Pro Football is coached by Neanderthal Edsels and the Lamborghini ?

[Rookies]

Uh... this guy:

http://www.thepostgame.com/blog/men-action/201211/how-oregon-coach-chip-kelly-can-spark-moneyball-revolution-nfl

It's an equation involving Talent + Math. You simply have to know probabilities on every choice decision and Kelly does! He, is the wave of the future, where all these Idgit Conservative purists, afraid of their own shadow, are shown the door.

It is based on the Zeus system of probabilities. On my local Bills station, WGR, one of the commentators has been touting this stuff for at least two years.He has mentioned a prior High School practitioner of the art: http://highschool.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=892888, who put the model on the map.

The dumbass Edsels are still coaching virtually everywhere else, but Kelly & Kelley are the standard bearers of the new wave. Only a matter of time before the NFL catches up!

[Valuist]

Its one thing to do that at the high school or even D-1 college level. Even in Division one, only a few of the defenders are fast. But ask anyone who has played or coached in the NFL, the biggest difference is the speed of the defense. Should more NFL coaches go for it on 4th down? Strictly depends on where the ball is. If you are at your own 30 yard line, like Belicheck was 3 years ago against the Colts, you do NOT go for it because the downside is too big. Once you cross the 50 and get into opponent territory, I agree they probably should go for it more. But not on your own side of the field.

[dav4463]

The first time an NFL coach goes for it on 4th and 5 at his own 8 yard line and fails....he may get fired!


I actually tried this strategy using Strat-o-matic, which is a board game that uses stats from real NFL players. It is a very good game and realistic (not John Madden-like video game)...actual stats and probabilities based on play calling by offense and defense and the percentages of rolling dice and checking player cards....

Anyway, in my one game sample...I adopted this strategy for the overmatched 1977 season Chiefs against the 77 Colts....I tried it knowing the Colts were far superior so with the Chiefs I went for it every time, threw more long passes, and did not punt.

My result was Colts 49 Chiefs 7. When I played the same two teams in a more NFL type realistic manner, Colts won 19-7...

Either way, the superior team won, but like I said....it was only a one game try.

[Robert Fischer]

A lot of these coaches, and a lot of these players don't know what the hell they are doing.

There's a market. The game is to do well within the status quo. Adapt, Evolve, Maximize.
Innovation isn't a normal part of the game.

Most of the good coaches/coordinators have gravitated to, or built, winning situations. They need health and momentum and they will contend deep into the playoffs.

Punting - Sure in certain situations you should go for it. The math is more dynamic in reality and would have to be estimated for the real situation. However some of the situations are clear cut.

FGs - same thing. One of the worst plays in football is the long FG. Completely moronic to miss a long FG and give up the field position except for certain half/game-ending situations.

[Robert Fischer]

here's another one - the bottom feeders

A random example = KC.

25th in passing yards , 32nd in pass Rating

salary cap:
QB1 Matt Cassel $7,500,000
WR1 Dwayne Bowe $9,443,000
L.Tackle Brandon Albert $3,217,500

so on this hopeless passing offense... you have $20M cap# on your passing core (QB,WR,LT). :bang::bang::bang:


There's room in a situation like this to do something like a college spread option using athletes at QB.

Then with the $15M extra you could buy 3 impact players on defense.


speaking of defense - When is a bad team going to roll the dice and use all swarming speed in place of the status quo mix of Linebackers and DBs?
It's a passing league, and you aren't making the playoffs with your terrible franchise unless you INNOVATE.

[Valuist]

Probably the dumbest call I've ever seen was Mike Mullarkey of the Jaguars deciding to go for it on 4th and 10 from about midfield with about 2:30 to play in OT. Needless to say, they missed and two plays later a TD pass to Andre Johnson won the game. A tie IS better than a loss. They just handed the game away. :bang:

[Marshall Bennett]

Yeah, I found that interesting....and dumb. :)

Often the difference between good teams and shit, which is what the Jags look like this year.