Does the Paper and Pencil handicapper have the edge on BC weekend?

[Capper Al]

Is the advantage of using software to handicap the BC nullified because the mis-match of Euro data and North American data? Does the old saying, "Garbage in, Garbage out" apply on BC weekend? Does one have to actually read the past performances and make sense of them to have any sense of hope? What your take on this?

[PaceAdvantage]

Anyone can step in poop and have an "edge" on any given weekend. It is my opinion that the handicapper doesn't gain an edge via simply his CHOICE of tool...he gains the edge on how he chooses to LEARN that tool inside and out - its capabilities and limitations, which BOTH PnP and PC-based handicapping have going for and against them.

A handicapper with an edge is someone who has learned to ADAPT...and I believe a handicapper with an edge could FIND that edge NO MATTER which way they chose to go...PnP, PC-based, whatever. In a sense, the edge doesn't come from the tool of choice...the edge comes from WITHIN.

With that said, you can't get blood from a stone, and there are PnP methods and PC-based programs that won't give you anything to work with, no matter how good of a player you are. The handicapper with an edge will recognize that fact sooner rather than later and already will have moved onto greener pastures.

[thaskalos]

Anyone can step in poop and have an "edge" on any given weekend. It is my opinion that the handicapper doesn't gain an edge via simply his CHOICE of tool...he gains the edge on how he chooses to LEARN that tool inside and out - its capabilities and limitations, which BOTH PnP and PC-based handicapping have going for and against them.

A handicapper with an edge is someone who has learned to ADAPT...and I believe a handicapper with an edge could FIND that edge NO MATTER which way they chose to go...PnP, PC-based, whatever. In a sense, the edge doesn't come from the tool of choice...the edge comes from WITHIN.

With that said, you can't get blood from a stone, and there are PnP methods and PC-based programs that won't give you anything to work with, no matter how good of a player you are. The handicapper with an edge will recognize that fact sooner rather than later and already will have moved onto greener pastures.

Could not have said it better myself. :ThmbUp:

The "edge" lies in the craftsman...not in the tools that he chooses to use.

These tools are available to all...but the results vary according to the expertise of those who use them.

[Capper Al]

I disagree and, in a way you do too. One has to alter their methods for the BC weekend either PnP or PC. The PnP isn't dependent on a data stream for their handicapping. The data is a mess. It's a weekend of light sabers not death stars. Most regularly, I would give the edge to the PC capper except a few of the grand races involving Euros where the data stream can't be trusted.

[Capper Al]

Could not have said it better myself. :ThmbUp:

The "edge" lies in the craftsman...not in the tools that he chooses to use.

These tools are available to all...but the results vary according to the expertise of those who use them.

You said it wrong. The point is based on the input of data to the craftman, not the craftsman. Your overall point though is well taken outside of this discussion. Normally everything else being equal it is the expertise that counts. But here the PnP can dance their way around the dirty data whereas the PC capper is pretty much stuck with the garbage in.

[PaceAdvantage]

Well, anything can be debated. I showed a profit with my win picks in the BC races for the Overlay contest on this site, and I used HSH to arrive at those picks.

Let's see if I can do it again today.

Will it prove anything either way? I don't see how.

[Tom]

I disagree and, in a way you do too. One has to alter their methods for the BC weekend either PnP or PC. The PnP isn't dependent on a data stream for their handicapping. The data is a mess. It's a weekend of light sabers not death stars. Most regularly, I would give the edge to the PC capper except a few of the grand races involving Euros where the data stream can't be trusted.

I'm not doing anything differently for this.
I have my data, I know what's winning at SA, an dI have history data to look at.

Other than that, it could be the 6th at Delaware, but with more high odds contenders.

[Capper Al]

How does the PC handle the Euros without the same data? Won't you have to revert to PnP at some point?

[Tom]

No, I have ratings for them, and I have watched replays.
Between CJ and HTR, all I need is covered.

[Capper Al]

No, I have ratings for them, and I have watched replays.
Between CJ and HTR, all I need is covered.

Okay. I rarely look at PPs. I consider this a fault, but there just isn't time to do both PC and PnP. I play strictly by the PC's numbers. You must be using CJ figs to work around the Euro horses. Does HTR do Euros that haven't run in the US? If so, where do they get there data for Euros? My input is BRIS Multicaps.

[Tom]

Some data. No pace or speed, but pedigree, workouts, the K rating....enough to bet from.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'm a little bit of both right now.I just started using RDSS and have CJ's figs,both of which are indispensable to me.After that Al,you know I have my 3 multi colred pens and a head full of steam ready to grind up some PP's!I agree with what I think PA said,you are only as good as the thought you put into any method.

[ronestes]

How do you get Cj's pace figs Thanks Ron

[Gapfire]

Our Gapfire Quickgap figures have shown a consistent edge in the Breeders' Cup races over the years. Friday was not great for us, but Saturday was fantastic. Patience, and good betting decisions are essential, regardless of the handicapping method being used.

[Tom]

I see you did quite nicely Saturday.....congrats.:ThmbUp:

[Aner]

Our Gapfire Quickgap figures have shown a consistent edge in the Breeders' Cup races over the years. Friday was not great for us, but Saturday was fantastic. Patience, and good betting decisions are essential, regardless of the handicapping method being used.

Real nice handicapping.

[Capper Al]

Our Gapfire Quickgap figures have shown a consistent edge in the Breeders' Cup races over the years. Friday was not great for us, but Saturday was fantastic. Patience, and good betting decisions are essential, regardless of the handicapping method being used.

And this was my point from the start. One needs a way to walk around the data problem with the BC as is the case in the quote above. One's regular methods for North American handicapping must be altered for BC weekend. And yes, some can be lucky in any given year. What I'm talking about is over the long run. Favorites are winning in the PC software era about 37-38% over the old 33% back in the day of the PnP capper. But these numbers are not reflected in the BC. It could only mean one thing. PC apps can't handle the BC without modifications. And most likely these modifications are made by hand.

[Tom]

I make no adjustment to my methods.
Using only HTR software, I believe it was 5 double digit winners came up as pace plays. Maybe you need to make adjustments, but that doesn't mean others do. If you have a sound handicapping method, it will handle the BC race just fine. You may find a lot more betting opportunities and adjust your wagering.

[Capper Al]

I make no adjustment to my methods.
Using only HTR software, I believe it was 5 double digit winners came up as pace plays. Maybe you need to make adjustments, but that doesn't mean others do. If you have a sound handicapping method, it will handle the BC race just fine. You may find a lot more betting opportunities and adjust your wagering.

OK, I believe you. I'll just have to do a little more R&D. I did make a little money with the BC this year. I would have made a lot more had I not played so conservative. My reaction to 2011 was to go cautiously and play it safe. Sometimes that cost us too.

[Solid_Gold]

PnP wins everytime in these so called contests. Common sense, knowledge and the ability to adapt are the keys. CP doesn't allow you to adapt?

I'm a PnP guy for all my life and believe the data is best interperted by humans rather than by machine.

[Tom]

Who said the machine interprets the data?