet into the win pool with a higher level of supporting justification. Only $30,000 is bet into the pool with minimal insight. Basically, in this example, you're sitting down at a pretty stiff poker table.

This is one of the big problems with the game today. The money that is disappating is the fat part of the steak.

I think the pool needs to look more like this to make it appealing to big players:
Total Pool: $250,000

Smart Money: $25,000 (10%)
Wise Money: $45,000 (18%)
Surface Money: $80,000 (32%)
Dumb Money: $100,000 (40%)

castaway01
11-29-2012, 01:18 PM
If we're talking about the average day at a mid-size track:



Smart = 10%
Wise = 30%
Obvious = 50%
Dumb = 10%

The only reason the "smart" money is that low is that there are people who think they're the smart money but actually aren't because they're losing too much to be what I would define as "smart". So, they slide to the "wise" category where they have insight and information but aren't necessarily winning, just beating the takeout.

Certain small tracks, the "dumb" money is close to zero, and on big days, obviously the percentage goes way up with the casual fans.

Overlay
11-29-2012, 01:23 PM
Or, to be more accurate...the sharks are playing against the whales...:)

Speaking of whales, I would assume that they would be categorized "wise" as a group?

EJXD2
11-29-2012, 05:41 PM
So dumb money became smart and wise?

If smart money knows which horse(s) not to bet on, does it lay off as wise, obvious, or dumb money?

I've never liked the term dumb money, very disrespectful. Baseball fans fluent in sabremetrics and all manner of fantasy stats don't call people that just like to go to games "dumb fans", do they?

Poker players call it dead money or fish. I'd be shocked if hardcore fantasy baseball players don't have a derogatory name for casual players who go against them in big-time leagues.

JohnGalt1
11-29-2012, 07:36 PM
A smart/wise better places a $500 dollar early win bet at a medium level track on a 6-1 horse who is now 7-5. The dumb money and obvious money betters then put their $2 and $5 dollar bets on the same horse because someone "must know what they're doing" to pound a 6-1 into being the favorite.

Everyone wants to climb aboard a "sure thing."

We see it every day.

Track Phantom
11-29-2012, 10:32 PM
Remington Park, Race 7, 11-29-12....case in point....

$19,530 in the win pool

1: 296 (1.5%) - off at 53-1 from 30-1 ML
2: 3996 (20%) - off at 3-1 from 7-2 ML
3: 4225 (22%) - off at 5-2 from 3-1 ML
4: 3011 (15%) - off at 4-1 from 5-1 ML
5: 226 (2%) - off at 69-1 from 8-1 ML
6: 732 (3.5%) - off at 20-1 from 12-1 ML
7: 3312 (17%) - off at 7-2 from 20-1 ML
8: 307 (1.5%) - off at 51-1 from 10-1 ML
9: SCR
10: 2628 (14%) - off at 5-1 from 15-1 ML
11: 796 (4%) - off at 19-1 from 15-1 ML
You can probably guess where the smart money was....and who won.

Track Phantom
11-29-2012, 10:36 PM
Remington Park, Race 7, 11-29-12....case in point....

$19,530 in the win pool

1: 296 (1.5%) - off at 53-1 from 30-1 ML
2: 3996 (20%) - off at 3-1 from 7-2 ML
3: 4225 (22%) - off at 5-2 from 3-1 ML
4: 3011 (15%) - off at 4-1 from 5-1 ML
5: 226 (2%) - off at 69-1 from 8-1 ML
6: 732 (3.5%) - off at 20-1 from 12-1 ML
7: 3312 (17%) - off at 7-2 from 20-1 ML
8: 307 (1.5%) - off at 51-1 from 10-1 ML
9: SCR
10: 2628 (14%) - off at 5-1 from 15-1 ML
11: 796 (4%) - off at 19-1 from 15-1 ML
You can probably guess where the smart money was....and who won.

Interestingly, I've added the pick 3 will-pays:

1: 1374
2: 62
3: 52
4: 95
5: 458
6: 229
7: 458
8: 1374
9: -
10: 172
11: 687

The #5 (20-1 from 8-1 ML) and the #7 (7-2 from 20-1 ML) both paid the same in the pick 3. However, the win money said the 7 was the winner, and it was, for fun. It doesn't appear the public was on to this runner until tipped off by win money. I would say most of the win money here was smart money (inside money) with some additional piling on by tote board watchers prior to post

grant miller
11-29-2012, 11:36 PM
at major tracks (nyra, so. cali ) owners bet hard right? wouldnt that infucence the action of other betters ? what about big early (500 $ ) plus bets that are canceled ? I see that on betamerica when I pay attion to the win pool- makes me wonder if the cancelled bet was a mistake , or inside info!

Track Phantom
11-29-2012, 11:48 PM
I can't decipher what is happening with the betting. All I know is, at some tracks, horses that are hammered down and combined with form that is hard to endorse at low(ish) odds, win without fail.

Last race at Remington Park was the same story (11-29-12). 9-2 ML on a year layoff runner with poor form that wasn't bet a cent in any start for a trainer that has won 2 of 31 times off of a year layoff, gets hammered to 2-1 at post and wins going away. The public (unsophisticated money) had zero involvement in this move. Likely, wise players had little impact, as well. This was likely inside knowledge (for the most part). Obviously, the race wasn't strong so one could back one like this but 2-1? In the late '80's, early 90's, I garauntee you this runner would have been 5-1 or more.


http://i968.photobucket.com/albums/ae169/valento07/RPlast.jpg

thespaah
11-30-2012, 12:37 AM
at major tracks (nyra, so. cali ) owners bet hard right? wouldnt that infucence the action of other betters ? what about big early (500 $ ) plus bets that are canceled ? I see that on betamerica when I pay attion to the win pool- makes me wonder if the cancelled bet was a mistake , or inside info!
I think some larger players make bets that are then followed by watchers only to have those large bettors cancel the early bet and then bet the horses they actually had intended to bet.

Gallop58
11-30-2012, 12:54 PM
Great thread. Many people have commented on how smart/wise money is a "tax" on the game. Interesting how casino games add another dimension to the betting options with table limits. I've often wondered how the pool dynamics would change if there were "wagering limits" and multiple pools. It would surely change the distributions within the pools if Smart/Wise was limited. Is a single pool a blessing or a curse? It depends, I suppose...