Having trouble shaking this one.....

[Track Phantom]

I know this will sound like redboarding....it's not. I'll post a screen shot of my bet on Monday. (Can't get previous days bets from Twin Spires late at night).

I'm not sure whether I should be happy or sick to my stomach. I played a $96 pick 6 at Hollywood today.

4 / 4,5,6,8 / 1 / 3,7 / 1,5,6 / 4,8 = $96.00

It ran 4 (7-5) / 2 (20-1) / 1 (3-2) / 7 (3-1) / 5 (10-1) / 8 (4-1).

I ended up with 5 out of 6 four times ($3200). I missed the #2 in the 2nd leg. Now, the 2 was 20-1 and the highest priced winner in the sequence and a horse I didn't like nor dislike. I just skimmed that race quickly and there wasn't a conviction to throw it in or out. On another day, I might have used him.

So, when you get lucky to hit 5 out of 6 on a relatively small ticket while spending all of 5 minutes putting the ticket together, are you happy or distraught? Or both?

It's just tough since you don't get that close to 6 figure scores everyday.

[judd]

HEY, NO DIFFERENT than playing a lottery number heavy all week then drop it
and it hits :bang::bang::bang::bang::bang:

[Overlay]

First of all, I sympathize with you on not catching 6-of-6, but (in my case) that 5-of-6 payout (especially in light of the wager size, and assuming that I had only briefly skimmed the race) would go a long way toward soothing my regrets.

In my case, even with a brief skim, I'd be able to know/justify why I had left the horse out. If my post-race examination of the horse's PP's didn't turn up anything that I had somehow missed or not given enough weight to, I'd chalk it up to the breaks of the game, unless I was going to start including random longshots or hitting the "ALL" button just for the sake of covering the "what-if" factor, which would increase the cost of tickets (and not just for that race) considerably. The only thing that might have given me pause is the fact that the horse went off at 20-1. Although I wouldn't have known what its exact odds would be when I placed my wager, I'd refresh my memory after the race on whether the horse had been similarly poorly regarded both in the morning line and in my line (which I would think it would have been likely to be). If it was, and if I had rated it as an underlay even at those odds, I wouldn't think anything more about it.

In any event, enough looking in the rearview mirror! Congratulations on a great score!

[jk3521]

Of course if you added that one horse your bet amount would be tripled, does your bankroll allow for that amount of money ? Do you usually play that type of bet? I would kick myself, but it wouldn't put me into deep depression.If I played the Pick Six regularly,maybe. :bang:


P.S.I'm sure that if you really thought that you might hit it ,you would have put more effort into handicapping that race instead of just skimming.

[sammy the sage]

I know this will sound like redboarding....it's not. I'll post a screen shot of my bet on Monday. (Can't get previous days bets from Twin Spires late at night).

I'm not sure whether I should be happy or sick to my stomach. I played a $96 pick 6 at Hollywood today.

4 / 4,5,6,8 / 1 / 3,7 / 1,5,6 / 4,8 = $96.00

It ran 4 (7-5) / 2 (20-1) / 1 (3-2) / 7 (3-1) / 5 (10-1) / 8 (4-1).

I ended up with 5 out of 6 four times ($3200). I missed the #2 in the 2nd leg. Now, the 2 was 20-1 and the highest priced winner in the sequence and a horse I didn't like nor dislike. I just skimmed that race quickly and there wasn't a conviction to throw it in or out. On another day, I might have used him.

So, when you get lucky to hit 5 out of 6 on a relatively small ticket while spending all of 5 minutes putting the ticket together, are you happy or distraught? Or both?

It's just tough since you don't get that close to 6 figure scores everyday.


Terrific really....guess it depends on budget....every extra horse was $24...how many more ould you've taken before you got to the 2...

That said....you shoulda crsuhed the late p/4 as well...

a food for thought....sometimes I'l play an early p/3 w/an an all in a leg like that 2nd....esp. if singling a horse in one leg....hate getting that right and NOT collecting

[raybo]

Well, you just allowed yourself to play 32 more of these bets. Will you use the payout for that, or will you fritter it away?

The winner you missed was either a true contender or not, if you didn't consider him/her that day, why would you consider him/her a contender any other day?

Face it, you missed that horse, not because you "skimmed" but because you didn't have it as a true contender. If you shorted it because you couldn't stomach the additional bet amount, then that would be true any other day also.

[Track Phantom]

The weird part of handicapping the 2nd race is the #2 (PP's below) was hardly impossible to come up with. Blow out win with Talamo, layoff and coming back at a higher level with Talamo up again.

What is irking me is I spent such little time 'capping it. There were only 8 horses in the race and I took four (and left out the favorite). A horse like the 2 is one I would play often but just overlooked it. That is why I said on another day, I may have added it.

http://i968.photobucket.com/albums/ae169/valento07/Pick6miss.jpg


http://i968.photobucket.com/albums/ae169/valento07/HorsemissedinP6.jpg

[Mailman]

Valento,a little off course here but, Were you following the bet live? And if you were, did you consider a pic4 bet? $509 for 50cent. I still think you did a good job.



mailman

[Track Phantom]

Valento,a little off course here but, Were you following the bet live? And if you were, did you consider a pic4 bet? $509 for 50cent. I still think you did a good job.



mailman

One of the few times I didn't play the pick 4. No good reason...just didn't.

[racingfan378]

If it only took you 5 mins to handicap a pick 6, then you cant be kicking yourself in the ass. You should be glad that you cashed $3,200! I would say that's an amazing handicapping job that you did on VERY limited time.

If you got nosed out of a pick 6 that paid six figures then that's another story all together

You overlooked the :2: horse b/c you spent 45 seconds on each race to toss in a quick ticket.

I personally think you would be still bent about losing if it was ANY horse that you missed and went 5 for 6 no matter how long you spent handicapping the card. We can always make an excuse on why we didnt do this or that after the race is over. :bang:

The only way you land this is by tossing the two logical horses that would bounce based on the last race beyer fig which pointed to :3: &:4:

I've attached my spreadsheet based on beyers saying on paper this horse was too slow against this field, but maybe a "B" horse if you thought the race was wide open.

The question is, would you have gone 6 deep in leg two costing you $144?

I've been in love with the excel pick 4 spreadsheet to where I always use the 2 of 4 condition and really have been successful not only hitting pick 4s but saving money at the same time. Maybe that is something you might want to consider for a pick 6 play since you did have two singles come in.

[Stillriledup]

Tough beat Val, i certainly know how you feel, ive had my share of 5 out of 6 horror stories, condolences man.

I know the one reason that i've kicked myself in the past for missing one leg was a quick check of the MORNING LINE.

Ask yourself this. If the Talamo horse you missed was 5-2 ML and not 8-1, would you have used him?

If you would have used him, than you have to always be concious of the morning line, that ML can really screw with a player's head on occasion.

Its a silly reason to get beat in one leg becuase of blindly trusting the ML maker. I know i've been guilty of that on occasion, i did the 'lazy man's' way of handicapping and might have went 4 deep in a leg and just used the top ML choices without thinking about it twice or even conciously addressing that that was what i was doing.

[menifee]

I know this will sound like redboarding....it's not. I'll post a screen shot of my bet on Monday. (Can't get previous days bets from Twin Spires late at night).

I'm not sure whether I should be happy or sick to my stomach. I played a $96 pick 6 at Hollywood today.

4 / 4,5,6,8 / 1 / 3,7 / 1,5,6 / 4,8 = $96.00

It ran 4 (7-5) / 2 (20-1) / 1 (3-2) / 7 (3-1) / 5 (10-1) / 8 (4-1).

I ended up with 5 out of 6 four times ($3200). I missed the #2 in the 2nd leg. Now, the 2 was 20-1 and the highest priced winner in the sequence and a horse I didn't like nor dislike. I just skimmed that race quickly and there wasn't a conviction to throw it in or out. On another day, I might have used him.

So, when you get lucky to hit 5 out of 6 on a relatively small ticket while spending all of 5 minutes putting the ticket together, are you happy or distraught? Or both?

It's just tough since you don't get that close to 6 figure scores everyday.

You should be happy.

Not to redboard either- but I had a 5/6 that has left me sleepless for a few nights - so I know the feeling. It was on Breeders Cup day. I put $4704 into 5 tickets using the ABC method made easy by Formulator. To make a long story short - the singles were Wise Dan, Shanghai Bobby and Game on Dude. The singles were backed up with C picks. Fort Larned, Pool Play and Mucho Macho Man were the C backups in the Classic. I spread deep in the races I thought were wide open. I hit the Turf Sprint and Breeders Cup Turf by going very deep. I also went 7 deep in the sprint which I thought was wide open. For some reason, I used all the logical candidates except Trinniberg. You know the rest. Hit 5 out of 6 on the C back up ticket to Fort Larned. Still made a nice profit because I had it 7 times, but could not believe I left Trinniberg off the ticket. Thought about it for awhile and then re-handicapped the race. If I'm completely honest with myself, I still would not have used him so once you have that perspective it helps.

I think your handicapping is solid, so you should be happy. You did not like the horse and it won - it happens. If you used every horse every time you would not have a bankroll. You will get them next time.

[Si2see]

This reminds me of how I missed a horse a couple years skimming through the SoCal pick6 in a similar situation as yours. The horse was named midshipmen ( turned out to be pretty good ) I thought I had no chance of hitting the ticket played 1x3x3x1x1x1 for $18 total. Ended up hitting 5 of 6, 3 times for $900 bucks total, but pick6 payed 23k !! I was sick for months over that. First tough beat

Sunday I actually tried to put a cheap quick pick6 ticket together at hollywood, and thought I couldn't have hit it for cheap... So I played the pick4 instead and hit it with all in the last leg on a $39 ticket. I actually had the 2 on a wager because of the koriner talamo connections ( which used to be very successful ) and could have had the pick6 looking back at it now.

Stick with it, I'm sure you will hit a life changer soon. Jason

[Track Phantom]

I was trying to think back on other chances at big scores that I missed. I believe I have hit 5 out of 6 four or five times in my life when the pool was 200k or more. When you consider the amounts of wagers I make (and have made) that is a miniscule percentage (even though I don't normally play Pick 6's). 30 years playing the game and only 5 shots at very huge money. That's what is tough. But, it is what it is....

By the way, the one that still sticks with me was at Arlington Park back around 1994 or 1995. They had 250k in a pick 6 carryover and I put in a $32 ticket. In the first leg, I singled a 6-1 ML runner and it was beaten a head bob by the 5-2 favorite. I remember not being upset because I had a few exotics I hit with my single running second. Anyway, hit the remaining 5 legs and had a 40-1 first timer in there. Nobody hit it that day. Obviously, no one would have had it with my 6-1 in the first leg either. That one has stayed with me for nearing 20 years and I remember it like it was yesterday.

[fiveouttasix]

From my experience, having hit 5/6 many times (one from 1992 that I remember like yesterday that prompted my father to start calling me Fiveouttasix)...It always seems to be the race that you went the deepest in that gets you

[jk3521]

Once hit a five of six for $900 investing 8 dollars,no handicapping,using just the Daily News , and once hit a six of six investing $150 dollars, that pick six payed $38!

[Vinnie]

Don't sweat it too much Valento. I have missed several crushers over the years including one back in 2007 where my only longshot pic the #4 Bright Direction (a $90+ dollar horse) beat my single by a nose on the last jump in a long route race. That 5 out of 6 which I had paid about $5600 dollars and I had a $16 dollar ticket. It was a monster carryover on that day for 4.2 million that no one else hit. On a $32.00 ticket I would have had it. I lost on a ticket on 09-16 of this year at Belmont Park when in the first leg the horse that I really liked (Mariel and Kathy) I didn't include because I believed my strongest win selection (Gravitania) would win. Well, as my luck or lack thereof would have it the #4 Gravitania comes out late, gets impeded approximately three different times during the race and still manages to run up for fourth. The #8 Mariel and Kathy wired the field and paid $19.20. I cleaned the rest of the card on a $16 dollar ticket for a 5 of 6. All because I was too cheap to include that horse it cost me my share of 37k... Too bad for me and entirely my fault. I know that I will hit it one of these days. I am still not too happy about that one, and my wife letting me know about it doesn't help things either. :bang:

I know that it is a tough bet to hit, but, nowadays even though it is small output for me, I absolutely will not play less than a $32.00 ticket.

All the BEST Valento. You have to keep plugging away. I am sure that you will bring the house down by hitting a P6 one day soon.... :)