Fall Highweight Handicap

[PaceAdvantage]

Looking over one of my favorite races of the year (well, it used to be when they actually carried HIGH weight...lol), I can't get over how good of a bet This Ones for Phil appears to be here.

This horse appears to enjoy a pretty good pace advantage and should get the lead. He's been running competitive and mostly superior numbers lately compared to the rest of the field. He's got Dominguez on board. And he gets in light at 130... ;)

I think the only thing I'm missing is that there is no way he's 5-1 like he is on the morning line. I have to think that ML is way off. If it's not...hell, if he's 2-1 or higher he's a definite win bet for me.

Thoughts?

[Zydeco]

Do you think the layoff hurts him? The works look ok to me. I don't think you will get the price now with the scratch, right?

[PaceAdvantage]

He's shown the ability to win off of long layoffs in the past...the layoff doesn't concern me.

But that scratch certainly does... :lol:

[Robert Fischer]

:4:

I don't have a super strong opinion here. It's a pretty even field.


I think the :4:-Mine Over Matter has as good a chance as anyone. Last race whether it was Dominguez, or the layoff... He ran maybe the best race of his life with a good 1,2 punch of early and late pace. Might be the key horse to contend at a fair price.


The :2: may be at the mercy of the race shape. That last race saw the speed all run away in a pack... Hard horse to read.


I like your :1: - if he fires. Dutrow is a doing OK lately. The barn may have been hotter in may, and he even got that trademark work on april 27th, but apparently had some issues, and didn't particularly fire.


:6: longshot is probably my 4th choice here. Has some tactical speed. Was set to win last time putting away frontrunners until favored Hymn Book swept by top of stretch.

[Robert Fischer]

tri
46 all all , all 46 all, all 46 46
ex 4all bx

25win 60plc 200shw on 4

[PaceAdvantage]

Well, at least the odds prevented me from making a play on the 1....6-5 was way too low...even after the scratch of the 5, whom I really didn't like at all anyway...

[Zydeco]

the odds kept creeping up...was waiting for that last flash for him to go to 2-1

[Robert Fischer]

Well, at least the odds prevented me from making a play on the 1....6-5 was way too low...even after the scratch of the 5, whom I really didn't like at all anyway...

you were right about the pace.
The 2 maybe had better position than expected.

[MaTH716]

Well, at least the odds prevented me from making a play on the 1....6-5 was way too low...even after the scratch of the 5, whom I really didn't like at all anyway...

I personally thought that Ramon was a little heavy on the pedal. Now there is a possiblity that it didn't matter anyway, Javy had CE in a great spot and Phil might have been a little short off the layoff. But Ramon certainly didn't do him any favors with the pace.

[cj]

Tough to argue weight has much effect on time when looking at that race.