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Mbreedlo
11-03-2012, 11:53 PM
Hello everyone. I'm a recreational bettor that got hammered this weekend on the Breeders Cup. I was wondering what books you guys would recommend for a beginner to intermediate handicapper that wants to become a winner at this sport. I'm looking for a book that isn't over the top complicated but still has a few things that the general betting public doesn't really understand. I’m looking for a book that is focused on maintaining a longer term winner percentage and maybe one on how to profit off exotic wagers such as pic 3’s and 4’s.

ceejay
11-04-2012, 04:09 PM
one on how to profit off exotic wagers such as pic 3’s and 4’s.
http://books.google.com/books/about/Exotic_Betting.html?id=RP-aAAAACAAJ

Some_One
11-04-2012, 05:03 PM
If you can't pick the winner in one race, chasing P4's will get you broke in no time.

Let start with a redboard review, who did you like in the Classic? why?

LottaKash
11-04-2012, 06:39 PM
I'm looking for a book that isn't over the top complicated but still has a few things that the general betting public doesn't really understand. I’m looking for a book that is focused on maintaining a longer term winner percentage and maybe one on how to profit off exotic wagers such as pic 3’s and 4’s.

In other words you "want it all"....:jump: (not unlike like the rest of us, heehee)

Mbreedlo, welcome to here....

Mbreedlo
11-04-2012, 10:16 PM
Lol yeah I'm an all or nothing kinda guy. I actually do well picking individual races but I try and cut a few corners here and there on the exotics and it always cost me. I usually bet strictly win on horses going off at 4-1 or better but I don't bet enough to really make big money. I know some of you will just say bet more but I want to try and invest a small amount and hit a big score. I know I can't have my cake and eat it but I wanna try to become a better handicapper at winning some pic 3's and 4's. Any good ideas or books?

JustRalph
11-04-2012, 10:52 PM
Lol yeah I'm an all or nothing kinda guy. I actually do well picking individual races but I try and cut a few corners here and there on the exotics and it always cost me. I usually bet strictly win on horses going off at 4-1 or better but I don't bet enough to really make big money. I know some of you will just say bet more but I want to try and invest a small amount and hit a big score. I know I can't have my cake and eat it but I wanna try to become a better handicapper at winning some pic 3's and 4's. Any good ideas or books?

Never forget, it's a game where you are directly competing with the guys around you. You aren't playing against the track, horses, trainers etc.

What tools are your competitors using? If you aren't willing to out work the competition, buy the right tools, sit through a ton of races etc, then you will be behind the curve. Also be advised that doing all that stuff can be lots of fun. But it takes years. Now start reading this board archives back to about 2000 and learn something.

MightBeSosa
11-04-2012, 11:31 PM
By the time you get it all figured out you'll be too old and tired to put it to good use.

duncan04
11-04-2012, 11:39 PM
By the time you get it all figured out you'll be too old and tired to put it to good use.

And they wonder why the sport can't get any new fans!! :D

traynor
11-04-2012, 11:57 PM
Never forget, it's a game where you are directly competing with the guys around you. You aren't playing against the track, horses, trainers etc.

What tools are your competitors using? If you aren't willing to out work the competition, buy the right tools, sit through a ton of races etc, then you will be behind the curve. Also be advised that doing all that stuff can be lots of fun. But it takes years. Now start reading this board archives back to about 2000 and learn something.

There is another view. Rather than outworking the competition, outthink them. While they are spending years endlessly reinventing the wheel, rehashing the same tired, wornout theories, look for new ways to use the information, new patterns in the old data. And always, always think critically and objectively about every aspect of that data.

And take all that "it takes years of hard work" with a grain of salt. That is the kind of mindset that keeps the poor people poor, the wealthy people wealthy, and everyone else working hard to go nowhere.

Most importantly, don't fall into the trap of believing that "precise calculations" and "sophisticated statistical analysis" of fuzzy data makes that data any less fuzzy.

thaskalos
11-05-2012, 12:03 AM
Lol yeah I'm an all or nothing kinda guy. I actually do well picking individual races but I try and cut a few corners here and there on the exotics and it always cost me. I usually bet strictly win on horses going off at 4-1 or better but I don't bet enough to really make big money. I know some of you will just say bet more but I want to try and invest a small amount and hit a big score. I know I can't have my cake and eat it but I wanna try to become a better handicapper at winning some pic 3's and 4's. Any good ideas or books?

1.) HANDICAPPING 101 -- by Brad Free

2.) THE WINNING HORSEPLAYER -- by Andy Beyer

3.) PACE MAKES THE RACE -- by Tom Hambleton and Dick Schmidt

These three books, read in the order listed, will keep you busy for a while...but you won't regret having read them.

Mbreedlo
11-05-2012, 12:26 AM
Thanks everyone for the insight. I know that to be a winning handicapper in the long run you have to put in the time and effort. I just need to learn the appropriate basics and gradually add to them over the years through experience.
I'm still in college so even if it takes me 20 years I will still be ahead of the game in the long run. Thanks again thaskalos for those book suggestions. I will read every one of them before I wager on the races here in Tampa.

JustRalph
11-05-2012, 12:38 AM
I'm still in college so even if it takes me 20 years I will still be ahead of the game in the long run.

Please print this out and hang it somewhere in a frame that you can keep with you. Move it from home to home over the next 20 years and eventually you will be laughing at it.........one way or another..... :lol:

RXB
11-05-2012, 02:06 AM
Hello everyone. I'm a recreational bettor that got hammered this weekend on the Breeders Cup. I was wondering what books you guys would recommend for a beginner to intermediate handicapper that wants to become a winner at this sport. I'm looking for a book that isn't over the top complicated but still has a few things that the general betting public doesn't really understand. I’m looking for a book that is focused on maintaining a longer term winner percentage and maybe one on how to profit off exotic wagers such as pic 3’s and 4’s.

My advice is not to bother with multi-race wagers until you've proven that you've got a handle on individual races.

BTW, while excellent handicapping is critical to success, patience is just as important. Limit the number of bets that you make; no "action" bets. Trust me on this one, please.

raybo
11-05-2012, 08:11 AM
If you want to play exotics, then study the exotics. Wagering is a completely different world than handicapping. The mindset is totally different.

My suggestion is to start with WPS betting, pay attention to the other finishers in each race, why did they not win or how did they get "in the money", replays help with this. Important - track every race you play and every bet you make. Once you can show a flat bet profit with WPS betting, then shift to exotics (I believe that you should not mix WPS with exotics betting until you can show long term profit in both).

Crist's work can help with the exotics, but mostly you have to figure it out on your own through time and sweat and thoroughness. When do you bet, what type of bet do you make, how much do you bet, these are all questions you need to find answers for. Everyone is different, so their methods and approaches must be different, individualized to suit their knowledge, skill set, and, their personality, patience level, disicipline level, and consistency level.

traynor
11-05-2012, 09:50 AM
Thanks everyone for the insight. I know that to be a winning handicapper in the long run you have to put in the time and effort. I just need to learn the appropriate basics and gradually add to them over the years through experience.
I'm still in college so even if it takes me 20 years I will still be ahead of the game in the long run. Thanks again thaskalos for those book suggestions. I will read every one of them before I wager on the races here in Tampa.

Look for racing enthusiasts in college. Especially in Florida. Some of the most highly skilled bettors around are in BIS, MIS, and business majors. Competent research and analytical skills will get you a lot further than trying to apply theories that may have worked in the old days, but now are known (and used by) so many that they lack value.

Like a lot of the things you are probably learning in college. Consider that the reason half the college graduates can't get jobs may be because they have failed to learn anything anyone is willing to pay for, rather than that "it is a bad economy."

racingfan378
11-05-2012, 11:23 AM
Thanks everyone for the insight. I know that to be a winning handicapper in the long run you have to put in the time and effort. I just need to learn the appropriate basics and gradually add to them over the years through experience.
I'm still in college so even if it takes me 20 years I will still be ahead of the game in the long run. Thanks again thaskalos for those book suggestions. I will read every one of them before I wager on the races here in Tampa.

Take some of the best advice I know out there...Never chase your losses, bet the races you DO like and if you are to invest on the pick 3,4,5,6 wagers, bet it when you like it. If you think it is way too tough, then it probably is.

Patience is a virtue with anything in life. There are too many races going on in a day around the USA & Canada. Many places to pick your spots and hammer away. If one track you cant figure out, then dont play that track. I have a long list of tracks personally I just dont enjoy betting b/c I dont win there.

My most successful days have been playing $20 cold exactas, or trifectas....even $10 supers ice cold that have hit. Budgets is also everything. You know what you can afford to lose at the track and/or any type of activity worth spending money on. It's not worth worrying about eating a proper meal, missing out on going out with friends, bouncing a check, or a missing rent payment!

When I first turned 18 and was betting like a kid in a candy store, I really didnt know how to control my bankroll and thought that if I got a form the night before I HAD TO GO to the races b/c I got a form. I also never go to the track the day of w/out having the time to look at the form.

It took me personally a decade to figure out lessons the hard way in this game but I didnt have anyone to teach me. Those books people have told you to read would be a great start and I think "betting thoroughbreds" is probably the best beginner book out there today w/out you feeling like you are taking on too much.

PM me if you need any help anytime. It is a game to where we are betting against each other but just b/c I gave you the Tri that paid $50 and you had $1 on it doesnt mean I didnt have it for $50. Knowledge is everything and some people dont mind sharing!

Good luck at Tampa this year, it is a cute little track and I enjoyed my trip there years ago

eurocapper
11-05-2012, 03:37 PM
Maybe one could reflect on what the term 'handicap' means. To me it suggests eliminating non-contenders not picking winners. When one has the contenders one can choose the appropriate bet(s). Rarely will one horse always stand out, and if it does it will be overbet.

raybo
11-05-2012, 04:36 PM
Maybe one could reflect on what the term 'handicap' means. To me it suggests eliminating non-contenders not picking winners. When one has the contenders one can choose the appropriate bet(s). Rarely will one horse always stand out, and if it does it will be overbet.

Handicap refers to the assignment of odds, therefore promising more return for "lesser" horses, or, assigning weight in favor of "lesser" horses.

A "handicap" in golf, for instance gives strokes to par for lesser players, thus, equalizing the game.

HUSKER55
11-05-2012, 04:42 PM
if you are still in school then may I suggest you get good using a computer and your math skills need sharpened. If you don't do it now you will later and it will cost you.

myhorse1
11-05-2012, 07:46 PM
I'm still in college so even if it takes me 20 years I will still be ahead of the game in the long run. Thanks again thaskalos for those book suggestions. I will read every one of them before I wager on the races here in Tampa.

1. since you are in college you need to concentrate on college--handicapping can be both addictive and TIME CONSUMING- most likely you will succeed in life better with skills mastered in college then at the racetrack(although risk taking and analysis can be very valuable assets).

2. read all posts an this board by jeff platt,dave schwartz
and traynor.

3. for pik 3's and pik 4's read all posts by raybo, thaskalos and markgoldie.


4. for other information check posts by dahoss 9698,trifecta mike and deltalover.

5. for areas you are particularly interested in use the search engine on pace advantage you will get an amazing amount of information.

6. i have left out an amazing group of posters(sorry i cannot credit them all) who you will find for yourself as you search.

Mbreedlo
11-05-2012, 10:39 PM
Wow I didn't expect so many people to respond to my question. Well I'm glad all of you have responded because it all seems like very good information. Like I said I'm in school so I will begin to buy the books that were recommended, read all the post on the forum that interest me and wait to wager on the races once my winter break from school begins.
I think I will strictly bet on individual races for a while and after 100 wagers or so I will reevaluate my performance. If I have a positive ROI, I will then begin to dapple a little in daily doubles and maybe a pic 3 here or there. What is everyone's opinion on bankroll management? I was thinking maybe doing what professional poker players do and stick to a certain number of buy ins(say 50 or so). Once my bankroll grows to a certain number of buy ins I will begin to increase my wagers accordingly. If the number of buy ins decreases below my set amount I will decrease my wagers and try to grind my bankroll back up. What does everyone think about that? Good idea? Bad idea?

Magister Ludi
11-05-2012, 11:09 PM
Wow I didn't expect so many people to respond to my question. Well I'm glad all of you have responded because it all seems like very good information. Like I said I'm in school so I will begin to buy the books that were recommended, read all the post on the forum that interest me and wait to wager on the races once my winter break from school begins.
I think I will strictly bet on individual races for a while and after 100 wagers or so I will reevaluate my performance. If I have a positive ROI, I will then begin to dapple a little in daily doubles and maybe a pic 3 here or there. What is everyone's opinion on bankroll management? I was thinking maybe doing what professional poker players do and stick to a certain number of buy ins(say 50 or so). Once my bankroll grows to a certain number of buy ins I will begin to increase my wagers accordingly. If the number of buy ins decreases below my set amount I will decrease my wagers and try to grind my bankroll back up. What does everyone think about that? Good idea? Bad idea?

Why is Warren Buffett as rich as Croesus and Dr. Edward Thorpe lives in the largest house in Newport Beach, CA?

http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/thorp/tog4.pdf

Proper betting efficiency will yield the optimal geometric growth portfolio.

Mbreedlo
11-07-2012, 10:38 AM
Thanks Magisterludi for that paper. It was pretty informative and insightful. However I have a crucial question that may be hard to answer. How do we as handicappers create our own morning line accurately? What factors are included in this decision? What factors are given more weight then others?

raybo
11-07-2012, 11:05 AM
Thanks Magisterludi for that paper. It was pretty informative and insightful. However I have a crucial question that may be hard to answer. How do we as handicappers create our own morning line accurately? What factors are included in this decision? What factors are given more weight then others?

$64,000 question! The morning lines are created by track personnel, and their methods vary. Some attempt to estimate the chances of winning, while others attempt to predict the way the public will wager. Both estimations vary according to who is creating the line.

You have the same decision to make. Do you create an estimation of a horse's chances of winning, or do you try to predict the public's betting? Or both?

Once you decide what type of line(s) you want to create, then the hard part starts. If you are after chances of winning, you will have to test your handicapping method to find out how your line does against the actual finishing position of those horses. This will take lots of experimentation and lots of time, to get an accurate line.

If you attempt to predict the public's betting, that can be relatively easy or can be relatively hard, depending on the track, surface, class, etc., of the race in question. The public can be quite fickle in their support for ,or against, horses. There are many things to consider when attempting to estimate the way they will wager. Perceived track biases, surface conditions, breeding, trainer and jockey records, class conditions, age, shippers, weight assignments and allowances, last race speed figures and pace figures, power figures (notably, Brisnet's Prime Power figure), class ratings, race ratings, moving up or down in perceived class, shortening up or lengthening out in distance, length of layoffs, work times, distances, rankings, and frequency, so called "experts'" picks and commentaries, etc., etc., etc., all can play a part in how the public bets.

And, then you have to be able to predict how the whales will bet in the final minute before the gate opens (when the majority of bets are placed), and they often cannot be predicted due to their having data and employee judgements and feedback that the vast majority of players don't have access to.

In short, you have hit upon a subject that can determine whether you lose or win, long term. If it was simple, there would be no horse racing because there would be no value to bet into, no matter what your hit rate is.

Magister Ludi
11-07-2012, 12:50 PM
$64,000 question! The morning lines are created by track personnel, and their methods vary. Some attempt to estimate the chances of winning, while others attempt to predict the way the public will wager. Both estimations vary according to who is creating the line.

E.g.,

http://www.aqha.com/Racing/Content-Pages/Racing-and-Wagering/Q-Racing-Aces-and-Handicapping-Information/The-Morning-Line.aspx

"As the official handicapper and morning line maker at Los Alamitos, I often have to explain the two responsibilities. At one of my handicapping seminars, a fan pointed out a difference in the two jobs when he said, 'You have the No. 3 horse selected to win, but you have made the No. 8 horse the 2-1 morning line choice.' The morning line odds don't reflect my preferred selections in a race. My goal as the morning line maker is to predict how the public will wager on a particular race." Mr. Ed Burgart, Los Alamitos

raybo
11-07-2012, 12:58 PM
E.g.,

http://www.aqha.com/Racing/Content-Pages/Racing-and-Wagering/Q-Racing-Aces-and-Handicapping-Information/The-Morning-Line.aspx

"As the official handicapper and morning line maker at Los Alamitos, I often have to explain the two responsibilities. At one of my handicapping seminars, a fan pointed out a difference in the two jobs when he said, 'You have the No. 3 horse selected to win, but you have made the No. 8 horse the 2-1 morning line choice.' The morning line odds don't reflect my preferred selections in a race. My goal as the morning line maker is to predict how the public will wager on a particular race." Mr. Ed Burgart, Los Alamitos

Good post, the link and its contents pretty much tell the story of what the track handicapper/morning line maker faces daily.

shoelessjoe
11-07-2012, 05:10 PM
Calibration Handicapping by Jim Lehane

Betting Thoroughbreds by Davidowitz

Handicapping Magic by Pizzolla

JimG
11-07-2012, 05:18 PM
Never forget, it's a game where you are directly competing with the guys around you. You aren't playing against the track, horses, trainers etc.

What tools are your competitors using? If you aren't willing to out work the competition, buy the right tools, sit through a ton of races etc, then you will be behind the curve. Also be advised that doing all that stuff can be lots of fun. But it takes years. Now start reading this board archives back to about 2000 and learn something.

Excellent advice. If I had it to do over again, I would never have read a mainstream handicapping book. You need to be good and different, or the competition will bury you in the long term. Find a niche, keep it to yourself, and exploit it fully. Always keep looking for the next niche to keep yourself ahead of the curve.

Jim

shoelessjoe
11-07-2012, 07:38 PM
Good advice by both of you

jasperson
11-08-2012, 06:46 AM
I strongly suggest the you get a copy of this book and read it careful. The book was first puplished in 1961 and they covered all the basics of handicapping. They even calculated speed ratings before Andy Beyers. It as somethings that are out dated for example they required the horse must have raced with in 10 days and you would rarely get a bet these days with that as a requirement.
Jack

mlbelang
11-09-2012, 09:56 AM
They might be outdated, but Andy Beyer's books are classic. Read all of them.

Picking Winners just may have been the best thing since sliced bread. When I read that book back in the late 70's I fell in love with horse racing.

mlbelang
11-09-2012, 10:10 AM
back to the topic of M/L odds. I'd be fine with no morning line odds. 3 MTP assess what you've got in your hand and what's on the table (tote). Then either choose to A. Place you're bet you like the value. or B. The horse you like, which you figured would be about 3-1 is the odds on favorite, so you pass the race. the M/L is just false hope.

Then again without M/L odds I could see the novice betting public (couple times a year bettors) having no idea what is going on.

thaskalos
11-09-2012, 12:51 PM
Picking Winners just may have been the best thing since sliced bread. When I read that book back in the late 70's I fell in love with horse racing.

If a beginner elects to read one Andy Beyer book, and he chooses PICKING WINNERS...then he is making a terrible mistake, IMO.

Watching Beyer declare that the speed figures are "the way, the truth and the light"...while at the same time proposing that the pace of the race does not play a role in the race's outcome, can confuse the beginning player -- and may actually do him more harm than good.

Read Beyer's latter works...where his handicapping opinions had changed.

raybo
11-09-2012, 01:01 PM
If a beginner elects to read one Andy Beyer book, and he chooses PICKING WINNERS...then he is making a terrible mistake, IMO.

Watching Beyer declare that the speed figures are "the way, the truth and the light"...while at the same time proposing that the pace of the race does not play a role in the race's outcome, can confuse the beginning player -- and may actually do him more harm than good.

Read Beyer's later works...where his handicapping opinions had changed.

I agree!

Any speed figure that does not include pace is just a numerical representation of the final time, and we already have the final time. So, why represent it as anything else than time?

Track Phantom
11-09-2012, 06:32 PM
Hello everyone. I'm a recreational bettor that got hammered this weekend on the Breeders Cup. I was wondering what books you guys would recommend for a beginner to intermediate handicapper that wants to become a winner at this sport. I'm looking for a book that isn't over the top complicated but still has a few things that the general betting public doesn't really understand. I’m looking for a book that is focused on maintaining a longer term winner percentage and maybe one on how to profit off exotic wagers such as pic 3’s and 4’s.

In my opinion, you should look at mastering three areas:

1. Handicapping
2. Tote board understanding
3. Betting

All three of these areas are dramatically different and require dilligence. Think of driving from the tee box, iron play and putting. While all require you to have a club in your hand, all are different.

1. Handicapping: Learn the nuances of reading a racing form (I would suggest using formulator). Usual progression is learning to read the lines (many years) followed by learning to read between the lines.

2. Tote board understanding: I've made some of my biggest scores by intergating what I expect the tote board to tell me versus what it is actually saying. Now that there is a much higher percentage of smart money in the pools, the tote board (win odds, will pays, etc) should be factored into your decision making. Identify where the smart money is going and decide if it is obvious or worth taking a second look.

3. Betting: The most misunderstood area of the game. There are so many wagering opportunities and it can be tough to know where to invest. How many times have you taken three horses in a pick 3 or pick 4 at odds of 4-5, 15-1 and 20-1 and watch them run 1,2,3 with the 4-5 winning? Lots of material here and this strategy should be commiserate with your bankroll, risk tolerance and goal requirements. If you have a $100 bankroll and are holding that money with clenched fists, you should approach the game differently then someone who has a $10,000 bankroll of fun money.

raybo
11-09-2012, 07:29 PM
I like your golf analogy! I might relate the 2 like this:

1. Tee shot - play/no play decision and basic positioning/mindset regarding your approach to individual races.

2. Fairway play - putting yourself in position to score by handicapping to determine the contenders.

3 Green play - Scoring by determining the proper bet type, the value presented by the odds, and the strength relationship of your individual contenders. In golf, if you're close to the hole, you're in birdie range, and you go for it, if you're not close then you try to give yourself a tap-in 2nd putt if it doesn't drop, you're more conservative. In horse racing if you have a strong top pick, and it's offered at good odds you go for it, if your top pick is not so strong, in relation to your other contenders, then you lower your risk by either betting less, or betting multiple horses for more coverage and a better chance of cashing, even though the profit may not be as high, if the lower odds contender wins.

Both endeavors are strategic in nature, dynamically strategic. The strategy changes with the individual events. And, the process varies, for most players anyway, according to the golf course or the race track, the surface, the class and age of the entrants, etc., because both types of players know they don't play the same.

johnhannibalsmith
11-09-2012, 09:50 PM
Handicapping is a challenge. Betting is an art. Money management is a chore.

At best, I can usually effectively focus in one of the three categories at any time. At one time, I could handle two and be effective in spurts.

The worst mistake I ever made was to fall in love with handicapping. I'm too lazy for chores and my creativity level ebbs and flows these days.

There's a line you have to cross between enjoying the challenge and actually wanting to succeed and it's more of a roadblock than a line for me and the vast majority of bettors that I know, or ever have known.

raybo
11-09-2012, 10:35 PM
Handicapping is a challenge. Betting is an art. Money management is a chore.

At best, I can usually effectively focus in one of the three categories at any time. At one time, I could handle two and be effective in spurts.

The worst mistake I ever made was to fall in love with handicapping. I'm too lazy for chores and my creativity level ebbs and flows these days.

There's a line you have to cross between enjoying the challenge and actually wanting to succeed and it's more of a roadblock than a line for me and the vast majority of bettors that I know, or ever have known.

Well said! There's a lot of truth in that. Challenges are great but there comes a time when one has to make up his/her mind. What's more important to me, the challenge or the end result, the journey or the destination?

What's your destination? How will you get there? When is good enough, good enough?

You don't have to give up the voyage, the challenge, because as soon as you arrive at your destination, you'll find that there's somewhere else you want, or need, to go. Those of us who have reached that destination, have moved on to another.

Stillriledup
11-10-2012, 01:19 AM
Hello everyone. I'm a recreational bettor that got hammered this weekend on the Breeders Cup. I was wondering what books you guys would recommend for a beginner to intermediate handicapper that wants to become a winner at this sport. I'm looking for a book that isn't over the top complicated but still has a few things that the general betting public doesn't really understand. I’m looking for a book that is focused on maintaining a longer term winner percentage and maybe one on how to profit off exotic wagers such as pic 3’s and 4’s.

Read the books, learn the fundamentals. Be observant and remember what you observe. Think about your mistakes and try and learn from them. The toughest part of being a serious bettor is being able to handle the mental ups and downs of the game.

PaceAdvantage
11-10-2012, 01:29 AM
The toughest part of being a serious bettor is being able to handle the mental ups and downs of the game.And here I thought the toughest part was actually making money.