Claiming level for cheap claimers

[jasperson]

Yesterday my friend and I both had come up with the same horse in a race. These were $4500 claimers at FL. Our horse had won has last race and was moving from nw1 to nw2 and I didn't bet him. I told my friend why I didn't bet him was because of his class jump and he said he didn't look at that since they are all $4500 claimers. The horse finished next to last. I think that nw class jumps are important what do you think?

[Capper Al]

The big question with claimers is are they fit. With a recent win within 30 days, the horse should be fit. Will they run the horse is another question. The class move up offers resistance. But if the higher class horses are not fit, then the horse moving up stands a very good chance. Perdicting these can be very profitable.

[Robert Goren]

The movement from NW of 1 to NW of 2 is huge class jump at most tracks, but not all. The movement from NW of 2 to NW of 1 is also huge class drop at most tracks. It something I look for at places like Tampa.

[jasperson]

The big question with claimers is are they fit. With a recent win within 30 days, the horse should be fit. Will they run the horse is another question. The class move up offers resistance. But if the higher class horses are not fit, then the horse moving up stands a very good chance. Perdicting these can be very profitable.

Al, I don't like to bet cheap claimers that won their last race under almost any conditions. I might bet him if a he had a big win and is coming back at the same level, but if they are they don't pay much.

[bob60566]

playing cheap claimers after a win is not a good idea they win but few and far between.
Maybe data guys have more info?

[BlueShoe]

First of all, not sure of the question. By NW 1 does it mean a runner that has just won a maiden race or does it mean winning a race for NW2L? As almost all 'cappers know, repeating after breaking it's maiden is usually tough for a horse to do, but going from a NW2L to a NW3L is not quite so hard assuming the claiming price level remains the same. Horses coming off of fast easy wins coming back quickly and stepping up in class have long been one of my favorite type of plays, provided of course, it passes basic handicapping analysis. Thus a runner having just won a 8000 NW2L could be a solid play for me in a 10000 NW3L. Having competitive speed and pace figures is a must for these types in order to be a play.

[Tom]

If you have the Beyer Pars, they can be a good indicator of how hard the step up will be. The chapter in Davidowitz's book on this is pretty good.

[Robert Goren]

First of all, not sure of the question. By NW 1 does it mean a runner that has just won a maiden race or does it mean winning a race for NW2L? As almost all 'cappers know, repeating after breaking it's maiden is usually tough for a horse to do, but going from a NW2L to a NW3L is not quite so hard assuming the claiming price level remains the same. Horses coming off of fast easy wins coming back quickly and stepping up in class have long been one of my favorite type of plays, provided of course, it passes basic handicapping analysis. Thus a runner having just won a 8000 NW2L could be a solid play for me in a 10000 NW3L. Having competitive speed and pace figures is a must for these types in order to be a play. The odds better be real good to bet that kind of horse. My general rule is that a NW2L 8000 is equal to NW3L 4000. Each movement up the condition ladder is a drop in half of claiming price. Generally 10000 NW3 races are filled horses who their NW2L race with a claiming price of 20000 or more. Most winners of 8000 NW2L never win that third race at any claiming price.

[fmolf]

The odds better be real good to bet that kind of horse. My general rule is that a NW2L 8000 is equal to NW3L 4000. Each movement up the condition ladder is a drop in half of claiming price. Generally 10000 NW3 races are filled horses who their NW2L race with a claiming price of 20000 or more. Most winners of 8000 NW2L never win that third race at any claiming price.
All very true all one needs to do is open the form,and look at all the horses entered in the conditioned claiming races.Very very few horses go thru their conditions with back to back wins,especially at the lower levels.Quinn stated in "the Handicappers Condition Book"..most conditioned claimers do not win their condition after stepping up until most of the other better horses on the grounds have won at the level.

[Shemp Howard]

And most NW's1 will never lose that condition.

[Tom]

This is my Beyer Par for older males at Tampa Bay - still a work in progress, but the data is based on decent sample sizes over 5-7 years.

This gives me a good idea where winners of each class might have the best shot next time out.

[windoor]

playing cheap claimers after a win is not a good idea they win but few and far between.
Maybe data guys have more info?


That is what my data tells me, and as a result I will throw out a last time winner unless he/she dropped in for a tag.

Windoor

[windoor]

Then again.

Curious about the number without using any of my spot play filters.

I looked at a small sample size of 5500 races and the results are much better than I thought they would be.

Over all tracks and all class's, the win percent was 16% with and average odd of 3 to 1.

For 5K claimers the results were 17.4% at 4 to 1. Go figure.
If ran 2nd last time out, the win percent goes up to 18.5, but the odd drops to 3 to 1.


I am pretty sure the results would be much different on a track to track basis, but there it is.


Windoor

[TrifectaMike]

That is what my data tells me, and as a result I will throw out a last time winner unless he/she dropped in for a tag.

Windoor

Stats maybe different for races with multiple last time wiinners vs races with a single last time winner.

Mike (Dr Beav)

[windoor]

Stats maybe different for races with multiple last time wiinners vs races with a single last time winner.

Mike (Dr Beav)

Yes.

Using the same sample, if won last two starts,the win percent jumps to 24.9% with an average odd of 2.5 to 1. for 5K claimers.

Interesting.


Windoor

[Robert Fischer]

Stats maybe different for races with multiple last time wiinners vs races with a single last time winner.

Mike (Dr Beav)

good point.

[Linny]

Flakes uses lots of "dated" conditions which don't show dates in the Form. There is a class hike betweem "dated" NW1 since and NW2 since... The latter condition allows in more current form. Also Flakes conditions as read in the DRF don't reflect the time of the condition. There's a huge difference between non winners of a race going back to the beginning on 2011 (chronic losers for nearly 2 years) and non winners for 6 months.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Flakes uses lots of "dated" conditions which don't show dates in the Form. There is a class hike betweem "dated" NW1 since and NW2 since... The latter condition allows in more current form. Also Flakes conditions as read in the DRF don't reflect the time of the condition. There's a huge difference between non winners of a race going back to the beginning on 2011 (chronic losers for nearly 2 years) and non winners for 6 months.

I use this angle.If you look at the horse's record you can usually figure it out or simply by the figures of the race.I had a horse at Beulah go up in class in a nw3y-current year and run a moderately decent figure,drop into a n3y-2 years and win at 25-1.I guess handicappers thought the outrun line and n3y tag proved it worthless especially after the horse had run under nw1y,nw2y-both current year and losing.

[CincyHorseplayer]

This is my Beyer Par for older males at Tampa Bay - still a work in progress, but the data is based on decent sample sizes over 5-7 years.

This gives me a good idea where winners of each class might have the best shot next time out.

Good stuff Tom.I've noticed some of the same things about Tampa's class,mainly how nice of an edge that subtle drop from 10nw3l to 8nw3l can be.

[grant miller]

you have to remember the trainer too in cheaper tracks (finger lakes ect..) alot of certain trainers horses win big moving up till someone claims it and, cant find out the key (or gas)! J.M.O.

[luisbe]

The big question with claimers is are they fit. With a recent win within 30 days, the horse should be fit. Will they run the horse is another question. The class move up offers resistance. But if the higher class horses are not fit, then the horse moving up stands a very good chance. Perdicting these can be very profitable.
RE cheap claimers form reminds me my best hit and my best "future" mistake.
Same claiming level both races.
I played a .20 sfc at Woo on 11-28-08 with three key horses on top and several behind for around $40 with this result: Attachment 01.
The same horse raced at the same level 8 days later, I played a sfc of about the same amount without using it for the top 2 places, the result? See attachment 02.

[luisbe]

Sorry, it wasn't the same level but from low open claiming to AlwN2L other than.