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Aner
11-28-2012, 11:49 AM
A few months ago I posted 100 picks using selected morning line favorites or second morning line favorites. Results were positive. Later I tried 100 picks using only horses with a ML of 10:1 or higher. Big loss.

I plan to choose 100 horses in the 4:1 to 8:1 ML bracket. To avoid decimals, I will assume $20 is bet to win on each selection.

Slim pickings today.

Aqu 5-----#4 Skiddles n' Bob
Aqu 9-----#4 Comstock Prize
DeD 9-----#9 Miss Joe King

1st time lasix
11-28-2012, 12:00 PM
morning lines are totally irrelevent. They simply give the opinion of what the final odds will be according to the line maker.

mlbelang
11-28-2012, 12:03 PM
morning lines are totally irrelevent. They simply give the opinion of what the final odds will be according to the line maker.

More often than not, M/L odds are pretty accurate (save for some important scratches). It's pretty remarkable when you think about it.


Plus you also have to keep in mind casual bettors. They essentially gage the skill of a horse based on those bold odds on the program.

It matters.

DeltaLover
11-28-2012, 01:10 PM
I think we should keep this thread to Aner posting without additional comments.. It will make monitoring much easier...

mlbelang
11-28-2012, 02:38 PM
I think we should keep this thread to Aner posting without additional comments.. It will make monitoring much easier...

You're post being counter-productive?

I'm interested to see results as well. Perhaps moderators delete the above comments?

Capper Al
11-28-2012, 02:58 PM
ML should get more respect then it does. I'm looking forward toward your results. For myself, if I make a horse a non-contender and the trackman has him 7/2 or less I double check my work.

Aner
11-28-2012, 11:44 PM
Pick # Bet $20 win


1 Aqu 5 Skiddles n' Bob
2 Aqu 9 Comstock Driggs--
3 DeD 8 Miss Joe King----------96

Bet = $60
Back = $96

Profit = $36

Incidentally, I only use the morning line bracket to prevent wagering on low paying favorites or hopeless long shots. In most every case the actual favorite in a race will be less than 4:1 on the ML. If my top pick is one of these horses, I pass the race.

Aner
11-29-2012, 12:33 AM
Plays for 11/29/12

4--- FG 2--- Miss Sulu
5--- FG 6--- Raglin River
6--- FG 8--- Riverboat Bandit
7--- RP 2--- In Plain Sight
8--- RP 6--- G H Joe O
9--- RP 9--- Mizermize
10--- DeD 2--- Rio Rose
11--- DeD 3--- Art Shift
12--- DeD 8--- Go Fuzzy
13--- DeD 10--- Lucky Shoes

garyscpa
11-29-2012, 06:30 PM
Pick # Bet $20 win


1 Aqu 5 Skiddles n' Bob
2 Aqu 9 Comstock Driggs--
3 DeD 8 Miss Joe King----------96

Bet = $60
Back = $96

Profit = $36

Incidentally, I only use the morning line bracket to prevent wagering on low paying favorites or hopeless long shots. In most every case the actual favorite in a race will be less than 4:1 on the ML. If my top pick is one of these horses, I pass the race.

We've talked about it before, but at the big tracks the morning line tends to be much more accurate than at the smaller tracks like Delta and River Downs.

Aner
11-29-2012, 11:36 PM
4--- FG 2--- Miss Sulu
---- FG 6--- Raglin River--- scratched
5--- FG 8--- Riverboat Bandit
---- RP 2--- In Plain Sight--- scratched
6--- RP 6--- G H Joe O
7--- RP 9--- Mizermize
8--- DeD 2--- Rio Rose---------64
9--- DeD 3--- Art Shift
10--- DeD 8--- Go Fuzzy-------386
---- DeD 10--- Lucky Shoes---race cancelled

For the day:

Bet-------$140
Back-----$450
Net-----+$310

Overall:

Bet--------$200
Back------$546
Net------+$346

Aner
11-30-2012, 01:48 AM
Plays for 11/30/12

11--- Aqu 4--- Talmadge Hill
12--- Aqu 5--- T C Lane
13--- Aqu 6--- L B's Expression

14--- FG 1--- Sista Baby Girl
15--- FG 7--- In the A.M.
16--- FG 8--- Cho Cho Cat

17--- TP 2--- Big Brian
18--- TP 4--- Seminole Lady

19--- DeD 1--- Pegasus Prancer
20--- DeD 2--- Erroneous Too
21--- DeD 9--- Buddy's Man

Aner
11-30-2012, 11:04 PM
11/30/12

11--- Aqu 4--- Talmadge Hill
------ Aqu 5--- T C Lane--------------- scratched
12--- Aqu 6--- L B's Expression
13--- FG 1--- Sista Baby Girl---------146
14--- FG 7--- In the A.M.
15--- FG 8--- Cho Cho Cat
------ TP 2--- Big Brian--------------scratched
16--- TP 4--- Seminole Lady
17--- DeD 1--- Pegasus Prancer
18--- DeD 2--- Erroneous Too
19--- DeD 9--- Buddy's Man

For day:

Bet----$180
Back--$146
Loss--$34

Overall:

Bet-----$380
Back---$692
Net----$312
Profit---82%

Aner
12-01-2012, 12:38 AM
12/01/12

20--- Aqu 3--- Phantasticus
21--- Aqu 4--- Secret Union
22--- Aqu 6--- Singlet
23--- GP 6--- Bernie the Maestro
24--- GP 8--- Jaunita
25--- FG 5--- My Copy Cat
26--- FG 8--- Pantara Phantom
27--- FG 10--- Cryto Broad
28--- Haw 7--- Peter Louis
29--- Haw 8--- Iolanda's Perfect

Aner
12-01-2012, 07:05 PM
12/01/12

20--- Aqu 3--- Phantasticus
21--- Aqu 4--- Secret Union
22--- Aqu 6--- Singlet----------------58
23--- GP 6--- Bernie the Maestro---74
24--- GP 8--- Jaunita
25--- FG 5--- My Copy Cat
26--- FG 8--- Pantara Phantom
27--- FG 10--- Cryto Broad
28--- Haw 7--- Peter Louis
29--- Haw 8--- Iolanda's Perfect

For the Day:

Bet-----$200
Back---$132
Loss----$68

Overall:

Bet------$580
Back-----$824
Net------$244
% profit 42%

Aner
12-01-2012, 11:38 PM
12/2/12

Aqu 4-----Discreet Lady
FG 2------Thunder Harbor
FG 6------Tide Rising
FG 8------Freedom Run
FG 9------Southern Region
FG 10----Storm Around
Haw 2---Miss Darla
Haw 3---Mambo Galliano
HP 7----Money Makin Sam
HP 8----Comma to the Top

PICSIX
12-02-2012, 08:25 AM
Nice results so far, keep it going! :ThmbUp:

Capper Al
12-02-2012, 10:47 AM
A few months ago I posted 100 picks using selected morning line favorites or second morning line favorites. Results were positive. Later I tried 100 picks using only horses with a ML of 10:1 or higher. Big loss.

I plan to choose 100 horses in the 4:1 to 8:1 ML bracket. To avoid decimals, I will assume $20 is bet to win on each selection.

Slim pickings today.

Aqu 5-----#4 Skiddles n' Bob
Aqu 9-----#4 Comstock Prize
DeD 9-----#9 Miss Joe King

Aner,

Do you find horses within your ML range and then handicap between the contenders?

Aner
12-02-2012, 07:14 PM
12/2/12

Aqu 4-----Discreet Lady
FG 2------Thunder Harbor
FG 6------Tide Rising-----------------218
FG 8------Freedom Run--------------200
FG 9------Southern Region
FG 10----Storm Around--------------72
Haw 2---Miss Darla
Haw 3---Mambo Galliano
HP 7----Money Makin Sam
HP 8----Comma to the Top

For the Day:

Bet-----$200
Back---$490
Profit---$290

Overall:

Bet-----$780
Back----$1314
Net-----$534
Profit----68%

PaceAdvantage
12-02-2012, 07:21 PM
Forget my Breeders' Cup Betback thread....THESE ARE THE PICKS people should be paying attention to...

NICE GOING SO FAR ANER!

No wonder you've done so well in many of the contests here... :ThmbUp:

Aner
12-02-2012, 07:27 PM
Aner,

Do you find horses within your ML range and then handicap between the contenders?

No. Guess the thread title is misleading. I handicap all the horses in the race. If my top contender is less than 4:1 or greater than 10:1 on the ML before scratches, I pass that race for this test. In actual practice, I normally bet my top choice regardless of ML or actual odds. I just wanted to test my method with likely mid range horses.

castaway01
12-03-2012, 01:48 PM
You've been very strong with the Louisiana tracks---excellent work!

Aner
12-06-2012, 12:23 AM
12/06/12

40--- Haw 1----- Try a Lemon Drop
41--- Haw 3----- Camagin
42--- Haw 4----- Scarlet Power
43--- FG 2------- Taupine Pass
44--- FG 7------- Too Clever by Half
45--- DeD 4----- See the Stream
46--- DeD 5----- Lalace
47--- DeD 6----- Cape San Blas
48--- DeD 8----- Dance Caller

precocity
12-06-2012, 07:50 AM
good job aner see your pics for 12/6think i will be throwing down! :cool:

Aner
12-06-2012, 10:16 PM
12/06/12

40--- Haw 1----- Try a Lemon Drop
41--- Haw 3----- Camagin------------------64
42--- Haw 4----- Scarlet Power------------100
43--- FG 2------- Taupine Pass
XX--- FG 7------- Too Clever by Half-------scratched
44--- DeD 4----- See the Stream
45--- DeD 5----- Lalace
46--- DeD 6----- Cape San Blas
47--- DeD 8----- Dance Caller


For the day:

Bet-----$160
Back----$164
Profit-----$4

Overall:

Bet----------$940
Back--------$1478
Net----------$538
Profit------ 57%

Aner
12-07-2012, 01:05 AM
12/07/12

48--- Haw 4----- Da Nello
49--- Haw 8----- Milwaukee Wolf
50--- Haw 9----- Diver
51--- FG 2------- Quick Tempered
52--- FG 5------- Spicey World
53--- DeD 5----- Live to Run
54--- DeD 8----- Lasting Bubbles
55--- DeD 9----- Linnie Laurine

Aner
12-08-2012, 12:50 AM
12/07/12

48--- Haw 4----- Da Nello
49--- Haw 8----- Milwaukee Wolf------------------122
50--- Haw 9----- Diver
51--- FG 2------- Quick Tempered
52--- FG 5------- Spicey World
53--- DeD 5----- Live to Run
54--- DeD 8----- Lasting Bubbles
55--- DeD 9----- Linnie Laurine

For the Day:

Bet-------$160
Back------$122
Loss-------$38

Overall:

Bet-------$1100
Back-----$1600
Net------$500
Profit----45%

Aner
12-08-2012, 01:42 AM
12/08/12

56--- Tam 1----- Easy to Look At
57--- Haw 1----- Rio Bello
58--- Haw 5----- Lydia's Angel
59--- Haw 8----- Bug Juice
60--- Haw 9----- Hinkson Creek
61--- HP 1------- Distinctive Dude
62--- HP 5------- Arresting Officer
63--- HP 7------- Mentor Cane
64--- Lrl 5------- Love Talk
65--- Lrl 6------- Flying Forward
66--- Lrl 7------- Beaureal
67--- Lrl 8------- Javerre

Aner
12-09-2012, 12:32 AM
12/08/12

56--- Tam 1----- Easy to Look At
57--- Haw 1----- Rio Bello
58--- Haw 5----- Lydia's Angel
59--- Haw 8----- Bug Juice
60--- Haw 9----- Hinkson Creek
61--- HP 1------- Distinctive Dude
62--- HP 5------- Arresting Officer
63--- HP 7------- Mentor Cane
64--- Lrl 5------- Love Talk----------------106
65--- Lrl 6------- Flying Forward
66--- Lrl 7------- Beaureal
67--- Lrl 8------- Javerre


For the Day:

Bet-------$220
Back------$106
Loss------$114

Overall:

Bet-------$1320
Back-----$1706
Net------$386
Profit----29%

Aner
12-13-2012, 12:35 AM
12/13/12

67--- GP 5----- Mill Basin Mama
68--- FG 6----- Kiptastic
69--- FG 8----- Miss Clark County
70--- HP 4----- So Tempted
71--- HP 5----- Red Jag
72--- HP 6----- Until You
73--- DeD 4---- Prolonged

Aner
12-13-2012, 10:29 PM
12/13/12

67--- GP 5----- Mill Basin Mama
68--- FG 6----- Kiptastic
69--- FG 8----- Miss Clark County
70--- HP 4----- So Tempted
71--- HP 5----- Red Jag
XX--- HP 6----- Until You--------------scratched
72--- DeD 4---- Prolonged

For the Day:

Bet-------$120
Back------$0
Loss------$120

Overall:

Bet-------$1440
Back-----$1706
Net------$266
Profit----18%

Aner
12-14-2012, 12:09 PM
12/14/12

73--- Aqu 5----- Believe in Betty
74--- Aqu 7----- Notesfromabroad
75--- FG 3------- Untameable
76--- Tam 1----- Balino
77--- Tam 3----- Billy's Band
78--- Tam 10----Tri Polar
79--- GP 7------ Lady Rizzi

Aner
12-14-2012, 08:42 PM
Starting the stretch run and I'm shortening stride faster than a cheap claimer in a stakes race. Need to change leads for the drive.


12/14/12

73--- Aqu 5----- Believe in Betty
74--- Aqu 7----- Notesfromabroad
75--- FG 3------- Untameable
76--- Tam 1----- Balino------------------62
77--- Tam 3----- Billy's Band
78--- Tam 10----Tri Polar
79--- GP 7------ Lady Rizzi

For the Day:

Bet-------$140
Back------$62
Loss------$78

Overall:

Bet-------$1580
Back-----$1768
Net------$188
Profit----12%

Aner
12-14-2012, 09:17 PM
12/15/12

80--- Aqu 1----- Madman Diaries
81--- Aqu 4----- Boldchildsrevenge
82--- Aqu 8----- Royal Currier
83--- FG 6------- Royal Production
84--- FG 7------- Who's Shining Now
85--- FG 11----- Racing Cajun
86--- HP 5------ Tizmetizyou
87--- HP 6------ Axle
88--- DeD 3----- Choo Choo Larue
89--- DeD 5----- Cajun Chu Chu
90--- DeD 9----- Misty Lady
91--- DeD 10---- Sweeter Twitter

Aner
12-15-2012, 11:06 PM
The late fold continues. In the last two days 7 horses placed.


12/15/12

80--- Aqu 1----- Madman Diaries
81--- Aqu 4----- Boldchildsrevenge
82--- Aqu 8----- Royal Currier
83--- FG 6------- Royal Production
84--- FG 7------- Who's Shining Now
85--- FG 11----- Racing Cajun
86--- HP 5------ Tizmetizyou
87--- HP 6------ Axle
88--- DeD 3----- Choo Choo Larue
89--- DeD 5----- Cajun Chu Chu----------78
90--- DeD 9----- Misty Lady
91--- DeD 10---- Sweeter Twitter------scratched

For the Day:

Bet-------$220
Back------$78
Loss------$142

Overall:

Bet-------$1800
Back-----$1846
Net------$46
Profit----3%

Capper Al
12-16-2012, 07:32 AM
The late fold continues. In the last two days 7 horses placed.


12/15/12

80--- Aqu 1----- Madman Diaries
81--- Aqu 4----- Boldchildsrevenge
82--- Aqu 8----- Royal Currier
83--- FG 6------- Royal Production
84--- FG 7------- Who's Shining Now
85--- FG 11----- Racing Cajun
86--- HP 5------ Tizmetizyou
87--- HP 6------ Axle
88--- DeD 3----- Choo Choo Larue
89--- DeD 5----- Cajun Chu Chu----------78
90--- DeD 9----- Misty Lady
91--- DeD 10---- Sweeter Twitter------scratched

For the Day:

Bet-------$220
Back------$78
Loss------$142

Overall:

Bet-------$1800
Back-----$1846
Net------$46
Profit----3%

Yikes!

jk3521
12-16-2012, 10:22 AM
Every system has hot streaks :ThmbUp:

jk3521
12-16-2012, 10:24 AM
:eek: :eek: Every system has cold streaks

Aner
12-16-2012, 12:32 PM
12/16/12

91--- Aqu 3----- La Strada
92--- Aqu 6----- My Way or Dubaiway
93--- Aqu 7----- Moonshine Bay
94--- Aqu 8----- Shankopotamus

Aner
12-17-2012, 01:01 AM
12/16/12

91--- Aqu 3----- La Strada
92--- Aqu 6----- My Way or Dubaiway
93--- Aqu 7----- Moonshine Bay
94--- Aqu 8----- Shankopotamus


For the Day:

Bet-------$80
Back------$0
Loss------$80

Overall:

Bet-------$1880
Back-----$1846
Net------($34)
Loss-----(-2%)

Aner
12-20-2012, 06:10 PM
12/20/12

95--- DeD 1-----One Broadway Queen
96--- DeD 2----- My Genius Friend
97--- DeD 7-----Gate Zapper
98--- DeD 9-----Toro Bravo

Aner
12-20-2012, 10:47 PM
12/20/12

95--- DeD 1-----One Broadway Queen
96--- DeD 2----- My Genius Friend-----------64
97--- DeD 7-----Gate Zapper
98--- DeD 9-----Toro Bravo

For the Day:

Bet-------$80
Back------$64
Loss------$16

Overall:

Bet-------$1960
Back-----$1908
Net------($52)
Loss-----(-3%)

Aner
12-21-2012, 05:49 PM
12/21/12

99---- DeD 3----- Coal Miner Charlie
100--- DeD 10---- Highgeartotown

Aner
12-21-2012, 11:44 PM
12/21/12

99---- DeD 3----- Coal Miner Charlie
100--- DeD 10---- Highgeartotown

For the Day:

Bet-------$40
Back------$0
Loss------$40

Overall:

Bet-------$2000
Back-----$1908
Net------($92)
Loss-----(-5%)

sammy the sage
12-22-2012, 07:33 AM
very tough this game we play...way to stick to finish...

What would results have been if you just bet place only?

DeltaLover
12-22-2012, 08:13 AM
Do not be fooled by the negative ROI.
Based in the small small sample this is completely acceptable.

I think Aner's performance is good.

He proved again that he is an exceptionaly good handicapper..

Robert Goren
12-22-2012, 08:24 AM
Aner is one of best handicappers here. What this thread shows how hard it is to show a profit these day betting 4-1 to 8-1. I know people don't like to hear it, but if you going make money in today's racing world, you can't wonder too high up the odds latter.

DeltaLover
12-22-2012, 08:31 AM
What this thread shows how hard it is to show a profit these day betting 4-1 to 8-1.

I do not agree that this thread shows such a thing. The sample is very small and even with such a few races the result is close to a tie.

In my opinion if this thread has something to show, is that it might be very possible to show profitability in this range...

Robert Goren
12-22-2012, 08:44 AM
I never it was impossible, but it is very hard . Aner has two other treads, 10-1 + which lost big time and one with favorites or second favorites which showed a profit. It doesn't take a genius to figure out which way is the easiest way to be profitable. Betting selective short priced horses is the easiest way to win. It may not be the most fun and it is a slow grind, but it is the easiest way to get in the plus column.

castaway01
12-22-2012, 12:51 PM
I never it was impossible, but it is very hard . Aner has two other treads, 10-1 + which lost big time and one with favorites or second favorites which showed a profit. It doesn't take a genius to figure out which way is the easiest way to be profitable. Betting selective short priced horses is the easiest way to win. It may not be the most fun and it is a slow grind, but it is the easiest way to get in the plus column.

There's no way you can correctly draw such broad conclusions from one person's small betting sample. Everyone is going to have different experiences with what type of horses and odds work best for them.

Robert Goren
12-22-2012, 01:40 PM
There's no way you can correctly draw such broad conclusions from one person's small betting sample. Everyone is going to have different experiences with what type of horses and odds work best for them.You can bet what you want. Every study I have seen show the lower the odds , the less money per bet you would if bet every horse at those odds. Aner's sample just shows what other much larger studies have shown.

TexasDolly
12-22-2012, 03:33 PM
You can bet what you want. Every study I have seen show the lower the odds , the less money per bet you would if bet every horse at those odds. Aner's sample just shows what other much larger studies have shown.

I can't follow your post aand I wondered if you could restate it.
Thank you,
TD

Robert Goren
12-22-2012, 05:26 PM
I can't follow your post aand I wondered if you could restate it.
Thank you,
TDI don't have numbers in front of mer right now, but several people have posted them in the past. If you bet every 4/5 shot your negative ROI is than that if you had bet every 9/5 shot which in turn less than if you bet every 9/2 shot. In other words, the higher the odds, the higher the negative ROI. This is not my idea. The first time I read about it was in one of Quirin's books. Other people have posted larger studies here showing the same thing.

castaway01
12-24-2012, 03:43 PM
I don't have numbers in front of mer right now, but several people have posted them in the past. If you bet every 4/5 shot your negative ROI is than that if you had bet every 9/5 shot which in turn less than if you bet every 9/2 shot. In other words, the higher the odds, the higher the negative ROI. This is not my idea. The first time I read about it was in one of Quirin's books. Other people have posted larger studies here showing the same thing.

There are many studies and samples on this board that show the opposite results---Jeff P just posted one in the "bet sizing" thread.

Robert Goren
12-24-2012, 03:58 PM
There are many studies and samples on this board that show the opposite results---Jeff P just posted one in the "bet sizing" thread.Jeff P posted study of a model which had a lot of restrections over very short period of time. Good Luck if you decide to use his Model over a long period of time. Maybe Jeff P will show the results of that model over a year time. I think you would see a very different result.

TexasDolly
12-24-2012, 05:23 PM
I don't have numbers in front of mer right now, but several people have posted them in the past. If you bet every 4/5 shot your negative ROI is than that if you had bet every 9/5 shot which in turn less than if you bet every 9/2 shot. In other words, the higher the odds, the higher the negative ROI. This is not my idea. The first time I read about it was in one of Quirin's books. Other people have posted larger studies here showing the same thing.

Thanks for clarifying your earlier post.
TD

Aner
12-24-2012, 06:46 PM
Here's some information from Dave's "Percentages and Probabilities, 2012". I don't think he will mind my sharing this information.

Claiming Sprints (Win Bets)

Highest Odds-------------$ Net

3/5------------------------1.71
6/5------------------------1.68
5/2------------------------1.66
9/2------------------------1.61
6---------------------------1.62
9---------------------------1.56
15--------------------------1.50
24--------------------------1.49
35--------------------------1.32
hiigher---------------------1.05

Total-----------------------1.50 (206,606 races)

Every odds range is a loser, but the higher the odds the more the loss.

castaway01
12-24-2012, 07:58 PM
If you're quoting samples of what every horse ever pays on average, you're missing the point because you're not betting every horse ever. You stick with those 2-5 shots and I'll stick with the 8-1 shots. Thanks.

Aner
12-24-2012, 08:11 PM
I agree. I don't bet odds on horses. The range 4:1 to 20:1 is my meat and potatoes. And the quote is indeed betting every horse in that odds range. Obviously, no one does that. The point is, if you have no real edge, you will lose less with low odds horses. Hopefully we all do better than those betting averages.

raybo
12-25-2012, 12:45 PM
I agree. I don't bet odds on horses. The range 4:1 to 20:1 is my meat and potatoes. And the quote is indeed betting every horse in that odds range. Obviously, no one does that. The point is, if you have no real edge, you will lose less with low odds horses. Hopefully we all do better than those betting averages.

Agree, the odds only tell you what the payout will be if it hits. Your own handicapping method will determine how you do. Naturally, if your method is geared traditionally, and you do a good job, you will land on lower priced horses, and while your hit rate may be good, your ROI may not, probably will not, be good.

On the other had, if your method is geared non-traditionally, and you do a good job of 'capping, you will land on higher priced horses, and while your hit rate may be lower, your ROI may be, probably will be, higher.

Robert Goren
12-25-2012, 03:45 PM
Thanks Aner for the chart. All I was trying to point out is that you have to be less selective when betting short priced horses to get to a postive ROI because the short priced horses lose less money when taken as a whole.

Robert Goren
12-25-2012, 03:48 PM
Agree, the odds only tell you what the payout will be if it hits. Your own handicapping method will determine how you do. Naturally, if your method is geared traditionally, and you do a good job, you will land on lower priced horses, and while your hit rate may be good, your ROI may not, probably will not, be good.

On the other had, if your method is geared non-traditionally, and you do a good job of 'capping, you will land on higher priced horses, and while your hit rate may be lower, your ROI may be, probably will be, higher. but the number of plays may be , probably will be, fewer

thaskalos
12-25-2012, 04:31 PM
Thanks Aner for the chart. All I was trying to point out is that you have to be less selective when betting short priced horses to get to a postive ROI because the short priced horses lose less money when taken as a whole.
You cannot be less selective when you are betting short-priced horses, Robert...because you have to maintain a winning percentage high enough to make playing worthwhile...and that's very difficult.

The chalk bettor has a small margin of error because of the short prices he collects...so he has to be very selective.

The handicapper has to be good enough to pick some decent-priced winners too...otherwise he is in a bad spot. Restricting wagers to first and second favorites won't cut it...IMO.

raybo
12-25-2012, 04:43 PM
but the number of plays may be , probably will be, fewer

Lots of tracks out there, and even if there are fewer plays, so what? Are you an action junkie? Do you not have the bankroll, or the mental toughness, to allow larger wagers? What's the big deal about number of plays, unless you're looking for pennies on the dollar? Good grief.

Robert Goren
12-25-2012, 07:50 PM
Lots of tracks out there, and even if there are fewer plays, so what? Are you an action junkie? Do you not have the bankroll, or the mental toughness, to allow larger wagers? What's the big deal about number of plays, unless you're looking for pennies on the dollar? Good grief.The cost of information and cost in both time and money of processing it.

raybo
12-25-2012, 08:41 PM
The cost of information and cost in both time and money of processing it.

Well, I've heard a lot of things, but that one's rare.