First POst (Speed Favoring Breeders CUp)

[awrobe01]

I am a new poster on here though a long time reader. I am a big time horse racing fan from louisville kentucky who has been around the sport scince I was 5 years old. I grew up across the street from Churchill Downs where I would be at 5-7 times a week with my grandmother after she retired. Many great memories watching the sport of kings.

My first post is going to talk about a topic that I don't think has got enough play. At the Breeders Cup this year (Santa Anita) speed was unstoppable. I am asking why this hasn't been talked about more. I can only remember two horses closing on the two day card. ONe of which was much the best in Groupie Doll. Espically in the Ladies Classic. I thought MMA was the best horse. She ran into a very talented horse that won on the front end. I don't care so much about the fractions. Nothing was closing on this day. Remember Shanghi Bobby. He cooked early and looked dead at the top of the stretch. Look at Fort Larde

n. He wasn't the kind of horse that would of won this race on a fair playing track. So my hat goest off to horses like ExcutivePrivalage, Mucho Macho Man, MMA, and others. Horses that came very close to winning comming off the pace. I don't think this topic has got enough play. I am really looking forward to the up and comming year with horses like Much Macho Man, MMA, and Animal Kingdom.

On a side note: I am biased to Churchill but I just don't understand how it is fair to have the World Championships at a track that plays so kindly to speed. I think it should be at a fair playing track if you really want to determine the best horse in each division.

[pandy]

I wrote about this in a earlier thread and I couldn't agree with you more. The sport's most prestigious races should not be raced over a speed biased track. The track favored horses that either were on the lead or sitting second. As I mentioned in my post, the Breeders Cup should take this into strong consideration when they choose future venues.

I would tell Santa Anita, either hire someone who knows how to condition a racetrack and make it fair to all styles or you will not get the Breeders Cup.

Years ago when Charles Hayward took over as CEO of NYRA he fired the track super and hired someone else, told him that he wanted a fair track with no biases and all three NYRA dirt tracks improved and are among the fairest and best dirt surfaces in the sport.

[horses4courses]

I am a new poster on here though a long time reader. I am a big time horse racing fan from louisville kentucky who has been around the sport scince I was 5 years old. I grew up across the street from Churchill Downs where I would be at 5-7 times a week with my grandmother after she retired. Many great memories watching the sport of kings.

My first post is going to talk about a topic that I don't think has got enough play. At the Breeders Cup this year (Santa Anita) speed was unstoppable. I am asking why this hasn't been talked about more. I can only remember two horses closing on the two day card. ONe of which was much the best in Groupie Doll. Espically in the Ladies Classic. I thought MMA was the best horse. She ran into a very talented horse that won on the front end. I don't care so much about the fractions. Nothing was closing on this day. Remember Shanghi Bobby. He cooked early and looked dead at the top of the stretch. Look at Fort Larde

n. He wasn't the kind of horse that would of won this race on a fair playing track. So my hat goest off to horses like ExcutivePrivalage, Mucho Macho Man, MMA, and others. Horses that came very close to winning comming off the pace. I don't think this topic has got enough play. I am really looking forward to the up and comming year with horses like Much Macho Man, MMA, and Animal Kingdom.

On a side note: I am biased to Churchill but I just don't understand how it is fair to have the World Championships at a track that plays so kindly to speed. I think it should be at a fair playing track if you really want to determine the best horse in each division.

Churchill has, also, had it's issues with speed biases for Breeders' Cups.
Street Sense in the Juvenile comes to mind, and that year was referred to as completely biased on the front end.
It's a problem with dirt tracks when they are "specially prepared" for big race days - they often leave the closers behind.

[Some_One]

MMM was on FL's back down the backstretch...I really don't think there was a horse who should have won, but didn't because of the track. Sure some horses just didn't take to the track (because they were poly's types or like deeper surfaces), some who didn't get the lead early and shut down because of that (see Game on Dude and a couple from the Sprint). S-Bobby might be a bad example because I think Rosie was right where she said he slowed when he got the lead at the top of the lane and waited, so it looked like he was staggering, the fact his I think most of the others who ran with him were up the track.

Horses who are closers, are usually the best horse in the field or a slow horse and the good horses just wasted too much energy early, think about it, someone like Ron The Greek gave FL and MMM a 3 second headstart or so with a half mile to go, that means for him to win, he needs to run the last 50 seconds of the race 3 seconds faster than FL and MMM, and that isn't easy unless the two conditions I gave above occur (it did happen on Big Cap day though IMO)

[nijinski]

I think many here will agree with that .
Probably would be nice to get away from Santa Anita for some years ahead. Can't beat the weather though.
How much is the man in charge of the crew that maintains the surface responsible for the bias ?

[Some_One]

I think many here will agree with that .
Probably would be nice to get away from Santa Anita for some years ahead. Can't beat the weather though.
How much is the man in charge of the crew that maintains the surface responsible for the bias ?

Where do you go, back to CD? again? the last two years, Belmont had a hurricane and a snowstorm on BC weekend. Noone else seems to be in the running.

[nijinski]

Where do you go, back to CD? again? the last two years, Belmont had a hurricane and a snowstorm on BC weekend. Noone else seems to be in the running.

Seems the times at SA were very fast . I thought they were working on this problem for a while.

[horses4courses]

Been a while since it's been in Florida......and what about Fairgrounds in New Orleans?

All the same, Belmont and Churchill both do a terrific job, and shouldn't go for long without hosting.

[thespaah]

Attention all. The BC is POT COMMITTED to Santa Anita. The beef is with the tracks superintendent. JMHO.

[Cholly]

Years ago when Charles Hayward took over as CEO of NYRA he fired the track super and hired someone else, told him that he wanted a fair track with no biases and all three NYRA dirt tracks improved and are among the fairest and best dirt surfaces in the sport.[/QUOTE]

They'd never get Baffert's permission to make those kinds of changes in SoCal.

[jorcus99]

I am a new poster on here though a long time reader. I am a big time horse racing fan from louisville kentucky who has been around the sport scince I was 5 years old. I grew up across the street from Churchill Downs where I would be at 5-7 times a week with my grandmother after she retired. Many great memories watching the sport of kings.

My first post is going to talk about a topic that I don't think has got enough play. At the Breeders Cup this year (Santa Anita) speed was unstoppable. I am asking why this hasn't been talked about more. I can only remember two horses closing on the two day card. ONe of which was much the best in Groupie Doll. Espically in the Ladies Classic. I thought MMA was the best horse. She ran into a very talented horse that won on the front end. I don't care so much about the fractions. Nothing was closing on this day. Remember Shanghi Bobby. He cooked early and looked dead at the top of the stretch. Look at Fort Larde

n. He wasn't the kind of horse that would of won this race on a fair playing track. So my hat goest off to horses like ExcutivePrivalage, Mucho Macho Man, MMA, and others. Horses that came very close to winning comming off the pace. I don't think this topic has got enough play. I am really looking forward to the up and comming year with horses like Much Macho Man, MMA, and Animal Kingdom.

On a side note: I am biased to Churchill but I just don't understand how it is fair to have the World Championships at a track that plays so kindly to speed. I think it should be at a fair playing track if you really want to determine the best horse in each division.

This was not the worst BC bias that I have seen. The Cat Thief year at Gulfstream, and the one at Woodbine come to mind. The problem with adjusting tracks for bias is that it seems very hard to do without screwing up the track. The first thing you want is a safe track, and as far as I know everyone walked off this one in good shape. You have to give give them credit for that. My general feeling about track bias is that it affects cheap horses more than Grade 1 types. Good horses tend to run through the bias unless it it is real bad. In this case maybe you are giving up a length or two but for the most part the resuts were pretty much to form.

[burnsy]

Been a while since it's been in Florida......and what about Fairgrounds in New Orleans?

All the same, Belmont and Churchill both do a terrific job, and shouldn't go for long without hosting.
Totally agree. That was the whole intention of having this thing to begin with. You get different regions with differing surfaces...you know, kind of adding fairness to the picture and juicing a local economy. These BC people may know horse racing but they don't know big time sports events at all. Having it at the same places and having "special rules" changes (lasix) just waters the thing down. The years they ran on rubber were useless results and a joke if you tried betting the dirt horses. Gee, i wonder why the east coast cleaned up this year? Oh yeah, they had the best actual dirt horses!
Its hard to blame anyone for that surface, the weather and conditions make it a speed track. I'm 50 and its been this way since i can remember. That was one of the reasons they put "poly" in there and that was even worse when it would not drain right. Then the track was pretty much useless. I heard they added sand to try and deepen the track but its still speed favoring many days. Someone else pointed out that Churchill has had the same deal on big days. All the tracks used to do that for the big days....NYRA does the best job of keeping the track the same everyday. Its nice when good horses break records, but when it happens every other race...its a problem. At Santa Anita the grass course is pretty much the same deal....another reason to move around. The weather is great but rain is part of this game. I think they would get more people to show up and more interest if it moved around...it looked pretty empty on Friday. Thats another issue all together....the format. That sucks now too....one day, 8 or 9 solid races. We don't need 5 horse fields where maidens win called the "Breeders Cup"...an embarrassment..forget the track super...who with half a brain........runs this thing (breeders cup)? They keep promoting the same type stooges in that outfit. Its about half as good as when it started.......so thats not the tracks supers fault...its bad management! Most professional sports understand that people can see through if its fair or not, these people don't have a clue and WE LEGALLY BET ON THIS!. Its pretty bad when you have to "weed out" races you want no part of when its supposed to be the best day. :bang:

[Some_One]

Years ago when Charles Hayward took over as CEO of NYRA he fired the track super and hired someone else, told him that he wanted a fair track with no biases and all three NYRA dirt tracks improved and are among the fairest and best dirt surfaces in the sport.

They'd never get Baffert's permission to make those kinds of changes in SoCal.[/QUOTE]

Play closers on the Aqu inner or Bel dirt and see how fast you money disappears. Sar and Aqu outer are probably the 2 best examples of non hard/fast tracks, anywhere else I can think that can host a BC (GP, Mth, OP, CD) I consider hard and fast tracks just like SA

[pandy]

I don't mean to put all the blame on the track super. I agree, as some have mentioned, ultimately it's the track management that is responsible.

[sammy the sage]

Would rather HAVE a speed bias than a DEAD rail any time...

Funny to have a Churchhill player whining...

[pandy]

Would rather HAVE a speed bias than a DEAD rail any time...

Funny to have a Churchhill player whining...

For the Breeders Cup there shouldn't be either a speed bias or dead rail. There's no reason why a track like Santa Anita, that has spent a fortune on its surface, can't figure out how to fix the surface so it's fair to all styles.

And in my opinion a speed bias is even worse than a dead rail because a jockey can keep a horse off the rail.

[awrobe01]

I am Churchill biased. There have been some times when there are biased within the track. I would say that 75%/80% of the time the track plays fair on the big days. There have been exceptions. Very Very fair playing turf course when the rail is not up. Which it never is on big days. I have watch racing a long time just like alot of others on here. I just don't think there is a better turf course out there then Churchill. Just my opinon.

Look guys I know Kentucky is not a destination for most Americans. Places like Flordia, California, and New York have alot more to offer as far as entertainment. That's what makes Churchill the perfect place for Breeders Cup. Horse Racing is the biggest thing we have here. Nothing else even comes close. In these others states I am talking about horse racing is popular to horse racing fans. In Kentucky we are all horse racing fans. Horse racing is a holiday around here. School is out and non racing enthusist not like ourself on this forum save thier vacation for big racing weeks. It's hard to explain to anyone that hasn't lived here. It's like we all feel as though we are apart of it. NO just enthusist like ourselfs. But your average person that looks at big racing events as though they are hollidays. Churchille gets over 100,000 people for breeders cup and it is usually chilly here in November. Places like California get 80,000 and they have great weather.

Churchill is fairly centered in the country. It's a place East Coast, West Coast, and horses from the South can meet for the Championship. It's most of the time a fair playing track. It has one of the best drainage systems in the country. It's located in the thourobred capital of the world. After the remoble it now has the perfect mix of old world and new world. Call me biased but I just don't know of any other track where the championship of thourbobred racing should be held at.

[thespaah]

Years ago when Charles Hayward took over as CEO of NYRA he fired the track super and hired someone else, told him that he wanted a fair track with no biases and all three NYRA dirt tracks improved and are among the fairest and best dirt surfaces in the sport.

They'd never get Baffert's permission to make those kinds of changes in SoCal.[/QUOTE]
C'mon...Is that the truth? Or is that just a conspiracy theory?
Here's an idea. How about the trainers adjust their training methods to the track? The horses that cannot adjust can race elsewhere.

[thespaah]

For the Breeders Cup there shouldn't be either a speed bias or dead rail. There's no reason why a track like Santa Anita, that has spent a fortune on its surface, can't figure out how to fix the surface so it's fair to all styles.

And in my opinion a speed bias is even worse than a dead rail because a jockey can keep a horse off the rail.
Yep..Unless a more experienced rider does pin a horse down on the rail in order to get an advantage.
Here's my take.
The consensus here is that NYRA appears to do yeoman's work keeping their dirt surfaces as fair as possible.
So, why is it not possible for other track supers to take a page from NYRA's book?
I am a firm believer in following the successful. In other words, watch what the best do, then do it yourself.
It's a can't miss!

[thespaah]

I thinki the BC should take a step back and lok at their scheduling.
Perhaps the best idea is to move it up a few weeks. Run it in early October instead of what qualifies in the Northern climes, "near winter".
Yes, an earlier BC would screw up some fall meets. IMportant stake races would have to be moved around and leave their traditional dates. Keeneland management may have to move their meeting around to accomodate the BC.
Too difficult? At this juncture, with all the problems the industry is having just getting people in the door, perhaps a radical adjustment is just the right cure.
The BC should be featured in every major market around the nation!
The best way to do this is to work the event in when the weather is still relatively warm throughout the Lower 48 and of course in Toronto, ON.
Let's have a discussion on this.
What does everyone think about moving the BC to early October?

[awrobe01]

Early October I think is a great idea. Weather in Louisville is usually better in early October then early November. That is the only and I say only pro that California has.

[Steve R]

Been a while since it's been in Florida......and what about Fairgrounds in New Orleans?

All the same, Belmont and Churchill both do a terrific job, and shouldn't go for long without hosting.
No denying Belmont is terrific, but personally I hate to see dirt routes at the BC run around one turn.

[thespaah]

No denying Belmont is terrific, but personally I hate to see dirt routes at the BC run around one turn.
AT CD the Juvenile and Juvy Filly are run at One mile around one turn.
I don't think it really makes a difference, one turn,or two turns.

[SharpCat]

AT CD the Juvenile and Juvy Filly are run at One mile around one turn.
I don't think it really makes a difference, one turn,or two turns.


The Juvenile and Juvy Filly are run at 1-1/16 around 2 turns at CD.

[cj]

While I think the track was somewhat speed favoring, I don't really think it was more than a secondary factor in the results. I've seen blatant speed biases and horses like Groupie Doll don't win on those tracks.

How was Street Sense an example or a speed bias?

[CincyHorseplayer]

There weren't stone cold quitters winning or even finishing in the money.In the classic only Flat Out had recent numbers that could've won the race but he proved again at a different venue that he's a fraud outside of NY.Two winners had huge pace AND speed figures coming into the rac, Beholder and Trinniberg.I covered this in depth after the BC.I just didn't see anything absolutely strange or ridiculous happen on either day.

[thespaah]

The Juvenile and Juvy Filly are run at 1-1/16 around 2 turns at CD.
ok...I thought they used the one mile chute there.
In any event, I don't think it matters. All horses in the respective fields run under the same conditions.

[gfnut]

I think the track and super learned there lesson on preparing the track for the BC. If you saw the horse's coming back to the barn, they were covered in sand. The one's running behind the front runners. I don't think any of the come from behind horses could have run their normal race with that much sand being thrown in ther faces. It gave the front runners an advantage. Sand and dirt in your face are too different things.

[Sysonby]

Don't necessarily disagree with what's being said, just wanted to point out that the South American horse closed from last in the marathon.

[maclr11]

Lets look a little closer at the Breeders Cup Results on the dirt
Beholder got loose on the lead
Hightail rallied to win
Royal Delta was loose and much the best horse
Calidiscopio rallied in a race that shouldnt really count

Fort Larned and Mucho Macho Man ran away from the field and theyve been at or near the top of the Classic division all years
Trinniberg stalked Sum of the Parts and went past him
Tapizar rallied in a really weirdly run race
Shangai Bobby was much the best horse and stalked the leaders
Groupie Doll stalked and was so much the best

Now for 2nd and 3rd
Executive Privilege and DOJ were the obvious next best horses
Merit Man was the 3/5 favorite and dueled, Sweet Shirley Mae closed
Include Me Out and My Miss Aurelia were logical contenders that came from just off of it
The marathon was silly
Flat Out rallied for third
Sum of the Parts hung on for fourth, but The Lumber Guy and Smiling Tiger were both closing
Rail Trip and John Scott both rallied
He's Had Enough and Capo Bastone rallied
Dust and Diamonds was speed, Switch rallied

Now look at all the speed that should have made use of the positive speed bias that did not
Shackleford
Emcee
Title Contender
Kauai Katie


So the speed bias may just have been the natural speed bias that is naturally occuring in american racing
At no point were faint hearted sprinters winning classics
I felt that the track was not an issue, Royal Delta wins that race no matter where she sits, Groupie Doll wins from anywhere, Fort Larned and MMM probably run 1-2 if they get other trips as well
The other days surronding the Breeders Cup also did not prove to be overtly speed biased.

[Some_One]

Lets look a little closer at the Breeders Cup Results on the dirt
Beholder got loose on the lead
Hightail rallied to win
Royal Delta was loose and much the best horse
Calidiscopio rallied in a race that shouldnt really count

Fort Larned and Mucho Macho Man ran away from the field and theyve been at or near the top of the Classic division all years
Trinniberg stalked Sum of the Parts and went past him
Tapizar rallied in a really weirdly run race
Shangai Bobby was much the best horse and stalked the leaders
Groupie Doll stalked and was so much the best

Now for 2nd and 3rd
Executive Privilege and DOJ were the obvious next best horses
Merit Man was the 3/5 favorite and dueled, Sweet Shirley Mae closed
Include Me Out and My Miss Aurelia were logical contenders that came from just off of it
The marathon was silly
Flat Out rallied for third
Sum of the Parts hung on for fourth, but The Lumber Guy and Smiling Tiger were both closing
Rail Trip and John Scott both rallied
He's Had Enough and Capo Bastone rallied
Dust and Diamonds was speed, Switch rallied

Now look at all the speed that should have made use of the positive speed bias that did not
Shackleford
Emcee
Title Contender
Kauai Katie


So the speed bias may just have been the natural speed bias that is naturally occuring in american racing
At no point were faint hearted sprinters winning classics
I felt that the track was not an issue, Royal Delta wins that race no matter where she sits, Groupie Doll wins from anywhere, Fort Larned and MMM probably run 1-2 if they get other trips as well
The other days surronding the Breeders Cup also did not prove to be overtly speed biased.

Thanks for going thru the card to do this, you can also add that the West coast horses didnt fire for the most part because they were overrated, I guess they should only race in G1's with less than 6 horses like they do most of the year.

[awrobe01]

O.k I am not trying to tear your post apart it just doesn't reflect the races that I watch on Breeders Cup Day.

I hope you don't take offense. These are just my observations. They very well could be incorrect observations. I love to talk and argue sports and horse racing. This is the first time I have been able to discuss horse racing on a forum. So when I disagree with some one I am not trying to disrespect them I just love talking sports and espically horses with others that have the same passion as me.

Starting from the top
* I wouldn't nesscarly say Beholder got loose on the front end. Kaui Katie dueled her into the first turn before backing off a little. Kaui Katie was within a length of her all the way down the backstretch. I call getting loose be out in front by 2-3 lengths with no pressure until the stretch.
*Hightail was within a length and a half of the lead along with every other horse in a compacted 5 horse field.
*That was one of the first times I have seen Royal Delta go to the lead. I think a big part of it was that they knew how the track was playing. She had to go fast to have that postion. Still was able to hold on.
* I agree that Calidiscopio win shouldn't count. Him and grassy were the only two horses that should of even been running in a marathon race like that. Those races are all about stamina which many American horses don't have.

* Fort larden was not a top notch G1 horse throughout the year. He won one big race at Saratoga in which that track was also playing to speed and he had everything his way.
*Trinniberg was within a head of the lead the entire backstetch run. At times it looked like he was in front. I would call that a front running win. The Lumber guy is the horse that stalked. He was the best horse in the race. Hard to run down top Sprinters on a speed favoring track. Sum of the Parts held on for fourth. He was not the fourth best horse in the race in my opnion. In my opinon he to benefited from being on the lead with Trinneberg.
*Tapizar was right on the lead. I wouldn't call that ralling
*Dust and Diamonds was just up against special horse in my opinon. Still held on very well for second.
*I wouldn't say Flat Out Closed. He finished third but I would say a far back third. Much Macho Man was not that much better then Flat Out on a fair playing track throughout the year. Flat Out and MMM were pretty equal in talent all year. Speed biased help MMM and help Fort Larden hold of MMM.
* Great performance by Smiling Tiger. But never really a threat to the top two that were near or on the lead.
*Executive Privelage (I was not a fan of going into the race) was much the best. Just ran into a speed bias.
* Title Contender I don't remember what happened
* Kaui Katie was not abel to get to the lead. I also don't think she can get that distance. Those two factors together added up to her performance.
*Shakelford: Broke bad just as Game on Dude did. We all know that if speed horses break bad it is very difficult for them to perform well. I don't know why that is. Must be a mental thing with them.
*Emcee: He is one that has no excuses outside of that they were cooking early. But Tapizar was dueling with him and won the race.
*Shanghi Bobby gets beat at any other track. Rosie went way to fast with him early. One part of me wants to think that he is a super horse being able to overcome cooking early. The other part of me knows how fast the track was playing. No way he should of won that race cutting out the fractions he did. I think he is the best example of how the track was playing to speed.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Great post Mac.If you don't mind,let me tack on my post from the day after the BC because between the two of us I think we covered it well.

Rod




Race1-The winner had a 93-85(pace/speed).The 1 had a 83-87 and the 3 on synthetic back in July ran a 95-87.No surprise.

Race 3-Politically Correct was 5 lengths off the pace at the 1st call and won.Private Zone went grudgingly because he had a 120-103 to throw at everybody.Closer won,high pace sticks.

Race 5-does anybody doubt Groupie Doll's superiority or was her performance a bias created fluke!

Race 6-every horse in this race had at least 5 Quirin speed points.Unless there was a ghost closer someone with a few lengths of the pace was going to win this.

Race 8-there were 4 horses in here that ran a 90 or better final figure.One of them won.How did 2 closers with 70's figures get so close if the track was speed favoring?

Race 10-ton of speed in here.had a 51 x 2 probable pace.Here are the speed-pace figures of the top 3;

win-119-109

place-101-109

show-96-99

Here we have a horse that can run early faster than anybody and run as fast as them late.Shocker.

Race 12-Fort Larned was 1 of 4 horses able to run 108 or better and had done so 4 times.Pace/Speed figs top 4;

4)106-110

5)111-108

11)113-110

2)107-109

He gets an uncontested lead and wins.





Lets look a little closer at the Breeders Cup Results on the dirt
Beholder got loose on the lead
Hightail rallied to win
Royal Delta was loose and much the best horse
Calidiscopio rallied in a race that shouldnt really count

Fort Larned and Mucho Macho Man ran away from the field and theyve been at or near the top of the Classic division all years
Trinniberg stalked Sum of the Parts and went past him
Tapizar rallied in a really weirdly run race
Shangai Bobby was much the best horse and stalked the leaders
Groupie Doll stalked and was so much the best

Now for 2nd and 3rd
Executive Privilege and DOJ were the obvious next best horses
Merit Man was the 3/5 favorite and dueled, Sweet Shirley Mae closed
Include Me Out and My Miss Aurelia were logical contenders that came from just off of it
The marathon was silly
Flat Out rallied for third
Sum of the Parts hung on for fourth, but The Lumber Guy and Smiling Tiger were both closing
Rail Trip and John Scott both rallied
He's Had Enough and Capo Bastone rallied
Dust and Diamonds was speed, Switch rallied

Now look at all the speed that should have made use of the positive speed bias that did not
Shackleford
Emcee
Title Contender
Kauai Katie


So the speed bias may just have been the natural speed bias that is naturally occuring in american racing
At no point were faint hearted sprinters winning classics
I felt that the track was not an issue, Royal Delta wins that race no matter where she sits, Groupie Doll wins from anywhere, Fort Larned and MMM probably run 1-2 if they get other trips as well
The other days surronding the Breeders Cup also did not prove to be overtly speed biased.

[maclr11]

A Speed Bias isn't displayed by favorites running the races they should
It's displayed by results that make no sense because horses make the lead
So in this case there really is no examples
You might have had to been close to the pace, but you have to be close to the pace in 75 percent of races in America.