Too Much Information?

[Tee]

Can too much info be just that - too much & thus start to cloud the mind of a handicapper?

I read quite often(on horse racing message boards) about pace & spd figures, par times, beaten length adjustments, race times etc etc.

I personally take a simplistic view(imo) when looking at past performances. I try to figure out a scenario of how I think the race is going to play out & wager accordingly. The only other factor I put into the mix is how the track has been playing the past few days & how I feel it is currently playing after watching a few races early on in the card.

What say the members of Pace Advantage? Is there a point where data becomes a hindrance or does the more a handicapper knows/uses - help him/her become a better player?

[Tee]

Along with too much information, can a horse player have too many determining handicapping factors that could also lead to confusion or does this thoroughness lead to more success?

[so.cal.fan]

Yes, the most sucessful handicappers/bettors I know have really simple methods. They work hard at them.....but they are no big complex deal.
A handicapper is better off to focus on something they feel comfortable with and do the best job they can do to get the most out of it..........without getting confused with too much data.
That said, I do not use a computer program, and I'm sure that these make it easier for the handicapper to make a good decision without doing all the boring work, so if you are using a program you feel good about......well and good.
If not......keep it simple and do a good job.;)

[shanta]

i like your "simplistic" approach the best. Too much info (more than 3 or 4 bits of info) send me into "the black hole" from which there is no escape for me.:eek:

Richie:)

[InsideThePylons-MW]

100%-Yes

Keep handicapping simple and focus more effort on the complicated task of extracting profit from races through understanding complex wagering and value.

A weak handicapper that knows how to bet the money, will demolish a superb handicapper that is a weak bettor.

[Suff]

I went on a 2nd/3rd time lasix in FILLYS betting bonanza this fall...

I some how convinced myself I was onto something....particulary with certain trainers.

I had no way of running any DATABASE samples over the strips I liked the idea on... (NYRA in this case).

The week I was looking at the IDEA of upgrading the PAPER of 3YO Fillys going 2nd/3rd lasix....I watched 3 of them pay over 30 bucks. That was the only real evidence I had , that perhaps the angle was worthy.

I chased that Dog into the ground.

Now that I have a Little Mini NY database. I just saved myself not only a few shinkles...but a whole lotta time to test worthy ideas or better yet... proven ideas.

I'm in the "more" information mode currently.

[cj]

The important information is that which isn't printed in the PPs. Find something you enjoy to develop information not freely available to the public, and exploit it. A little privately held info beats all the tons of public info every time.

By private, I don't mean "inside" info, which generally stinks. Become a trainer expert, or make good pace numbers, hit the breeding angles hard, etc. Something you have to work at will pay off handsomely.

[mountainman]

as an avowed "low tech" handicapper, i hasten to agree that info overload can be a bad bad thing, cut my teeth(at a very young age) on ancient ainslie primers that scoffed at systems, and likewise eschewed dogmatic devotion to any single approach.....instead, ainslie recommended that the player keep an open(uncluttered) mind, read a horse's form from the bottom up, and paint himself a "detailed picture" of the horse's history.....in my humble opinion, that cuts to the crux of this thread.....there is a story revealed in the past performances of most horses, and players mired down with mechanical methods(however well crafted), or sorting through reams of stats are sure to miss it....please don't confuse information overload with information edge, because it's common knowledge nowadays that profitable play requires some supplementation of the racing form...personally(and i invite comment from other players on this) i find a daily log of track bias indispensible, and keep a modest database(microsoft excel) on post position and running style at various distances..am also working up a study (for my hometrack mountaineer) of ship in horses, listed by trainer and "feeder track" ,exploring how they fare at various odds in various types of races.......but by today's standards, my modest research is surely low tech..and that's a label im proud of........

[ranchwest]

mountainman,

While you do make some good points, I'd like to point out that a computer or lack of a computer does not make information any more relevant or useless. It is a matter of sifting through the available information and ending up with something worthwhile, regardless of how you get it.

[alysheba88]

Agree with ITP and others. Way too much analysis goes into handicapping and not nearly enough into other things. Players spend 95% of their time on the contender selection process instead of the more appropriate 25% or so. I have been there and done that myself (although not with the zealousness of the computer whizzes).

The constant tweaking of "numbers" is counter productive in the end.

[highnote]

Check out this link from the CIA: "An Experiment: Betting on the Horses".

http://www.cia.gov/csi/books/19104/art8.html

[so.cal.fan]

Very interesting, SJ from Conn.

[Suff]

Originally posted by swetyejohn
Check out this link from the CIA: "An Experiment: Betting on the Horses".

http://www.cia.gov/csi/books/19104/art8.html

Surreal. large Portions of it read like a Novel.

[formula_2002]

You have got to love it.

"Conclusions

To the leaders and managers of intelligence who seek an improved intelligence product, these findings offer a reminder that this goal can be achieved by improving analysis as well as collection. There appear to be inherent practical limits on how much can be gained by efforts to improve collection. By contrast, an open and fertile field exists for imaginative efforts to improve analysis."


Which could mean... the data has told us what we dont want to hear, so lets make up some thing!!

[formula_2002]

From chapter 14

"The Bottom Line

Analysis can be improved! None of the measures discussed in this book will guarantee that accurate conclusions will be drawn from the incomplete and ambiguous information that intelligence analysts typically work with. Occasional intelligence failures must be expected. Collectively, however, the measures discussed here can certainly improve the odds in the analysts' favor."

I think we knew this on the "go in"

[kenwoodallpromos]

Improved analysis is better with more correct information. In horsecapping, each bettor may have an effective limit to how much info causes overloaded brain cells and an "anybody can win" conclusion!

[Secretariat]

Originally posted by Suff
Surreal. large Portions of it read like a Novel.

thanks Suff. A GREAT read....

[Jake]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
The important information is that which isn't printed in the PPs. Find something you enjoy to develop information not freely available to the public, and exploit it. A little privately held info beats all the tons of public info every time.

By private, I don't mean "inside" info, which generally stinks. Become a trainer expert, or make good pace numbers, hit the breeding angles hard, etc. Something you have to work at will pay off handsomely.

Best advice that I have seen here for awhile. If you chose to fade the favorite, you need to understand where to go for your best chances. Without some kind of specialized insight--trainer, pace, breeding angles--the public odds are relatively stable and tough to beat.

[KIANTI]

That article was reprinted in 1 of doc sartins "followups". A great read. Thanx. Richie (shanta)