My Breeders' Cup Bet Back List

[PaceAdvantage]

OK, so after the Breeders' Cup, I posted on here that I thought I'd do something I have never done before. Create a stable alert list of horses I thought were negatively impacted by what I think was a pretty clear early speed bias on Breeders' Cup Friday/Saturday at Santa Anita.

The first of those horses has been entered to run Saturday at Hollywood (not a track known to be kind to speed horses, so take that for what it's worth).

In any event, I intend to use this thread to see how my horses off this list perform.

First up...Conkate...entered in the 8th race at Hollywood on Saturday.

[sammy the sage]

a good interesting thread to start...bit of a red board...my 1st was Il Villiano...who just ran not so hot at Penn...

Thought 2 back...dead rail...last at cup...just the opposite...a victim of inside speed bias...guess he's just not good enough.

Any other's show up...I'll post...

Fri...like Take Charge Indy...last was just a tightener...hope he's good enough...not Breeder's but a Derby bet back...

Curious...don't remember the horse you're posting about...any particular reason why?

[PaceAdvantage]

Conkate ran on the under card BC Friday...

[windoor]

I do something similar, in that I track horses that I played to win, but for what ever reason, they did not hit the board. If they ran fourth or better, I just count it as a loss and move on. I see it as a contender that wasn't quite good enough.

If they at least showed a little early speed (or had an obvious excuse) during the race, I'll play them the next time out. Regardless of any other handicapping factors and doing nothing other than that, I still get a decent hit rate and an above average odd. Works for me.

Regards,

Windoor

[sammy the sage]

Conkate ran on the under card BC Friday...

guess I wasn't clear...and I can see why in hindsight.

Just wondered why Conkate was a bet back?

[sammy the sage]

Would a bet against horse count here...Groupie Doll ran a lifetime monster race AGAINST the bias in the BC...quick come back...on my list to bet against.

[Capper Al]

Are we using the BC races as key races and following the non-winners to their next race?

[lamboguy]

not that i would ever do this for breeders cup races, but this is one of the best ways to play horses. you figure out when a horse has a disadvantage with the track bias and play the horse the next time.

i have a horse in today at Parx that i loved, he is training great. but i heard the maintenance crew added more dirt to the track. i am now going to pass on betting on this horse today and wait for a better day. i drew the rail and expect it to be dead as a door knob.

[PaceAdvantage]

Are we using the BC races as key races and following the non-winners to their next race?I am using races on that Friday and Saturday where I saw horses show something DESPITE running against the perceived bias.

What is "something?" A halfway decent finish...a "move"...something gleaned off the charts...this isn't science...it's more art...and thus more prone to failure... :lol:

And like I said, I've never done anything like this before.

Got a stable alert on another one...NORTHERN IOWA is entered in Sunday's 8th race at Hollywood.

I will be keeping track of WPS ROI regardless of post time odds.

[lamboguy]

not that i would ever do this for breeders cup races, but this is one of the best ways to play horses. you figure out when a horse has a disadvantage with the track bias and play the horse the next time.

i have a horse in today at Parx that i loved, he is training great. but i heard the maintenance crew added more dirt to the track. i am now going to pass on betting on this horse today and wait for a better day. i drew the rail and expect it to be dead as a door knob.the rail did get me yesterday, he run on the inside the whole way around the track and got aced at the wire. that's the life of a hustler, just another missed opportunity.

my old saying, "loss of opportunity is better than loss of capital"

[nijinski]

Would you give Coil another shot in the Cigar ? Bafferts shipping and the field looks skimmed down to five .

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't like Coil much in the Cigar..he doesn't seem to have much in the way of any advantages...he doesn't look to be able to get away early and his closing ability ranks near the bottom of this short field.

I like Hymn Book a lot here...I think he's the only one who is going to be worth betting, although Stay Thirsty is now a huge threat to win it all. I also give Groupie Doll a shot, but think she will be way overbet.

So my pick in the Cigar is Hymn Book.

[nijinski]

[QUOTE=PaceAdvantage]I don't like Coil much in the Cigar..he doesn't seem to have much in the way of any advantages...he doesn't look to be able to get away early and his closing ability ranks near the bottom of this short field.

I like Hymn Book a lot here...I think he's the only one who is going to be worth betting, although Stay Thirsty is now a huge threat to win it all. I also give Groupie Doll a shot, but think she will be way overbet.

So my pick in the Cigar is Hymn Book.

Stay Thirsty and Hymn Book are certainly up to it. I was looking for a price and I know Coil didn't get a great shot in at the BC . I questioned Baffert shipping and that was one of the factors .
Good Luck on your picks!

[PaceAdvantage]

What an awful pick by me in the Cigar... :lol:

Hopefully my bet backs do a little better this weekend...

[PaceAdvantage]

I think when Andy Serling mentioned on-air today how things posted on message boards are undoubtedly wrong, he was talking about my pick in the Cigar... :lol: :lol: :lol:

[nijinski]

Well I also try to find something good that comes out of each race ,lol .
At last Stay Thirsty is continuing the last career race trend . Nice to see him go out a winner.
Fine effort by Groupie Doll .
I'm afraid Bradley will have to bare hearing " So close but no Cigar " .

[cj]

I think when Andy Serling mentioned on-air today how things posted on message boards are undoubtedly wrong, he was talking about my pick in the Cigar... :lol: :lol: :lol:

You were right about Stay Thirsty!

[PaceAdvantage]

You were right about Stay Thirsty!Yes, and he paid a square price, but I allowed myself to become enamored too much with Hymn Book.

It's snowing at the Big A...I'm going with the 4 and 1 in the Gazelle as the gates spring open.

[PaceAdvantage]

It's snowing at the Big A...I'm going with the 4 and 1 in the Gazelle as the gates spring open.See...Andy was right again... :bang: :lol:

[nijinski]

I'll play Coil again , but in Cali , at a drop in company and distance only . :D

[PaceAdvantage]

Conkate finished 4th...and was bet down to 9/2...lol

BB Record:

Bets 1
W (0/1) $0
P (0/1) $0
S (0/1) $0
----------
T (0/3) $0

[the little guy]

I think when Andy Serling mentioned on-air today how things posted on message boards are undoubtedly wrong, he was talking about my pick in the Cigar... :lol: :lol: :lol:


You ( among others, on other boards as well ) falling for the sucker play of the year, This Ones for Phil, was more what I was referring to.

[PaceAdvantage]

Double-ouch! :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

Northern Iowa finished 2nd at short odds...

BB Record:

Bets 2
W(0/2) $0.00 | ROI 0.00
P (1/2) $3.60 | ROI 0.90
S (1/2) $2.80 | ROI 0.70
-----------------------
T (2/6) $6.40 | ROI 0.53

[overthehill]

fwiw i think that betting horses back after they run in the breeders cup is a losing game. at least half of the field has probably been pointing the race for many months and the trainers have the horses set to peak for that one race. the other half is taking a shot because their horse suddenly showed huge improvement in their last race or two . either way you are are betting on a horse who probably peaked last race or two back. this is very similar to horses that run in the arc then come here for the breeders cup and run poorly as heavy chalk.
I would assume that many of the horses who run back in 2012 are taking one last shot bfore they retire. I thought groupie doll was beatable before the race but watching the race and seeing the slow early fractions i was sure she would win being hands down the best sprinter in the group but she still lost.

I guess i will keep tabs and here to look for races to bet against the probable favorite.

[PaceAdvantage]

The two horses to run off my list thus far didn't run in BC races...I believe they were on the undercard...

The title of this thread might be misleading (and not only for the bad picks contained within so far...lol). I am not betting these horses back because of the BC, but because it seemed to me to be a pretty severe early speed bias that day, and horses who ran well while running against the bias made it onto my list...whether or not they actually ran in a BC race is immaterial.

[PaceAdvantage]

Two more running this weekend:

Amy's Outburst - Saturday, Hollywood Park - Race 9
Smiling Tiger - Sunday, Hollywood Park - Race 8

[PaceAdvantage]

I think there might be a reason why I have never made lists like these before...Amy's Outburst finished 4th @ 5-1... :bang:

BB Record:

Bets 3
W(0/3) $0.00 | ROI 0.00
P (1/3) $3.60 | ROI 0.60
S (1/3) $2.80 | ROI 0.47
-----------------------
T (2/9) $6.40 | ROI 0.35

[menifee]

fwiw i think that betting horses back after they run in the breeders cup is a losing game. at least half of the field has probably been pointing the race for many months and the trainers have the horses set to peak for that one race. the other half is taking a shot because their horse suddenly showed huge improvement in their last race or two . either way you are are betting on a horse who probably peaked last race or two back. this is very similar to horses that run in the arc then come here for the breeders cup and run poorly as heavy chalk.
I would assume that many of the horses who run back in 2012 are taking one last shot bfore they retire. I thought groupie doll was beatable before the race but watching the race and seeing the slow early fractions i was sure she would win being hands down the best sprinter in the group but she still lost.

I guess i will keep tabs and here to look for races to bet against the probable favorite.

You are absolutely right about this. Someone did a study (maybe someone on this board?) and found that betting against heavy favorites in their next race after a Breeders Cup race was a pretty profitable play. I've noticed for years that horses that run in Breeders Cup race don't typically win their next race.

Jaycito just showed why this theory is wrong sometimes, but he didn't lift a leg on Breeders Cup day.

[cj]

I think there might be a reason why I have never made lists like these before...Amy's Outburst finished 4th @ 5-1... :bang:

BB Record:

Bets 3
W(0/3) $0.00 | ROI 0.00
P (1/3) $3.60 | ROI 0.60
S (1/3) $2.80 | ROI 0.47
-----------------------
T (2/9) $6.40 | ROI 0.35

Classhandicapper is not going to be happy about this.

[The Hawk]

I think there might be a reason why I have never made lists like these before...Amy's Outburst finished 4th @ 5-1... :bang:

BB Record:

Bets 3
W(0/3) $0.00 | ROI 0.00
P (1/3) $3.60 | ROI 0.60
S (1/3) $2.80 | ROI 0.47
-----------------------
T (2/9) $6.40 | ROI 0.35

PA don't lose hope. Only takes one decent price and you're out. I bet you get it, your original theory was solid.

[PaceAdvantage]

Hey...a winner...8/5...lol...but a winner...Smiling Tiger won...

BB Record:

Bets 4
W(1/4) $5.40 | ROI 0.67
P (2/4) $6.80 | ROI 0.85
S (2/4) $5.00 | ROI 0.62
-----------------------
T (5/12) $17.20 | ROI 0.72

[PaceAdvantage]

BTW, there are eight horses left on the list...

[davew]

I think you forgot Shackleford and Game on Dude
(just kidding)


This does kind of remind me of an old system from years ago that involved having 'horses' in your personal stable that you bet to win from now on....

it was too hard then... but now with computers, finding horses that race all over the country/world is so much easier.

The gist of the system was some horses finish their career with positive ROIs... and if you have a group of them from early in their careers, you will get some great scores.

[PaceAdvantage]

I have another one going today:

He's Had Enough in the 9th at Hollywood 9/2 ML

[PaceAdvantage]

Fifth...ugh...

BB Record:

Bets 5
W(1/5) $5.40 | ROI 0.54
P (2/5) $6.80 | ROI 0.68
S (2/5) $5.00 | ROI 0.50
-----------------------
T (5/15) $17.20 | ROI 0.57

[classhandicapper]

Classhandicapper is not going to be happy about this.

I haven't played any of the horses on his list, though I might have expected a few to run better if spotted well.

In fact, the only race on the list I also played was the Cigar. In that one I used Coil with Stay Thirsty (box) trying to beat Groupie Doll (who had a terrific race against the bias and ran great again against much better).

I thought Coil's last race in the Sprint was an easy toss. Before that he looked like was coming around and getting better. So I thought he was better than his speed figures coming in suggested and might jump up a little and get into the thick of it.

Stay Thirsty would have been an easy toss for me in the Classic off his easy rail trip in the GC on a good rail day, but I think Serling had it right when he suggested that the horse had run well against MUCH better. So you couldn't really toss him in that much easier spot. Even if he wasn't as good as he looked on paper, he was good in that field anyway. IMO he had another pretty good trip though to win.

Groupie Doll was an obvious major contender, but the Cigar was an afterthought, it was a mile, and the Cigar field was way better than the field she beat in the filly sprint. So at that price, I took a shot against her. I had no problem ripping up that ticket. I was rooting for her down the stretch. I think I made a good play, but she is a darn good filly. :ThmbUp: It's a shame she didn't get the bob. IMO, she was best.

[classhandicapper]

I think you forgot Shackleford and Game on Dude
(just kidding)




I played Shackleford in his last start, but it was such a small bet it practically doesn't count. His race in the Mile was an easy toss.

[letswastemoney]

I have another one going today:

He's Had Enough in the 9th at Hollywood 9/2 ML
I always thought the inside trip might have helped He's Had Enough in the Breeders' Cup...although like others have said it was probably just race dynamics that led to Shanghai Bobby holding on.

[NY BRED]

Trinniberg certainly deserves credit breking from post 9 and running
almost to the track record.

Equally important, he elininated my losses for the two days
and placed me in a profit positon in the pick 3's and 4's.

:) :ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

Hey, almost forgot about this (I wonder why...lol)

Another from my list goes today...John Scott...7th at Santa Anita

[lamboguy]

Hey, almost forgot about this (I wonder why...lol)

Another from my list goes today...John Scott...7th at Santa Anita
there was one of them that won this week, a short priced Pletcher horse, owned by Stonerstreet

[PaceAdvantage]

Justin Phillip is going in today's 5th at Santa Anita...another off the list...