ADP jobs number

[Valuist]

So now the revisions come out. September's number is halved, not surprisingly, but August gains get cut from 189k to under 80k new jobs,

Funny how the administration couldn't wait to front-run the news, yet now we won't hear a peep about it from them.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/31/us-usa-economy-employment-adp-idUSBRE89U1C620121031

[RaceBookJoe]

So now the revisions come out. September's number is halved, not surprisingly, but August gains get cut from 189k to under 80k new jobs,

Funny how the administration couldn't wait to front-run the news, yet now we won't hear a peep about it from them.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/31/us-usa-economy-employment-adp-idUSBRE89U1C620121031

You cant be surprised though. On top of this, a few companies have come out in the past week saying they will be slashing jobs...2000 here, 10k there etc

[mostpost]

So now the revisions come out. September's number is halved, not surprisingly, but August gains get cut from 189k to under 80k new jobs,

Funny how the administration couldn't wait to front-run the news, yet now we won't hear a peep about it from them.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/31/us-usa-economy-employment-adp-idUSBRE89U1C620121031

ADP is not the government. It is a private company putting out its own report. The BLS did not revise its numbers, which may explain why the administration is not commenting. There is no connection between the ADP numbers and the BLS numbers.

ADP revised its report because it has revised its method of surveying employment and unemployment to more closely coincide with the way BLS obtains its figures. That does not mean the numbers will ever be identical.

ADP original numbers: 162,000. New numbers: 88,200
BLS original numbers 114,00. New numbers: Same.

All of this information-with the exception of the BLS number (114,000) is in the link you provide and yet you could not figure it out. :rolleyes:

[Valuist]

ADP is not the government. It is a private company putting out its own report. The BLS did not revise its numbers, which may explain why the administration is not commenting. There is no connection between the ADP numbers and the BLS numbers.

ADP revised its report because it has revised its method of surveying employment and unemployment to more closely coincide with the way BLS obtains its figures. That does not mean the numbers will ever be identical.

ADP original numbers: 162,000. New numbers: 88,200
BLS original numbers 114,00. New numbers: Same.

All of this information-with the exception of the BLS number (114,000) is in the link you provide and yet you could not figure it out. :rolleyes:


Fact of the matter is, the employment numbers suck. You can try and spin it anyway you want, but you can't get around that.

[Tom]

ADP is not the government. It is a private company putting out its own report.

Here's a basic reporting nugget for you - third party supersedes internal reporting. Internal, especially government, tends to be biased.

Biased = they lie! :lol:

[bigmack]

What'll actually be quite entertaining is in the first 6-7 months of Romney's first term, Mostie will be churning out numbers that tell a completely different tale. As fed by MotherJones, MediaMatt, etc...

[kingfin66]

And you and others will be defending the "biased" government numbers.

[Tom]

No, we aren't liberals - we will attack Romney if he fails to perform.
Unike libs, we are looking for results, not blindly following our boy.

[kingfin66]

No you won't. Yes you will. Criticize Romney and blindly follow respectively. In this respects liberals and conservatives are alike.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Let's revisit Tom's opinion of Bush before we're too quick to assume that about him. :D

[pandy]

No you won't. Yes you will. Criticize Romney and blindly follow respectively. In this respects liberals and conservatives are alike.


Tom's right. People forget, but the Tea Party actually started during the Bush presidency because conservatives were tired of electing Republicans who increased spending. Even people like Rush Limbaugh criticized Bush for his big gov't spending. On the other hand, Liberals never seem to want to criticize Democrats. Look at Clinton. Libs love this clown. If you read the Time Magazine piece 25 people most responsible for the financial collapse, it shows

http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1877351_1877350_1877339,00.html


how Clinton, with Alan Greenspan's help, deregulated the mortgage industry, pushed interest rates too low, and completely mishandled Fannie and Freddie. Clinton and Greenspan have both admitted that they screwed up. Then on his last day of work he pardoned Tax Evader Mark Rich because Rich gave him money.

[Tom]

Thank you.......Romney is already on thin ice for screwing up the last debate. :rolleyes:

[bigmack]

No you won't. Yes you will. Criticize Romney and blindly follow respectively. In this respects liberals and conservatives are alike.
You always spout off shit you have no idea about? Piles of us criticized Bush about boatloads of ineptitude.

Now what? Does that blow your whole point? Shame.

Now if you want to talk about blind, heavily indoctrinated allegiance, you need to deal with Mostpost. He's your man. Unless you're trying to point a finger towards one kerner. That would be silly.

[kingfin66]

I stand by my comments. If anybody spouts shit is you. Thread after thread of moronic, wanna-be a cool guy, shit. One day your imaginary nailing a 4th grade teacher, the next your going at it with the owner of the site. In between, you get your ass handed to you by DaHoss. Oh yeah, the cnnn (extra n from you) thread was the height of intelligence. You punk thaskalos who is like the nicest guy ever. You threaten people with violence you could never back up (lunch in Reno) and engaged in behavior that should have gotten your sorry ass, sack of shit ass kicked off the board. Yeah, I'm the one spouting shit.

I wish I could spend time here putting you in your place, but I could never hope to match your 24/7 get a life PA lifestyle because I am very busy living life beyond the computer screen. Fortunately DaHoss is on the job. I'm certain that I am not the only one around here that has been wanting to say to you, "**** off you pathetic phony Lothaio."

[Dahoss9698]

I stand by my comments. If anybody spouts shit is you. Thread after thread of moronic, wanna-be a cool guy, shit. One day your imaginary nailing a 4th grade teacher, the next your going at it with the owner of the site. In between, you get your ass handed to you by DaHoss. Oh yeah, the cnnn (extra n from you) thread was the height of intelligence. You punk thaskalos who is like the nicest guy ever. You threaten people with violence you could never back up (lunch in Reno) and engaged in behavior that should have gotten your sorry ass, sack of shit ass kicked off the board. Yeah, I'm the one spouting shit.

I wish I could spend time here putting you in your place, but I could never hope to match your 24/7 get a life PA lifestyle because I am very busy living life beyond the computer screen. Fortunately DaHoss is on the job. I'm certain that I am not the only one around here that has been wanting to say to you, "**** off you pathetic phony Lothaio."

Post of the year?

[PaceAdvantage]

Post of the year?Not really. It was more of a compendium of insults originally said by you...and me...and maybe one or two others...

There really wasn't much originality there if you bother to look closely enough...kind of disappointing, really...

[Dahoss9698]

Not really. It was more of a compendium of insults originally said by you...and me...and maybe one or two others...

There really wasn't much originality there if you bother to look closely enough...kind of disappointing, really...
You can admit it....you chuckled reading it. How could you not?

Plus, when we talk about a guy whose entire act revolves around posting pictures and videos...does originality matter?

[PaceAdvantage]

You can admit it....you chuckled reading it. How could you not?

Plus, when we talk about a guy whose entire act revolves around posting pictures and videos...does originality matter?Actually, I didn't...I get pissed when people recycle fresh material so soon, rendering it stale and rotten and repetitive...

I mean damn, he even used my "Lothario" reference...and spelled it wrong to boot!

[Dahoss9698]

Actually, I didn't...I get pissed when people recycle fresh material so soon, rendering it stale and rotten and repetitive...

I mean damn, he even used my "Lothario" reference...and spelled it wrong to boot!
At the risk of doing my best Boxcar impression and arguing about nothing at all, I took a moment and read the post again.

I didn't see a lot of recycling. I suppose the lothario line was...but it's a good line and I feel like I might have even used it months ago. I'm not familiar with the lunch in Reno stuff, so it can't be THAT recycled can it?

I think it was a solid breakdown and 'Mack must think so also as he wanted no part of it.

[PaceAdvantage]

I think it was a solid breakdown and 'Mack must think so also as he wanted no part of it.Give him a moment. It's only 11:44 out in Cali...he's probably scrounging the seat cushions assembling cab fare home for his latest conquest... :p

[bigmack]

I'm certain that I am not the only one around here that has been wanting to say to you, "**** off you pathetic phony Lothaio."
Heavens to Betsy, I just seen this. Another HUGE fan, I see.

Looks like you've read every post. FYI - I'm coming out with a bound, coffee table printing, Mid 2013. (Good reading for the kids :ThmbUp: )

Passive/Aggressive much?

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/58.gif

[thaskalos]

Give him a moment. It's only 11:44 out in Cali...he's probably scrounging the seat cushions assembling cab fare home for his latest conquest... :p

And if past history means anything...we'll be getting the details of that conquest real soon...

[PaceAdvantage]

And if past history means anything...we'll be getting the details of that conquest real soon...Wait...do they even have cabs in Cali? :lol:

[Tom]

Keepin' score.....last on topic post was #13.

[HUSKER55]

Tom, are you sure you will be able to count high enough? You are taking on a tough crowd....:D

[Dahoss9698]

Keepin' score.....last on topic post was #13.
Ironically enough, it was the owner of this very site who had the most off topic posts in this thread.

Go get 'em.

[mostpost]

Keepin' score.....last on topic post was #13.
Getting this thread back on topic, just to please Tom.
This morning I was listening to the news. A story came on that the October Jobs Report would be released Friday morning. The story also said that ADP was projecting that 169,000 new job would have been created in October.

I have heard the Thursday morning projections of the Friday report every month, but this is the first time I heard that it was ADP that made the projection. I have always heard it phrased as "Economists say" or "analysts predict."

"So what?" You ask. To which I would reply that the ADP figures are used to access the report released by BLS on the first Friday of each month. For example, last month ADP forecast a gain of about 160,000 jobs in September. When the actual numbers came out on Oct. 5, we found that only 114,000 jobs had been created. This was characterized as job growth not having met expectations.

However ADP has now changed their method of analysis, which indicates to me that their original method was flawed. Under the new method the projected job growth in September was around 86,000. (all these figures are from memory-my memory is quite good). Using the new ADP numbers, job growth in September exceeded expectations by quite a bit.

It's important to remember that the ADP numbers are a projection or prediction of what the BLS numbers will be. The BLS numbers are the official numbers.

Sorry for the interruption. You may now resume your bickering.

[HUSKER55]

SO .....they re-adjusted the figures so they would make the president look better, OR maybe make themselves look better.


why should we be surprised? suppose you found out the readjustment came in anticipation of Romney winning?

that is the problem with bean counters. no standards and no proof and with Obama "NO TRANSPARENCY".

[kingfin66]

Actually, I didn't...I get pissed when people recycle fresh material so soon, rendering it stale and rotten and repetitive...

I mean damn, he even used my "Lothario" reference...and spelled it wrong to boot!

Who really cares whether you get pissed or not? You fail to stand up to certain people who post here - ok, really just one - and do the right thing, so I will do it for you.

I left an r out of Lothario. Does that really worry you Mr. Kotter? I use a touch screen. They suck. Sorry, I will be sure to help you out in similar situations and am certain that you will help others just as you have helped me. All part of being fair and unbiased right?

It was no shock to see a conservative railing about recycling, even when it pertains to posts, but let's go ahead and talk about it. From my reading of posts (not all as was suggested by my new BFF), the one thing that I see recycled the most is you lamenting supposed media bias. As in, "can you imagine what they would have said if poor Bush was the prez?" You say it time and time again, thus, recycling yourself.

Maybe instead of jumping me about my response to your resident sociopath, you should spend a little scolding him for his response to what was a reasonable post. You see, Mr. K, I am actually one of those independents that your boy covets next Tuesday. And, lest you paint me as some big liberal go back and search my few OT posts to see my opinion about the pres and politicians in general.

Sorry to have disappointed you this time, Mr. Kotter, I will try to do better next time and come up with fresh material. Maybe you could model that behavior for me.

[kingfin66]

You can admit it....you chuckled reading it. How could you not?

Plus, when we talk about a guy whose entire act revolves around posting pictures and videos...does originality matter?

Hope you were laughing with me!

[Dahoss9698]

Hope you were laughing with me!
Of course.

[mostpost]

SO .....they re-adjusted the figures so they would make the president look better, OR maybe make themselves look better.


why should we be surprised? suppose you found out the readjustment came in anticipation of Romney winning?

that is the problem with bean counters. no standards and no proof and with Obama "NO TRANSPARENCY".
This is so simple it is astounding that you cannot understand it. ADP is NOT a part of the government. They have no reason to make Obama look better or worse. They may want to make themselves look better by posting accurate numbers. The private company revised their numbers; the government did not revise its numbers.

"anticipation of Romney winning" Are you kidding me? There is no anticipation of Romney winning except among delusional people like bigmack.

that is the problem with bean counters. no standards and no proof and with Obama "NO TRANSPARENCY"


The very definition of "bean counter" is a person who has an over riding devotion to numbers and standards. Your statement would only be valid if we all lived in opposite world. Equally idiotic is saying that there is no proof and no transparency. The BLS website spells out exactly how they arrive at their employment and unemployment numbers.

[thaskalos]

Hope you were laughing with me!

I was laughing too...and agreeing with every word.

Especially the part about thaskalos being the nicest guy ever... :blush:

[kingfin66]

You always maintain a high degree of professionalism in your posts, but people should worry when you call them "friend."

[kingfin66]

I'm not familiar with the lunch in Reno stuff, so it can't be THAT recycled can it?



Post #6 (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=97986&highlight=tahoe)

[kingfin66]

Heavens to Betsy, I just seen this. Another HUGE fan, I see.

Looks like you've read every post. FYI - I'm coming out with a bound, coffee table printing, Mid 2013. (Good reading for the kids :ThmbUp: )

Passive/Aggressive much?

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/58.gif

It seems to me that you have some serious homoerotic yearnings going on. Very disturbing ones at that. It just one more thing you should seek help for.

[PaceAdvantage]

Who really cares whether you get pissed or not? You fail to stand up to certain people who post here - ok, really just one - and do the right thing, so I will do it for you.

I left an r out of Lothario. Does that really worry you Mr. Kotter? I use a touch screen. They suck. Sorry, I will be sure to help you out in similar situations and am certain that you will help others just as you have helped me. All part of being fair and unbiased right?

It was no shock to see a conservative railing about recycling, even when it pertains to posts, but let's go ahead and talk about it. From my reading of posts (not all as was suggested by my new BFF), the one thing that I see recycled the most is you lamenting supposed media bias. As in, "can you imagine what they would have said if poor Bush was the prez?" You say it time and time again, thus, recycling yourself.

Maybe instead of jumping me about my response to your resident sociopath, you should spend a little scolding him for his response to what was a reasonable post. You see, Mr. K, I am actually one of those independents that your boy covets next Tuesday. And, lest you paint me as some big liberal go back and search my few OT posts to see my opinion about the pres and politicians in general.

Sorry to have disappointed you this time, Mr. Kotter, I will try to do better next time and come up with fresh material. Maybe you could model that behavior for me.I fail to stand up to bigmack? Really now... :lol:

The next time you think about going on a rant, you might want to read some more recent posts...

[PaceAdvantage]

It seems to me that you have some serious homoerotic yearnings going on.For squirrels? :eek:

[bigmack]

It seems to me that you have some serious homoerotic yearnings going on. Very disturbing ones at that. It just one more thing you should seek help for.
Mighty flattering you reading EVERY SINGLE ONE of my posts, and know how to back reference as well. :ThmbUp: Refresh me, around what time of the year did I have a have a ménage à trois with a couple of women? I have pictures, that are dated, but you follow my semi-professional activities closer than anyone, so I figure you can rattle that off. Be a good boy and find that out for me.

Tell me more of yourself. I got the part where you feel people with gay thoughts need to seek to help. That seems rather Neanderthal, no?

Tell me about your boreass life. Greyman/greywall?

At least this world has some characters unlike passive/aggressive nerds like you.

BOO! :D

[mountainman]

You guys have elevated this stuff to an art form. Highly entertaining.

[bigmack]

You guys have elevated this stuff to an art form. Highly entertaining.
Agreed. :ThmbUp: Sometimes it's a ball. :D

[kingfin66]

I fail to stand up to bigmack? Really now... :lol:

The next time you think about going on a rant, you might want to read some more recent posts...

One day, you tell him that he spends to much time on the board. A short time later you are guffawing with him about the women on CNN. There have been threads where he has severely insulted you and dared you to give in the boot.

The next time you decide to chide me you may wish to consider that I have (usually regrettably) read the recent posts on this board. Consider this, I am usually pretty quiet and only post in OT on rare occasions. Did you every stop to consider that maybe people get to the point where they have seen enough and decide it's time to say something?

Now he posting about threesomes on your board. Now, that is funny. What is even more funny, actually more gross, is envisioning what kind of pathetic women would do that with him. There is no puke emoticon so... :eek:

[bigmack]

Did you every stop to consider that maybe people get to the point where they have seen enough and decide it's time to say something?
That's passive/aggressive. See, you're learning something about yourself here. :ThmbUp:

Some people can drink in stories from others and find them colorful and amusing. For folk like you & danag, & nag, & nag; it's a matter of UTTER RESENTMENT.

I get that a lot. :lol:

But DO keep up with my posts. We need to fill the shithole that'll be left by Mr. "The world is coming to an end, if Z gets HoY"..

[Dahoss9698]

Interesting deletions in this thread. Not surprising..but interesting nonetheless.

[Dahoss9698]

That's passive/aggressive. See, you're learning something about yourself here. :ThmbUp:

Some people can drink in stories from others and find them colorful and amusing. For folk like you & danag, & nag, & nag; it's a matter of UTTER RESENTMENT.

I get that a lot. :lol:

But DO keep up with my posts. We need to fill the shithole that'll be left by Mr. "The world is coming to an end, if Z gets HoY"..

What is colorful and amusing about made up stories about conquests with women?

It's low class and lame.

You're so desperate to look "colorful" (to strangers) that you fail to see how dumb you look.

But hey, only a few more days. Get them all out now.

[johnhannibalsmith]

What is colorful and amusing about made up stories about conquests with women?

It's low class and lame.

You're so desperate to look "colorful" (to strangers) that you fail to see how dumb you look.

But hey, only a few more days. Get them all out now.

Sometimes the comedy is strictly in the reaction conduct solicits.

1uQlB99WCuk

[PaceAdvantage]

This is a thread about ADP jobs number, right? Come on fellas...

**** me... :rolleyes: